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Post by icefisher on May 26, 2014 14:40:36 GMT
For guys who hate climate models you seem pretty much attached to the CFSv2 atm? If you look at the predicted ice levels across the East Siberian sector you'll note that we already have record levels of open water there ( due partly to the record temps across Siberia this past number of weeks )so the model is already busted over that sector ( unless you expect major ice formation there over the coming months...lol) . The wildfires across the tundra regions ( 6 weeks earlier than ever recorded according to the Russian minister dealing with them) are also not helping the east Siberian sector as the smoke is drawn into the basin there coating the ice/snow with soot. Is your CFSv2 taking 'soot' into account with its modelling chappies? Graywolf the CFSv2 models have the open ice of the past 2 weeks as its initial conditions so its incorrect to say that busts the model. Whether the model is correct or not will be interesting to see. Right now it looks like the September average ice would be a little bit over 4.0mmsqkm putting it in terms of the Cryosphere anomaly. The summer low point would likely be somewhat lower so 3.9mmsqkm I picked is looking sweeter. Whats the deal Graywolf. . . .no sick paleocrystic ice this year? I figured you would have had a big piece on that. I don't see your prediction on the poll. Have you given up making predictions? If not, what is your prediction?
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Post by sigurdur on May 26, 2014 15:29:54 GMT
For guys who hate climate models you seem pretty much attached to the CFSv2 atm? If you look at the predicted ice levels across the East Siberian sector you'll note that we already have record levels of open water there ( due partly to the record temps across Siberia this past number of weeks )so the model is already busted over that sector ( unless you expect major ice formation there over the coming months...lol) . The wildfires across the tundra regions ( 6 weeks earlier than ever recorded according to the Russian minister dealing with them) are also not helping the east Siberian sector as the smoke is drawn into the basin there coating the ice/snow with soot. Is your CFSv2 taking 'soot' into account with its modelling chappies? The upcoming reversal of the B Gyre is also of interest as 'throwing the brakes on' will surely serve to rip open the fractures we saw develop in feb/march? With opwn water already present across east Siberia sea there is plenty of room for such fragmentation to flow into ( and so melt). Note also the sst anoms coming in through Bering. The lack of ice across Bering this winter has allowed the Pacific warm pool very early access to the basin from Bering and this will join into the ESS open water ( not good for the submerged permafrost and methane deposits it holds). Also be mindful of the way the Pacific waters work through the basin esp. the branch that takes the NWP deep channel exiting into Baffin. With such elevated temps across the N Pacific (Positive PDO territory) we might also expect to see stronger storms form over the Bering side and into the pacific side of the basin as the temp contrast from warm ocean/land hits any ice cover in the central basin? As for our side of the basin? Well the ice levels across Barentsz and Greenland Sea tell the tale there with the early season 'drift' flooding ice over elevated ssts through late march/April. As we approach the 'June Cliff' there appears to be a large amount of ice ripe for the melting? As with any prediction, including AGW catastrophe, there are a lot of "ifs". A model of prediction is only useful in 20-20 hindsight, as all of the assumptions would have to be met. I still think it is going to be a low ice year because of currents. Temperature has very little to do with the actual "melt".
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Post by graywolf on May 27, 2014 10:35:06 GMT
Rapid break up of the Lincoln Sea ice now ongoing due to the stresses induced from the low over the C.A. and the high across the basin. Folk need to be mindful of how much of the ice, now lost to the basin, was lost via its physical transportation from the basin into areas where ice cannot exist rather than by in-situ melt? When looking at the basin folk should always check to see if ice is being dragged away from safe areas and into dying zones. The mass of ice that shifted into Greenland/Barentsz this year is just such an event yet I've seen commentators holding up the increase in Greenland/Barentsz as a positive sign of 'growth' Back to Lincoln. Were we not told that the ice there was in excess of 5m thick? Looking at MODIS does not show the behaviour of such ice ( unless all the breakup is along old , refrozen. lead lines?) With the forecast influx of warm airs over the coming week 2014 is still not acting anything like 2013. All those expecting a repeat of last year might think on that? Maybe as little as 1 week to go before we see the beginning of the 'June Cliff'? How will the basin be looking in 4 weeks time? Looks very likely that we will have lots of open water over the east Siberian sector and that Barentsz/Greenland will be making inroads into the ice exported there? For me Beaufort will be the place of interest with both the Bering imports and an open ESS showing impact?
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Post by icefisher on May 28, 2014 5:48:30 GMT
Rapid break up of the Lincoln Sea ice now ongoing due to the stresses induced from the low over the C.A. and the high across the basin. Folk need to be mindful of how much of the ice, now lost to the basin, was lost via its physical transportation from the basin into areas where ice cannot exist rather than by in-situ melt? When looking at the basin folk should always check to see if ice is being dragged away from safe areas and into dying zones. The mass of ice that shifted into Greenland/Barentsz this year is just such an event yet I've seen commentators holding up the increase in Greenland/Barentsz as a positive sign of 'growth' Back to Lincoln. Were we not told that the ice there was in excess of 5m thick? Looking at MODIS does not show the behaviour of such ice ( unless all the breakup is along old , refrozen. lead lines?) With the forecast influx of warm airs over the coming week 2014 is still not acting anything like 2013. All those expecting a repeat of last year might think on that? Maybe as little as 1 week to go before we see the beginning of the 'June Cliff'? How will the basin be looking in 4 weeks time? Looks very likely that we will have lots of open water over the east Siberian sector and that Barentsz/Greenland will be making inroads into the ice exported there? For me Beaufort will be the place of interest with both the Bering imports and an open ESS showing impact? Hmmmmmm. . . .well your prediction this year is just like last year! So why not? Have you changed anything in your model that would prevent your prediction being as screwed up this year as it was last year? Graywolf: (March 2013)"To be honest Siggy I'm a little concerned by it all? I thought that , unlike 07', we would see a similar melt to last year but this fracture event has me spooked. I was quite happy talking about an ice free basin by 2030 in the hope that this would help raise concern over the changes we see in the basin but now I'm starting to think the unthinkable regarding the upcoming melt season?
I know that 'average weather' over the basin can produce 07' type melts these days (and even 2012's?) but has 2012 altered things to the same scale as 07' did? Can this really mean another drop in levels like we saw last summer and could this drop be approaching the volume that will be overcome by ocean warmth in late season?
I will follow the season with interest but I hope that what I see will lessen this churning to the pit of my stomach that I get from looking at things as they stand and projecting forward.
I've always maintained that most folk who voice concerns are not promoting further change but fearful of it (and it's consequences) and it is this fear I have a.t.m."
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Post by graywolf on May 28, 2014 9:55:19 GMT
The only thing that gave us last year was a melt season as conducive to ice retention as the 'perfect melt storm of 07' was to ice loss?
Why should I not go again with the 'average' weather for the melt season ( and then temper September ice levels by the experience of what they have brought us in the post 07' Arctic)?
I still think the odds for two 'back to back' years conducive for ice retention would be as rare as two years ,back to back, with a 'perfect melt storm' synoptic.
The average melt year of 2010 cost us a record volume loss. this was only possible due to the conditioning of the pack that 07' brought with it. 2012 was only possible because of the volume drop ( and total destruction of the remnant paleocryistic) that 2010 gave us. 2012 was another 'average weather year' across the basin.
If we see the 'average year' now bringing us record drops in ice extent/area/volume then why is it so wrong to think that the year will , more than likely, be another 'average' one?
You will note I have not predicted a year conducive to ice melt ( like 07') across my postings since 07' as I place faith in the study showing such events only occur once every 10 to 20 years ( with the two prior to 07' being spaced 10yrs apart). Maybe in 2017 I will be reminding folk that the 'perfect melt storm' is now due but before then?
This does not mean we will not find ourselves seeing a year that is more of a melting year than the 'average weather year' but this would be more uncommon than an 'average melt year'?
As such I will stick with my prediction of it being another bog standard year and look to what ice levels have been like over 'bog standard years' since 07' to guide me in my guesses of what September will bring?
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Post by magellan on May 29, 2014 4:13:29 GMT
I'm sure if we reviewed the Arctic threads, according to PIOMAS there should only be a few ice cubes left by now. By George, I found one from January last year. Unfortunately the original thread was deleted by Kevin. solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/1916/arctic-ice?page=81&scrollTo=87106I'm not searching for it, but some of us joked in years past about how PIOMAS would suddenly reverse the "death spiral" once it became obvious their numbers were ludicrous. Lo and behold, read at the bottom of their info page (where it is near impossible to locate the raw data now). psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/Look at the latest 2014 PIOMAS graph. I then dove into the depths of sewage stench at Neven's for a graph from PIOMAS dated May 2012 over which he and fellow inmates at the assylum were in their usual perpetual state of depression over the destruction of the planet. Compare to the 2014 graph. Ah yes, a miraculous discovery of an error, just before the Arctic meltdown countdown hit midnight. Just to make sure my memory wasn't faded too much, I pulled up one of the infamous Arctic "expert" Mark Serreze' prophetic utterances from 2010, the same year he said the Bering Sea ice was just a "fluke": www.ipsnews.net/2010/09/arctic-ice-in-death-spiral/Some are saying Lake Superior will be ice free in 2014. Do you think it's possible Graywolf?
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Post by icefisher on May 29, 2014 14:40:47 GMT
I talked to an expert in optics and he told me that it was possible to see a reflection in a prism when held at the proper angle in winter. What is interesting is that the metrics used to decode the satellite data was revised again to reflect reality. Not sure if winter or summer changed the satellite metrics. trbixler, Are you suggesting that there is a conspiracy? Only if you want to call confirmation bias greatly amplified by herd mentality a conspiracy!
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Post by douglavers on May 29, 2014 22:16:14 GMT
weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifI have seen very little commentary on the huge plume of extremely cold water in the seas near Japan, not to mention a very cold Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic. I think the latter have interesting implications for the Gulf Stream [aka North Atlantic Drift]. How do these vast areas of anomalously cold water form?
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Post by glennkoks on May 30, 2014 0:50:34 GMT
weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifI have seen very little commentary on the huge plume of extremely cold water in the seas near Japan, not to mention a very cold Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic. I think the latter have interesting implications for the Gulf Stream [aka North Atlantic Drift]. How do these vast areas of anomalously cold water form? Doug, Surface SST's in the Gulf of Mexico are probably due to colder than normal winter and spring for the region. As recent as a week or two ago Houston tied a 125 year old record low of 47 degrees. Much below average for this area. In addition there has been a pretty good amount of rain the last few weeks which is probably keeping it cooler as well. From the link you provided the SST's for much of the Atlantic and Gulf look much more like a negative phase of the AMO than a positive one. Is this the start of a trend to a cooler atlantic or just a short term anomaly? The past winter felt like a throwback to the 1970's. At least in the U.S. west of the Rockies.
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Post by flearider on May 30, 2014 6:30:26 GMT
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Post by throttleup on Jul 18, 2014 22:10:05 GMT
Holy cow! Don't let Graywolf see this!uafcornerstone.net/arctic_lakes_july2014/New University of Alaska Fairbanks research indicates that arctic thermokarst lakes stabilize climate change by storing more greenhouse gases than they emit into the atmosphere. Countering a widely held view that thawing permafrost accelerates atmospheric warming, a study published this week in the scientific journal Nature suggests arctic thermokarst lakes are “net climate coolers” when observed over longer, millennial, time scales. “Until now, we’ve only thought of thermokarst lakes as positive contributors to climate warming,” says lead researcher Katey Walter Anthony, associate research professor at the UAF Institute of Northern Engineering. “It is true that they do warm climate by strong methane emissions when they first form, but on a longer-term scale, they switch to become climate coolers because they ultimately soak up more carbon from the atmosphere than they ever release.” Found in the Arctic and cold mountain regions, thermokarst lakes occur as permafrost thaws and creates surface depressions that fill with melted fresh water, converting what was previously frozen land into lakes. Researchers observed that roughly 5,000 years ago, thermokarst lakes in ice-rich regions of northern Siberia and Alaska began cooling, instead of warming the atmosphere. “While methane and carbon dioxide emissions following thaw lead to immediate radiative warming,” the authors write, “carbon uptake in peat-rich sediments occurs over millennial time scales.” Using published data from the circumpolar arctic, their own new field observations of Siberian permafrost and thermokarsts, radiocarbon dating, atmospheric modeling, and spatial analyses, the research team studied how thawing permafrost is affecting climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. Researchers found that “thermokarst basins switched from a net radiative warming to a net cooling climate effect about 5,000 years ago,” according to their article, published online today. They found that high rates of carbon accumulation in lake sediments were stimulated by several factors, including “thermokarst erosion and deposition of terrestrial organic matter, nutrient release from thawing permafrost that stimulated lake productivity, and by slow decomposition in cold, anoxic lake bottoms.” “These lakes are being fertilized by thawing yedoma permafrost,” explained co-author Miriam Jones, research geologist for the U.S. Geological Survey. Yedoma is a type of permafrost that is rich in organic material. “So mosses and other plants flourish in these lakes, leading to carbon uptake rates that are among the highest in the world, even compared to carbon-rich peatlands.” The study also revealed another major factor of this process: Researchers found that when the lakes drain, previously thawed organic-rich lake sediments refreeze. The new permafrost formation then stores a large amount of carbon processed in and under thermokarst lakes, as well as the peat that formed after lake drainage. Researchers note that the new carbon storage is not forever, since future warming will likely start rethawing some of the permafrost and release some of the carbon in it via microbial decomposition. Because roughly 30 percent of global permafrost carbon is concentrated within 7 percent of the permafrost region in Alaska, Canada and Siberia, this study’s findings also renew scientific interest in how carbon uptake by thermokarst lakes offsets greenhouse gas emissions. Through its data collection, the study expanded the circumpolar peat carbon pool estimate for permafrost regions by more than 50 percent. This international collaboration has received funding or support from the Alfred Wegener Institute, National Science Foundation, University of Alaska Fairbanks and U.S. Geological Survey. It also included researchers from the Far-East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences; University of Minnesota; University of Florida; Max Planck Institute for Terrestrial Microbiology; and University of New Hampshire. THIS... calls for one of these...
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jul 18, 2014 22:54:24 GMT
I think Greywolf is already crying into his Methane Ice as he begins to wake up to the fact that his wet El Nino hot dream will not happen again this year...
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 19, 2014 7:04:29 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Jul 19, 2014 23:00:21 GMT
The following exchange came from an article in the Australian Business Spectator.
“Doug Lavers, July 18, 2014 8:50 Please bear in mind that planetary temperatures have been essentially stable for 17 years. The Sun is now eerily quiet, and very reminiscent of the Maunder Minimum era. There are good reasons to think that planetary temperatures will now start to fall. If/when this happens, I hope we will get a decent apology from the politicians, scientists, and green activists who will have collectively squandered our wealth. This is hope rather than expectation. • Reply • Permalink R. Ambrose Raven, July 19, 2014 15:05 When we suffer very serious damaging climate change, I hope we will get a decent apology from the politicians, scientists, and denialists who will have collectively squandered our future. This is hope rather than expectation.”
There is a lack of appreciation of the deadliness of cold. The human race would survive a rise of 2 to 3 degrees in planetary temperature. A fall of the same magnitude would cause the death of vast numbers of people as a large part of Northern Hemisphere agriculture failed.
A full blown Ice Age would obliterate our civilisation.
90% of the last million years has been Ice Age, and it is possible we are reaching the end of our Interglacial.
In fairness to Mr Raven, we both believe we are on an historical knife edge. I hope his view is more correct, but I have a strong view that the next three years will differentiate the science.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 20, 2014 20:46:59 GMT
The following exchange came from an article in the Australian Business Spectator. “Doug Lavers, July 18, 2014 8:50 Please bear in mind that planetary temperatures have been essentially stable for 17 years. The Sun is now eerily quiet, and very reminiscent of the Maunder Minimum era. There are good reasons to think that planetary temperatures will now start to fall. If/when this happens, I hope we will get a decent apology from the politicians, scientists, and green activists who will have collectively squandered our wealth. This is hope rather than expectation. • Reply • Permalink R. Ambrose Raven, July 19, 2014 15:05 When we suffer very serious damaging climate change, I hope we will get a decent apology from the politicians, scientists, and denialists who will have collectively squandered our future. This is hope rather than expectation.” There is a lack of appreciation of the deadliness of cold. The human race would survive a rise of 2 to 3 degrees in planetary temperature. A fall of the same magnitude would cause the death of vast numbers of people as a large part of Northern Hemisphere agriculture failed. A full blown Ice Age would obliterate our civilisation. 90% of the last million years has been Ice Age, and it is possible we are reaching the end of our Interglacial. In fairness to Mr Raven, we both believe we are on an historical knife edge. I hope his view is more correct, but I have a strong view that the next three years will differentiate the science. I would respond to his post asking him why he thought that the previous high temperatures in the Holocene that were all hotter than the current period, were called 'Optimums' we are now even with the recent 'warming' at the low temperature end of the Holocene. Life has thrived on Earth at hotter temperatures and with higher CO2 and the Earth has entered ice-ages with far higher CO2 levels. In other words the 'experiment' has already been run and the results show that CO2 does not show any driving effect on temperatures, and in any case higher temperatures appear to be good for the biosphere and humans.
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