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Post by neilhamp on Jun 5, 2014 18:19:42 GMT
Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)showing a significant rise this month Looks very like an El Nino on its way The question is how big? www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/The updated (April-May) MEI has gone up 0.8 sigma in just one month, now at +0.93. This increase is the 2nd biggest on record for this time of year. In fact, its current ranking has gone up to 24 ranks to reach the 7th highest value for this time of year, vaulting straight into high moderate El Niño rankings from solid ENSO-neutral territory last month. The long anticipated breakthrough to El Niño conditions in 2014 is clearly under way, leading to the next question of how big it will get. Of the 10 nearest-ranked April-May values, five had clearly come up to this level over the previous three months. Among those five, four continued at El Niño levels through the rest of the year, while one (1993) dropped back to borderline neutral conditions by the end of the year. One (2002) ended up as a weak-to-moderate event, while the other three (1957, 1987, and 1997) are classified as strong El Niño events in the MEI sense. In other words, the simple-minded odds for El Niño remain at or above 80% through the remainder of 2014, and are consistent with previous discussions on this website. The odds for a strong El Niño are perhaps slightly higher than before, somewhere around 60%.
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Jun 5, 2014 21:41:19 GMT
POAMA has dropped the El nino all together, staying neutral.
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 5, 2014 23:01:34 GMT
Convential science has it down to pools of warm water building up every 3 to 7 years and sloshing back and forth across the Pacific over that time. The changes in the atmospheric pressure over the pools of warm (and cool waters where there is upwelling) drive the changes in the trade winds. ENSO events have occurred much more frequently than Astromet claims. In Astromet's post, he claims to have predicted the La Nina in 2009. What he leaves out is that there was an El Nino in late 2006 to early 2007, a La Nina in 2007 to 2008, another La Nina in 2008 - 2009 (perhaps this is the one he predicted), an El Nino in late 2009 to 2010 followed by a La Nina in 2010 - 2011 and another La Nina in late 2011 to early 2012. If you calculate the gravitational force of Jupiter on Earth, you'd see it's very weak, certainly not enough to have the effect that Astromet is claiming. The gravitational force falls off with the square of the distance between the two objects. Jupiter is so far away from the Earth that it has less effect than the moon. And the tidal effect of Jupiter on the Sun is less than that of Venus. With all due respect conventional science does not have it down! In fact, conventional science admits to that fact! They even have a name for that: "the spring predictability barrier". ENSO predictions by conventional science has no record of success until summer at which point their accuracy is fairly good for only a few months. By next spring their accuracy is back to zero. Further you cannot simply calculate the gravitational pull of Jupiter and Venus and claim that Jupiter can't have more effect relative to Venus. Tides are more complicated than figuring a static forcing. Tides involves more than lifting water. Water is not elastic so water has to accelerate and flow to a high point where the gravitational pull is the greatest to stand taller. That introduces acceleration a factor that could completely eliminate the distance factor and cause mass to stand alone. Since Jupiter has an orbit period about 18 times longer than Venus the current effects could be 18 to 300 times more potent than Venus from the standpoint of solar tides alone. And then you have to calculate the orbital effects as well. Earth's orbit would be round without other planets. I like Jupiter as the major solar cycle effect with an 11+year orbit and Saturn with a 29.5 year orbit and other outer planets for the multi-decadal ocean oscillation effect, and effect that might well be greatly modified by ice feedback into a larger effect on climate. Thanks Icefisher, as you are one of the few in this discussion (in fact, on the entire board) who is able to look outside of the Earth's confines to space and see that the Earth is part of a solar system which the others discount based on their limited minds and ignorance. Those who commented here on ENSO do not have a clue as to how it forms and what the causes are simply because they treat the Earth as stand-alone planet (seeing it as essentially flat) when the truth is that the Earth is round and is a planet that lives in space as part of the solar system. This is a fundamental difference between those who can see and those who are blind and ignorant. I forecasted the last ENSO, a El Nino followed by La Nina, and the last time I looked none of the major climate centers, nor other forecasters accomplished that feat and they will not forecast the next ENSO either because, like some of those who commented here on this thread, they treat the effects of weather and climate as 'causes,' when the causes are in space, and that is where our planet lives. As an astronomic forecaster, if anyone actually wants to know the reality and check the facts of the matter when it comes to the Earth's climate, there are direct analogues and correlations that are shown in daily temperature records, between cooling trends in specific regions of the Earth and the geocentric alignments of the Sun and the planet Saturn. The principal cause of the Earth's climate and weather was the Sun. Then, second in importance is the solar-lunar cycle and then the solar-planetary cycles. The planet Jupiter is also the only other planet that contains the remaining mass of the entire solar system with our Sun holding 98.9 of that mass, which is the reason for Earth's climate changes. Now, the planets Jupiter and Saturn especially have shown, by a number of tests that show lower temperatures on days when Sun-Saturn alignments occur, especially when near the equinoxes. The astrometeorology of this positioning indicates that tidal forces on the Earth's atmosphere is a major part of a mechanism that that explains the climatic and weather effects. Those who are ignorant of how the planets of our solar system also affect the Sun need to do much reading and learning rather than assuming and commenting because as far as I can see none of them are actually forecasting the weather (much less the climate.) Those who are ignorant must know that it is not 'distance' that determines the mechanism, but rather angular relationship and geomagnetic effect on the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) which surrounds the Earth and impacts the Earth's entire atmosphere. Also the angular separations of the various planetary combinations in the order of their frequency of occurrence, which starts with the Sun and Moon and ends with Jupiter and Saturn. For instance, Jupiter and Saturn raise the tides of the Sun’s atmosphere and, when in certain angular alignments, can pull the Sun in excess of one solar diameter away from the center of mass of the solar system. Jupiter and Saturn have a similar gravitational effect on the Earth’s atmosphere and there are tidal effects by angular positions (mathematics for those who are ignorant) that have been and are easily observed for those with the intellect to actually take note. For instance, any tidal effects from Saturn should be apparent in datasets when Saturn is in opposition or conjunction with the Sun (a straight line) and when it is nearest to the Earth in its orbit (an opposition.) Also, when it is at perigee, or when it is at 90 degrees to the poles (that is at low declinations near the equinoxes) or when an angular alignment includes the Moon, or other planets in addition to the Sun and Saturn. Now, those who want to actually learn how the Earth's climate and weather are forced by Solar, Lunar and Planetary motions and their angular relationships will need to raise their IQs substantially and put away their opinion and ignorance, for one cannot forecast based on ignorance and opinion to the laws of physics that govern solar, lunar and planetary transits relative to the Earth, which I remind all - is a part of the solar system and a planet that lives in space. That is where the climate and weather is forced and comes from. Know that three (3) major orbital cycles - Precession, Obliquity and Eccentricity - modulate the amount of insolation, that's the incoming solar radiation that the Earth receives over extended periods of the time from the Sun - play major roles in determining the climate regime and respective weather in various regions that our Earth receives from the causes - which I remind all: are in space.
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Post by icefisher on Jun 6, 2014 3:18:35 GMT
Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)showing a significant rise this month Looks very like an El Nino on its way The question is how big? www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/The updated (April-May) MEI has gone up 0.8 sigma in just one month, now at +0.93. This increase is the 2nd biggest on record for this time of year. In fact, its current ranking has gone up to 24 ranks to reach the 7th highest value for this time of year, vaulting straight into high moderate El Niño rankings from solid ENSO-neutral territory last month. The long anticipated breakthrough to El Niño conditions in 2014 is clearly under way, leading to the next question of how big it will get. Of the 10 nearest-ranked April-May values, five had clearly come up to this level over the previous three months. Among those five, four continued at El Niño levels through the rest of the year, while one (1993) dropped back to borderline neutral conditions by the end of the year. One (2002) ended up as a weak-to-moderate event, while the other three (1957, 1987, and 1997) are classified as strong El Niño events in the MEI sense. In other words, the simple-minded odds for El Niño remain at or above 80% through the remainder of 2014, and are consistent with previous discussions on this website. The odds for a strong El Niño are perhaps slightly higher than before, somewhere around 60%. NOAA has this at the top of that page: "The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NOAA." He seems to be overstating the situation. The models are still predicting less than an average El Nino. The average El Nino peaks at about 1.5deg anomaly, the models consensus has this one still at 1.2deg anomaly. Claiming a 60% chance of a strong El Nino seems very aggressive. NOAA itself with its CFS v.2 model is relatively aggressive but its about 1.4deg anomaly peak so they continue to predict a below average El Nino.
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Post by icefisher on Jun 6, 2014 3:28:17 GMT
Thanks Icefisher, as you are one of the few in this discussion (in fact, on the entire board) who is able to look outside of the Earth's confines to space and see that the Earth is part of a solar system which the others discount based on their limited minds and ignorance. No need to thank me. I grew up idolizing Benjamin Franklin, another astrometeorologist among many other things. I have little doubt you are correct. Seems to me the physical mechanism/response here on earth has to be the water cycle and its feedbacks and that it has been wrongly discounted via an ignorant focus on TSI variation. But corporately speaking its to be expected. You can attract an awful lot of money if the topic is about "gaining power" and very little if the "power" is beyond our ability to control.
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Post by icefisher on Jun 6, 2014 3:37:35 GMT
POAMA has dropped the El nino all together, staying neutral. I just noticed that POAMA uses a different standard for El Nino (+.8) than NOAA (+.5) That fits more to my viewpoint. I have discussed with Astromet my concerns of his actually being able to reliably say that there will be no ENSO, based on the fact primarily that weak El Ninos have no noticeable global climate effects. So I doubt that Astromet has sufficient data and resources to flat say the index will not meet the official standard. Now I think he probably does have resources to potentially say that there will be no "ENSO global climate impact" but that is something entirely different. The global climate effects of quite a few "official" El Ninos are virtually nil. Only the strongest show clear global climate effects.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 6, 2014 23:36:39 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 7, 2014 21:59:45 GMT
Astromet's interpretation of what causes ENSO events is certainly entertaining. What is the effect of Jupiter's mass on earth's oceans? How does it compare to the moon, which causes the tides? You could run the calculations and see where he is coming from. Convential science has ENSO down to the wind patterns caused by the Hadley cells, tradewinds, etc... I wonder which effect is stronger? Again Ken Feldman, Conventional science does not forecast climate, much less weather outside of 10 days. I do it regularly and have forecasted climate conditions years in advance - including the last ENSO. Also, I REPEAT: The next ENSO will be a major La Nina, with the worst winter season being that of 2021-2022. That winter will exceed the brutal winter of 2014 in North America. La Nina will rule under the new climate regime of global cooling, which will have officially begun in mid-December 2017 and last approximately 36 years according to my calculations. That has been my forecast and nothing has changed. In order for you (and anyone else) to learn how to forecast advanced climate, you will have to, in the words of Yoda, 'Unlearn what you have learned." There is no other way. Until you start to use the SAS method: SYSTEM ANALYZE SYNTHESIZE And do so in an integrated and interdisciplinary way, all you will continue to do is to play with the pieces of the climate puzzle endlessly believing effects to be causes, and will be no closer to actually forecasting the climate in the real world than when you began. Also, if you are to learn how solar, lunar, and planetary angular positions impact the Earth's climate, you are going to have get off the 'distance' thesis as that has little to do with the actual causes the celestial bodies have on the Earth's climate and resultant spectrum of weather worldwide.
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Post by flearider on Jun 7, 2014 22:22:56 GMT
astro is this you ?http://globalastrologyblog.blogspot.co.uk/
I really hope not .. as man is not driven by the stars ..
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 7, 2014 22:28:15 GMT
Astro: What do you see the rest of 2014 looking like if you predict 2015 and 2016 to be hot and dry? Will the rest of this year also be hot and dry? I have the solar year 2014 going from cool and wet from the spring, then into a hot and dry summer, and autumn, with not much of a winter of 2015 to speak of Case8930. The winter season coming will be shorter than last winter and certainly nowhere as bad as it was in the northern hemisphere last winter. Spring 2015 will arrive earlier-than-normal and it will be warmer-than-normal as well, going into a hot and dry 2015. that features a 'double summer' next year with very warm temperatures and dry conditions lasting well into autumn 2015, then into 2016. Winter 2016 is late, and also not much of a winter to speak of as well. The Winter of 2017 really takes place starting November 2016, December 2016 and into January 2017. These are the last years of solar-forced global warming, so enjoy them, because as global warming goes out with a bang, so will global cooling come in with a bang in December 2017 and then that will be that. We will be in a new climate regime with the Sun's hibernation cycle that begins a 36-year era of global cooling for the Earth. A La Nina follows with the worst of it during the winter of 2021-2022, setting new records for cold temperature, snowfall and ice. Anyone who bought into the lie of 'man-made global warming' is soon going to have to eat major crow, and for a long time too.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 7, 2014 22:47:25 GMT
astro is this you ?http://globalastrologyblog.blogspot.co.uk/ I really hope not .. as man is not driven by the stars .. Yes it is...
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 7, 2014 23:10:19 GMT
astro is this you ?http://globalastrologyblog.blogspot.co.uk/ I really hope not .. as man is not driven by the stars .. Yes, that is my blog and you can find my climate forecasts there as well. As for what you 'care' for: I don't care if you 'really hope not.' Let me ask you this: Who gives a shit what you hope? Who cares? I don't.
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 7, 2014 23:22:31 GMT
Thanks Icefisher, as you are one of the few in this discussion (in fact, on the entire board) who is able to look outside of the Earth's confines to space and see that the Earth is part of a solar system which the others discount based on their limited minds and ignorance. No need to thank me. I grew up idolizing Benjamin Franklin, another astrometeorologist among many other things. I have little doubt you are correct. Seems to me the physical mechanism/response here on earth has to be the water cycle and its feedbacks and that it has been wrongly discounted via an ignorant focus on TSI variation. But corporately speaking its to be expected. You can attract an awful lot of money if the topic is about "gaining power" and very little if the "power" is beyond our ability to control. Yes Icefisher, the Earth is a water planet, and as such, the Sun governs the oceans as well, which, along with the atmosphere, responds to the motions and angular configurations of the Sun, Moon and planets. Those who focus on TSI variation clearly are not in possession of all their marbles. Those who continue to focus on a single path of what is literally impossible - man-made global warming - filter out anything that does not fit their very limited view of the world. They are virtually blind and ignorant to learning that which they do not know. They are unaware of physical laws that govern the Earth's climate and are not even in first grade when it comes to understanding the basic principles that drives our planet's climate and weather. These are the boneheads who treat the Earth as if it is not a planet, that the Earth is flat, and who discount the Sun and the laws of physics; while pining on and on that 'pink elephants can fly'(man-made global warming.) Clearly a question of mental illness. "Give not thy pearls to swine," it was once said.
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Post by duwayne on Jun 8, 2014 15:01:04 GMT
Astro: What do you see the rest of 2014 looking like if you predict 2015 and 2016 to be hot and dry? Will the rest of this year also be hot and dry? I have the solar year 2014 going from cool and wet from the spring, then into a hot and dry summer, and autumn, with not much of a winter of 2015 to speak of Case8930. The winter season coming will be shorter than last winter and certainly nowhere as bad as it was in the northern hemisphere last winter. Spring 2015 will arrive earlier-than-normal and it will be warmer-than-normal as well, going into a hot and dry 2015. that features a 'double summer' next year with very warm temperatures and dry conditions lasting well into autumn 2015, then into 2016. Winter 2016 is late, and also not much of a winter to speak of as well. The Winter of 2017 really takes place starting November 2016, December 2016 and into January 2017. These are the last years of solar-forced global warming, so enjoy them, because as global warming goes out with a bang, so will global cooling come in with a bang in December 2017 and then that will be that. We will be in a new climate regime with the Sun's hibernation cycle that begins a 36-year era of global cooling for the Earth. A La Nina follows with the worst of it during the winter of 2021-2022, setting new records for cold temperature, snowfall and ice. Anyone who bought into the lie of 'man-made global warming' is soon going to have to eat major crow, and for a long time too. At any given time there are portions of the world that are in drought and portions that are much wetter than normal. Currently, California is parched and Washington is wet. Are you able to be more specific in your forecasts with respect to what areas are going to be wet and dry?
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 8, 2014 16:08:00 GMT
I have the solar year 2014 going from cool and wet from the spring, then into a hot and dry summer, and autumn, with not much of a winter of 2015 to speak of Case8930. The winter season coming will be shorter than last winter and certainly nowhere as bad as it was in the northern hemisphere last winter. Spring 2015 will arrive earlier-than-normal and it will be warmer-than-normal as well, going into a hot and dry 2015. that features a 'double summer' next year with very warm temperatures and dry conditions lasting well into autumn 2015, then into 2016. Winter 2016 is late, and also not much of a winter to speak of as well. The Winter of 2017 really takes place starting November 2016, December 2016 and into January 2017. These are the last years of solar-forced global warming, so enjoy them, because as global warming goes out with a bang, so will global cooling come in with a bang in December 2017 and then that will be that. We will be in a new climate regime with the Sun's hibernation cycle that begins a 36-year era of global cooling for the Earth. A La Nina follows with the worst of it during the winter of 2021-2022, setting new records for cold temperature, snowfall and ice. Anyone who bought into the lie of 'man-made global warming' is soon going to have to eat major crow, and for a long time too. At any given time there are portions of the world that are in drought and portions that are much wetter than normal. Currently, California is parched and Washington is wet. Are you able to be more specific in your forecasts with respect to what areas are going to be wet and dry? Yes Duwayne, I can be specific, but I don't do that advanced work for free. Also, I was the one who forecasted the multi-year drought for 2012 that spread to California.
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