Huh? Have you been reading the stuff Astromet posted? There is no conflict between your first paragraph and your second paragraph as Astromet has clearly stated that ENSO is associated with air circulation and water circulation patterns.
The question is what causes those air circulation and water circulation patterns. Astromet has offered some kind of explanation involving Jupter, which he monitors to predict ENSO, apparently successfully. I am not sure what conventional science believes the cause of ENSO to be. Though whatever it is it apparently does not work well since some scientists back in 2007 did claim we had entered a permanent El Nino state and that El Nino was going to be the new normal. We now know those scientists were ill informed. It is also true that the consensus modeling of ENSO by conventional scientists have leaned strongly and incorrectly towards an El Nino state of the past several years. (though that may not be true of all individual models)
It will be interesting to see if that continues and if finally conventional science is going to win a round.
Yes, I did read what Astromet wrote. Here is a quote from it:
Convential science has it down to pools of warm water building up every 3 to 7 years and sloshing back and forth across the Pacific over that time. The changes in the atmospheric pressure over the pools of warm (and cool waters where there is upwelling) drive the changes in the trade winds. ENSO events have occurred much more frequently than Astromet claims. In Astromet's post, he claims to have predicted the La Nina in 2009. What he leaves out is that there was an El Nino in late 2006 to early 2007, a La Nina in 2007 to 2008, another La Nina in 2008 - 2009 (perhaps this is the one he predicted), an El Nino in late 2009 to 2010 followed by a La Nina in 2010 - 2011 and another La Nina in late 2011 to early 2012.
If you calculate the gravitational force of Jupiter on Earth, you'd see it's very weak, certainly not enough to have the effect that Astromet is claiming. The gravitational force falls off with the square of the distance between the two objects. Jupiter is so far away from the Earth that it has less effect than the moon. And the tidal effect of Jupiter on the Sun is less than that of Venus.
Ken,
Let's help you to understand why Jupiter is important to our weather and climate here on Earth:
In astronomic forecasting, that's Astrometeorology, the transits of the planet Jupiter are well known as one of the major causes of atmospheric, telluric and solar perturbations that occur once and in a modified form, and twice, in every one of Jupiter's orbital revolutions.
Astronomic forecasting establishes two points: that at the Equinoxes, where the Earth's equator has its greatest obliquity to that of the Sun; and that at, or near the Solstices, where it has its least. This is because the plane of solar rotation then passes through the Earth.
Now, physical electric laws establish that under such conditions electric excitement should be at its maximum at the equinoxes, and at its minimum at the solstices, and astrological observations and analogues that relate to the climate and weather over the centuries has confirmed that these facts correspond with the obvious deductions of common sense and logical reason when it comes to the meteorology of astrophysical causes to geophysical effects here on Earth.
Understand that the winds, rains, snowfalls, storms, cyclones, hurricanes, auroras, earthquakes, in fact, all telluric and atmospheric phenomena are ELECTRIC, and that under what may be considered the normal condition of the Earth and its atmosphere, the electricity necessary to those weather events are constantly generated with varying rates of energy. This is under what may be considered an abnormal condition that is imposed by Jupiter's Cycles.
Know another fact:
Jupiter's influence upon our solar system is 'electric.'
The causes of climate and weather by modulation of the Sun's winds and cosmic rays are angular and strongly electromagnetic. That is the mechanism. You keep pining on about distance and gravitational effect, but you fail to note mathematical angular positions and electromagnetic effect of the solar system itself.
For instance, if Jupiter's orbital position at the time influences its own electric condition, then the orbital position of the Earth and any other planet in our solar system must have a like effect upon them under similar circumstances and conditions.
Whatever may be the case with other planets, it is undeniable that the electric condition of the Earth is affected by its relative position to the Sun.
So, if the annual telluric phenomena are put into two classes (that's equinoctial and solsticial) then the equinoctial will be to the solsticial as 3 is to 1.
For example, take tropical hurricanes: it is a fact that 9 out of 10 occur in the Northern Hemisphere during the months of August, September and October, at or near the Autumnal Equinox and the same proportion occura in the Southern Hemisphere in the months of February, March and April - at or near the Vernal Equinox.
The same is true of auroras and seismic activity, or earthquakes.
It is a indisputable physical fact that the Earth's atmosphere has significant electric perturbations at our equinoxes.
All the physical phenomena show that to be true.
The tides run higher, the barometer falls lower and electric tensions on the Earth and atmosphere are greater than at any other season of the year.
It is well established by direct observations in both Earth's hemispheres that electromagnetic perturbations conduct their maximas at the equinoxes, and their minimas at the solstices.
The character of this astrometeorlogical phenomena are not changed at these angles, but their energy is powerfully intensified.
Therefore, it follows that in whatever way Jupiter may affect the Sun and through the Sun, the solar system, then the result upon the Earth and its atmosphere is an enormous increase of 'electric intensity.'
That is one reason why Jupiter's transits are important to the Earth's climate and the other planets all play their roles as well on the Earth's climate.
It is an old fact, well known but not well understood by conventional science that fails to forecast; that in a system of insulated bodies we can neither increase, nor diminish the electric tension on any one of them without changing in the same degree the electric tension in all.
So, applying this physical law, this principle to the solar system, if from internal or extraneous influences an electric charge is evolved on a planet, or is either augmented or diminished, then that planet not only disturbs his neighboring planet, but all his co-planets and even the Sun itself.
These physical laws shows us the truth that the Universe is in fact more symmetrical in structure and is far more delicate in the adjustment of its parts, than the crude and rigid theories permit some to discover.
The difficulty for some to come to terms with the true nature of the solar system and the structure of the Universe isn't because that system is obscure, for it is easy to see for those with the eyes and intelligence to see it.
But rather, for some it is nearly impossible because they are afflicted with the sickness of the mechanical hypothesis.
That rigid belief presumes that the Universe is a rigid machine that operates under mechanical powers.
So, anyone under that false belief, right from the start, simply represses any real progress that would take them in the proper direction of Astrometeorology: which is based on the core knowledge of a pure dynamic view of the Universe and solar system with a structure and flawless operation of its parts that is in an integrated perpetual motion, under the influence of a synthesis system of cosmic forces that is always in motion.
It is called the Weather.
It is forecasted by means of variable mathematics, celestial mechanics and applied weather/climate astronomic forecasting. That is what I practice as an Astromet.
Now, Ken, you stated that,
"If you calculate the gravitational force of Jupiter on Earth, you'd see it's very weak, certainly not enough to have the effect that Astromet is claiming. The gravitational force falls off with the square of the distance between the two objects. Jupiter is so far away from the Earth that it has less effect than the moon. And the tidal effect of Jupiter on the Sun is less than that of Venus."
This is where your problem understanding is based. No one said anything about 'gravitational force of Jupiter on Earth,' as the mechanism that some of you are trying to find, is all around you in electromagnetic forces and angular points that cause perturbations to take place here on Earth. The Earth is part of the solar system - not outside of it.
Again, concerning Jupiter,
Since the orbit of each planet inclines at different angles to the plane of the Ecliptic (the Earth's orbit that is projected into
space) therefore no two planetary orbits can make the same angles with the Sun's equator, and so all the planets must experience an
electric perturbation when they pass the points of their own orbits where the plane of their own axial rotation makes the greatest angle to that of the Sun.
Remember, no two planets have the same inclination of their axis of rotation to the planes of their orbits. So while some of the elements of perturbation may affect them less than we see here on the Earth, others may affect them more, but evidently none are null and void.
There are two facts that are undeniable here:
That is that is our Earth and its atmosphere at the equinoxes always experience an intense electric disturbance that results in geophysical effects on the climate and resultant weather and seismic events across the many regions of our planet.
The second fact is that the telluric disturbance extends to, and affects the Sun; and even though Earth may not directly communicate its own climate influence to the other planets, the Earth itself does so indirectly, through the Sun.
Since this action of the Earth is so evident as to be incontestable, therefore by an extension of the same principle, it must follow that Jupiter, with a volume some 1,491+ times greater than that of the Earth, when undergoing an electric perturbation, must affect the entire solar system.
And so it does.
Lastly, in order to learn how to forecast advanced weather and climate, it is MOST IMPORTANT to observe the actual climate and weather at the same time that one knows the condition of the Sun, the seasonal orbit of the Earth and the positions of the planets relative to Earth (especially Jupiter and Saturn) and keenly note their angular placements in the future.
This is how I am able to accurately forecast many climate and weather events far in advance, because I can read the true calendar, a scientific ephemeris, and have observed the astronomic causes to the geophysical effects on Earth over the years. I have forecasted a wide variety of climatic and weather-related events by means of Astrometeorology and anyone who learns this applied system of climate and weather forecasting - Astrometeorology - will be able to do what I can do.