zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Jan 16, 2013 21:42:52 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 17, 2013 0:33:21 GMT
Hi Siggy! I've got to look at the shortfall in grain production , and the price hikes we've endured, over the past 4 years as 'extreme weather' impacts crop output? I even saw a U.S. article saying that some of the corn crops you were able to harvest were blighted with a carcinogenic 'mold'? Any truth in this report? Mt own beloved 'Chips' (you'd call them fries) have seen a price hike as so much of the crop rotted in the ground last year so I have to wonder about the 'warmer world' producing more yeild? As for 'heat' energy. If you look at the land surfaces that used to hold year round snow patches, now melted, where does the energy that is now being accrued by this land now go? We don't only have the energy that used to be spent melting the snow each year (whilst it was an enduring snow patch and not just seasonal snow cover) but also this new 'heat' that the land is able to now produce? We know the permafrost is melting across the north and the 'melted biomass' now drying to the point that we see the kind of fires we have recently witnessed across russia and Canada over the last 5 years ( we had images of the 'black carbon from Canada drifting over Greenland last summer?) so is this where the enerrgy is being set to work? The paper on 'black carbon' may be a warning about the impact of these fires on the Greenland ice sheet and it's lowering albedo?? Our current record snow levels across the northern hemisphere will be a great interest come spring. Let us see if our current trend of earlier melt out dates is impacted by the increase in snow or whether we now have enough of a change to maintain the earlier melt out dates? I remember record U.S. snow levels not impacting this trend 3 or 4 years ago? Plenty more to go at but No.1 son demands my return! Graywolf: Potatoes are a cool season crop, but they are also a C4 crop. Even tho there was very little moisture this growing year in the Red River Valley, the spud crop was good. Idaho, a large potatoe growing area that has irrigation had the largest yield per acre on record. As far as aflatoxin in corn, yes, it was present. It is always present to some degree. The corn that has high levels will be mixed with corn with low levels and used. www.ansci.cornell.edu/plants/toxicagents/aflatoxin/aflatoxin.html
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 17, 2013 0:35:51 GMT
zaphod: Thank you for the link.
The paper only mentions Sweden, but think of all the peat bogs world wide. Another natural CO2 sink it would seem.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 17, 2013 0:43:46 GMT
Graywolf: Back to world Ag production. Even with areas of marginal production, actual tonnage of food and feed has increased every year for over 40 years. This has been the result of a warmer climate. When one examines paleo data, it is very easy to find times of coolness when cereal production was not sufficient to support the population.
Warmth is production ags friend, cold is ag productions enemy.
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Post by karlox on Jan 17, 2013 6:51:23 GMT
Graywolf: Back to world Ag production. Even with areas of marginal production, actual tonnage of food and feed has increased every year for over 40 years. This has been the result of a warmer climate. When one examines paleo data, it is very easy to find times of coolness when cereal production was not sufficient to support the population. Warmth is production ags friend, cold is ag productions enemy. As it gets colder further south it gets dryier and more water gets trapped into ice-snow? Probably other planets areas could get more humid? But it takes time to move to where food can be better grown and produced... so I´d rather have it warrmer but away from increase of extreme weather events... but that would be like our wishful common shared thinking and best wishes, wouldn´t it be?
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Post by thermostat on Jan 20, 2013 5:33:27 GMT
The latest PIOMAS estimate of Arctic Sea Ice Volume has recently been released; psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/Extrapolating the observed melt forward... sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas(apparently you need to manually paste the URL in yourself if you want to see the data.) Nevertheless, fascinating. It seems that it will take some unknown physical force to counter the ongoing observed Arctic Sea Ice melt. More likely, the physics guys have it right, ie., the Arctic Sea ice will continue to melt away as we watch. (and guys, really, it is not the sun. We have all been following the Solar Cycle 24 web site way too long to believe the sun is actively driving current events with the Arctic Sea Ice.)
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 20, 2013 5:41:45 GMT
"Examination of records of fast ice thickness (1936–2000) and ice extent (1900–2000) in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas provide evidence that long-term ice thickness and extent trends are small and generally not statistically significant, while trends for shorter records are not indicative of the long-termtendencies due to large-amplitude low-frequency variability. The ice variability in these seas is dominated by a multidecadal, low-frequency oscillation (LFO) and (to a lesser degree) by higher-frequency decadal fluctuations." journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C2078%3ALIVIAM%3E2.0.CO%3B2
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 20, 2013 5:44:08 GMT
Thermostat: I am not confident at all in your post that the Arctic Sea Ice will continue to melt away.
I am still mulling over my 4.3 for 2013 prediction.
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Post by thermostat on Jan 20, 2013 5:47:48 GMT
"Examination of records of fast ice thickness (1936–2000) and ice extent (1900–2000) in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas provide evidence that long-term ice thickness and extent trends are small and generally not statistically significant, while trends for shorter records are not indicative of the long-termtendencies due to large-amplitude low-frequency variability. The ice variability in these seas is dominated by a multidecadal, low-frequency oscillation (LFO) and (to a lesser degree) by higher-frequency decadal fluctuations." journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C2078%3ALIVIAM%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Published in 2002. Interesting historical perspective of some sort. Agreed.
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Post by thermostat on Jan 20, 2013 5:50:47 GMT
Thermostat: I am not confident at all in your post that the Arctic Sea Ice will continue to melt away. I am still mulling over my 4.3 for 2013 prediction. sigurdur, Do you see some physical factor that will reverse the present melting? What is it?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 20, 2013 5:53:41 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 20, 2013 5:55:14 GMT
Thermostat: Annual Air temps in the Arctic are not an important item at present concerning Arctic Ice.
What is important is the black carbon load and the pressure systems.
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Post by thermostat on Jan 20, 2013 6:01:26 GMT
Thermostat: Annual Air temps in the Arctic are not an important item at present concerning Arctic Ice. What is important is the black carbon load and the pressure systems. sigurdur, We have both observed together as the Arctic Sea Ice has melted over recent years. What makes you think it will stop melting now?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 20, 2013 6:07:16 GMT
nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/Thermostat: It won't stop melting, as that is what it does during the summer. I was looking at Canadian Ice records from the 30's and 40's. While those records do not reveal the extent of the Labador, etc seas, they do show a rebound cyclically. What has changed now is the black carbon load embedded in the Arctic Ice. How much this load will slow the increase in summer Arctic Ice remains to be seen. I am trying to find dispersion records as of late to see the potential dump of black carbon.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 20, 2013 6:09:27 GMT
Published literature shows that Black Carbon is responsible for over 60% of the current ice melt. That 60%, in addition to the cyclical ice patterns of the past 100 years, would indicate a slower rebound than would be expected.
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