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Post by fatjohn1408 on Feb 25, 2019 13:37:28 GMT
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Post by mondeoman on Feb 25, 2019 22:53:49 GMT
It's only weather,....
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Post by Ratty on Feb 26, 2019 0:26:41 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 26, 2019 4:11:14 GMT
That was before the Southwest got buried? Now that is weather too. Oh where oh where did our climate go?
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 26, 2019 4:16:20 GMT
It would appear they have lost their joules.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 1, 2019 21:33:50 GMT
Was Ice Max already passed on Feb 22nd?
Thanks to the Bering melt we are over 250,000 below that provisional high and still a few days melt for the Pacific side.
But then I'm wondering at the storms we are about to see this side of the pond and the energy they could impart to our side of the basin?
We could see quite an extension out into the rest of Barentsz and Greenland should we see big swells disrupt the pack ( and refreeze where shattered/drifted?)
Ice seems thin in the Alaskan river 'breakout' thread?
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Post by Ratty on Mar 1, 2019 21:53:21 GMT
Was Ice Max already passed on Feb 22nd? Thanks to the Bering melt we are over 250,000 below that provisional high and still a few days melt for the Pacific side. But then I'm wondering at the storms we are about to see this side of the pond and the energy they could impart to our side of the basin? We could see quite an extension out into the rest of Barentsz and Greenland should we see big swells disrupt the pack ( and refreeze where shattered/drifted?) Ice seems thin in the Alaskan river 'breakout' thread? Good to see you back GW. I've been watching the ice and expecting you ....
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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 1, 2019 23:14:23 GMT
Was Ice Max already passed on Feb 22nd? Thanks to the Bering melt we are over 250,000 below that provisional high and still a few days melt for the Pacific side. But then I'm wondering at the storms we are about to see this side of the pond and the energy they could impart to our side of the basin? We could see quite an extension out into the rest of Barentsz and Greenland should we see big swells disrupt the pack ( and refreeze where shattered/drifted?) Ice seems thin in the Alaskan river 'breakout' thread? GW, good to see you! I think when that arctic air shifts down into the Great Lakes it is typical for Alaska to be warmer than normal. The Laurentide Ice Sheet spared most of Alaska.
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Post by wheels59 on Mar 1, 2019 23:32:31 GMT
Greywolf before you go forecasting more destruction of the arctic ice could you please explain what happened to the perfect storm scenario for 2017 that you forecast for a good few years before, that would leave the arctic virtually ice free.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 2, 2019 1:42:33 GMT
Greywolf before you go forecasting more destruction of the arctic ice could you please explain what happened to the perfect storm scenario for 2017 that you forecast for a good few years before, that would leave the arctic virtually ice free. That would be good to hear ... given that the science is settled and all. The ice will find a way.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 2, 2019 2:47:50 GMT
South. 😂
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Post by graywolf on Mar 3, 2019 0:24:17 GMT
After the low of 2007 the bod's came up with a return period for the 'perfect melt storm' .This was every 10 to 20 years with the two prior to 07' showing a ten year cycle?
If we have wrecked the old cycling of the Arctic then it will not respect its old cycling .
If it does return we will go sub million km that Sept.
In the meantime the 'new' processing of the Arctic basin makes it ever easier for an 'Average summer' synoptic to drop us sub million?
The current melt across Bering (and into the basin?) means a near certain early open water again for the Pacific side of the basin.
Watch the ingress of Pacific waters ( via their salinity) over the melt season.
See how far they now eat into that side of the basin now.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 3, 2019 0:59:00 GMT
I expect to live another 50 years. During my longgg lifetime I will not observe a summer ice free Arctic.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 3, 2019 2:53:29 GMT
After the low of 2007 the bod's came up with a return period for the 'perfect melt storm' .This was every 10 to 20 years with the two prior to 07' showing a ten year cycle? If we have wrecked the old cycling of the Arctic then it will not respect its old cycling . If it does return we will go sub million km that Sept. In the meantime the 'new' processing of the Arctic basin makes it ever easier for an 'Average summer' synoptic to drop us sub million? The current melt across Bering (and into the basin?) means a near certain early open water again for the Pacific side of the basin. Watch the ingress of Pacific waters ( via their salinity) over the melt season. See how far they now eat into that side of the basin now. Well, tomorrow is another day Mr Wolf. When was the first time the Arctic was going to be ice free? Was it 2005? I forget. But every couple of years like clock work there is another year. Perhaps 2010 or 2015 or now is it 2020? Pretty unsettled for a settled science don't you think. But AOC now has the truth. We're all gonna be dead in 12 years. Don't you all ever get tired of being right? And after all of the tired failures and excuses, I don't believe anything you people say anymore. And frankly my dear, I don't give a damn (with apologies to Clark Gable). And neither do a sizable portion of the people in my small area of the world.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 3, 2019 16:31:50 GMT
I think I was as shocked as most other folk with the drop we saw in 07'? Up until that juncture I'd assumed 'ice free' was as long way into our warming?
The changes we have seen across the basin this past 5 years has done nothing but convince me that instead of waiting for 'big events' to come around and take the ice we should have been witnessing the basin preparing itself to go 'ice free' over 'average' seasons?
Though hampered by the extent/area confines ( 15% or more) a visual check of the amount of open water,compered to floes, above 80N will show a steady increase in open water over melt seasons end compared to previous seasons and a decrease in the average flow size as we move forward in time
If the areas with lowest insolation for the shortest period is headed in this direction then what of the areas we now consider seasonally ice free and the dates of that 'ice free' periods onset. The recent addition of bering and the bering half of beaufort to the 'early ice free' club must bring impacts via the added energy they can now absorb and pass into the basin.
Anyhoo's this might already be into melt season 2019 and another year within the time range for the perfect melt storm to come around again?
With the timings for the 'over 7,000' pingo like hillocks that grew across Yamal in 2016 , also now up for going pop ( according to Prof Semiletov) it will be another long and interesting season!
Remember the I.P.O. puts up to 0.5c worth of warming into its Ocean areas of impact and we have only been in its positive phase since 2014? Already Antarctica's sea ice appears to have responded to the flip and Bering ,this past 2 years, also seems to be holding less ice/melting out earlier?
As this 'natural forcing' increases (warming the sst's)so will the AGW 'warming signals' also warm the waters and all complimented by the areas of the Pacific that China's sulphates/particulates blighted the past couple of decades, seeing ever more of the energy, currently available at the top of the atmosphere, to again be reaching the surface below as China continues to clean up its act and so clean their immediate atmosphere (and so also warming the waters it hits).
All in all the Alaskan current will be feeding ever warmer , ever saltier, waters into the Pacific side of the basin for the rest of I.P.O's positive phase ( another 26 years?).
I wonder how close , on the surface , Atlantic waters are now from the Pacific waters in the central Basin?
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