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Post by case8930 on May 29, 2014 13:43:05 GMT
Astro:
What do you see the rest of 2014 looking like if you predict 2015 and 2016 to be hot and dry? Will the rest of this year also be hot and dry?
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Post by douglavers on May 29, 2014 22:02:15 GMT
The SOI has been reasonably positive for most of May and the 30 day average is rising steadily.
In 82/3 [when there was a truly awful drought in SE Australia] values were in the -30 range for much of the time.
I think the strength of the index is some sort of proxy for the strength of the trade winds across the Pacific. Stronger trades presumably blow away that warm water near Peru. [?]
It is also raining hard in SE Australia.
None of this feels in the least bit like a real El Nino.
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Post by icefisher on May 30, 2014 1:55:38 GMT
As I explained Icefisher, ENSO is a *climate event* that is caused by fluxes in the external forcing from the Sun (and Jupiter) which occur every 11 years. I would also like to remind everyone that NOAA/NWS has never forecasted an ENSO in advance. Not once. Not a single time. They do not know how to do it and if they did, they surely have not done it to date. Being the only forecaster in the world to have actually forecasted an ENSO, a El Nino of 2009-2010, followed by a La Nina of 2010-2011, I think that I have a pretty good handle on what ENSO is and I know how to forecast these climate events in advance. I did so from 2006 the last time around and that was three years in advance. The point I was making Astromet is that for NOAA ENSO technically is NOT a climate event! The 2009-2010 El Nino was a climate event as it was a very strong El Nino. Its rise out of the La Ninas of 2008 and 2009 was dramatic but it had a minimal climate effect in terms of the global temperature record. You measure astronomical values to predict ENSO, NOAA uses internal values to predict and measure ENSO. I have no idea how you measure ENSO. Climate impact? SSTs? Regional weather/climate effects? We have been experiencing El Nino weather effects here on the US west coast for a few months. Namely a persistent southerly air and water push and spring storms. You have chosen to use the term ENSO as a climate event. But there is no defined connection between the "official" measure of an El Nino and its climate effects. 2009-10 was a strong El Nino with minimal longterm climate effects. One might attribute that to a trend towards a cool Pacific ocean phase, keeping in mind that from the peak of a warm phase it might take a couple of decades to actually get to a point of strong cooling influence, which fits to your predictions. The cessation of El Ninos in the final years might be a reality from a climate perspective, keeping in mind how the powerful El Nino of 2009/10 resulted in a relatively small climate impact. So here comes another powerful surge towards El Nino. I can see the distinct possibility of it meeting NOAA's measurement standards for being an El Nino and not having any significant climate impact at the same time. I can see the possibility of 5 over lapping months where an El Nino say never exceeds a 1 degree anomaly but stays above the necessary .5 degrees for the requisite period of time. Technically that would make you wrong while in my view your prediction was essentially correct. That is because I see the possibility of astronomical forcings to set the impacts but geography and feedbacks providing for a continuing oscillation of SSTs in the Nino 3.4 zone. In other words I feel maybe you are overreaching to call no ENSO when what you might be calling is no ENSO climate event. Its pretty clear that Sigurdur is looking for an ENSO climate event. The reason I pose this dilemma is because I think our data on ENSO is very poor for the cold Pacific ocean phase. The only major El Nino of the last cool ocean phase was the 1957 El Nino that ran off the top of the strongest solar cycle in the solar observation record. We don't have that situation today but instead a relatively weak solar cycle so we are very data poor on this topic. Seems when we were last in this situation was in the late 18th and 19th centuries and we don't have ENSO records to determine if an "official NOAA" type ENSO occurred then.
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Post by AstroMet on May 30, 2014 2:44:27 GMT
As I explained Icefisher, ENSO is a *climate event* that is caused by fluxes in the external forcing from the Sun (and Jupiter) which occur every 11 years. I would also like to remind everyone that NOAA/NWS has never forecasted an ENSO in advance. Not once. Not a single time. They do not know how to do it and if they did, they surely have not done it to date. Being the only forecaster in the world to have actually forecasted an ENSO, a El Nino of 2009-2010, followed by a La Nina of 2010-2011, I think that I have a pretty good handle on what ENSO is and I know how to forecast these climate events in advance. I did so from 2006 the last time around and that was three years in advance. The point I was making Astromet is that for NOAA ENSO technically is NOT a climate event! The 2009-2010 El Nino was a climate event as it was a very strong El Nino. Its rise out of the La Ninas of 2008 and 2009 was dramatic but it had a minimal climate effect in terms of the global temperature record. You measure astronomical values to predict ENSO, NOAA uses internal values to predict and measure ENSO. I have no idea how you measure ENSO. Climate impact? SSTs? Regional weather/climate effects? We have been experiencing El Nino weather effects here on the US west coast for a few months. Namely a persistent southerly air and water push and spring storms. You have chosen to use the term ENSO as a climate event. But there is no defined connection between the "official" measure of an El Nino and its climate effects. 2009-10 was a strong El Nino with minimal longterm climate effects. One might attribute that to a trend towards a cool Pacific ocean phase, keeping in mind that from the peak of a warm phase it might take a couple of decades to actually get to a point of strong cooling influence, which fits to your predictions. The cessation of El Ninos in the final years might be a reality from a climate perspective, keeping in mind how the powerful El Nino of 2009/10 resulted in a relatively small climate impact. So here comes another powerful surge towards El Nino. I can see the distinct possibility of it meeting NOAA's measurement standards for being an El Nino and not having any significant climate impact at the same time. I can see the possibility of 5 over lapping months where an El Nino say never exceeds a 1 degree anomaly but stays above the necessary .5 degrees for the requisite period of time. Technically that would make you wrong while in my view your prediction was essentially correct. That is because I see the possibility of astronomical forcings to set the impacts but geography and feedbacks providing for a continuing oscillation of SSTs in the Nino 3.4 zone. In other words I feel maybe you are overreaching to call no ENSO when what you might be calling is no ENSO climate event. Its pretty clear that Sigurdur is looking for an ENSO climate event. The reason I pose this dilemma is because I think our data on ENSO is very poor for the cold Pacific ocean phase. The only major El Nino of the last cool ocean phase was the 1957 El Nino that ran off the top of the strongest solar cycle in the solar observation record. We don't have that situation today but instead a relatively weak solar cycle so we are very data poor on this topic. Seems when we were last in this situation was in the late 18th and 19th centuries and we don't have ENSO records to determine if an "official NOAA" type ENSO occurred then. Yes, I understand Icefisher, that for NOAA ENSO technically is NOT a climate event - and that is the very reason why NOAA cannot forecast an ENSO in advance, though they try to do so for every single solar year. That is why they fail. That is the problem right there, in that NOAA does not understand what ENSO is. ENSO is NOT climate neutral. In technical terms, EBNSO is a proven thermal/kinetic energy exchange. That is that it is a circulatory response to conserve angular momentum that is relative to planetary surface in rotation, as processed through the fluid atmosphere. It is directly related to solar action, every 11 years in fact (not every year.)It is a decadal climate event. For instance, if NOAA takes out ENSO, then they also have to subtract the poleward migration of the Hadley cells and expansion of the Ferrel cells that have been observed since 1976. Now, if that is done, then they lose the three-to-four percent decline observed in tropical cloud cover and so lose all the warming since the 1970s. That amounts to about 3.5W/m^2 in loss since 1982. Again, it is the solar/planetary configurations that forces ENSO to take place every 11 years, the cycles of the Sun and Jupiter, which together hold all of the total mass of our solar system. ENSO is externally forced by means of the polar annular modes/AAM, but again, ENSO is climate change in action. What NOAA and other conventional scientists fail to get is that ENSO's thermodynamic response to perturbation is not linear, but rather, it is a climate system that responds to fluctuations in the external forcing from the Sun. And, the Sun is about to enter a hibernation state as it goes into solar cycle #25, this is global cooling and the next external forcing of ENSO will be, in my forecast, a very major La Nina, that will take place at the end of this decade and into early 2020, 2021, 2022. NOAA will miss the next ENSO (La Nina) too, but I already forecasted it here, several times, in advance. This La Nina will mark tjhe first of at least three major La Ninas climate events, with minor El Nino events that will not be anything like the El Ninos experienced during the era of solar-forced global warming. All climate change are astronomically forced, by the condition of the Sun and modulated by the planets, particularly Jupiter and Saturn's orbital cycles relative to the Earth. The Earth's precessional cycle, its eccentricity and obliquity are major reasons as well. As for ENSO, the next major event will be noted as beginning in mid-2019, and take place in 2020, 2021, 2022. It will be a major climate event in the new climate regime of global cooling for the Earth.
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Post by Ratty on May 30, 2014 5:06:53 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jun 2, 2014 1:57:04 GMT
Australia's past two years the hottest on record, Climate Council says Australia has experienced its hottest two-year period ever recorded as the country feels the impact of climate change, a report released today finds.
Australia in the second half of 2014 will probably have an El Nino event, which often brings drought, extreme heat and bushfire risk to rural areas, according to the Climate Council, relaunched as a nonprofit group after Prime Minister Tony Abbott scrapped the government's Climate Commission last year.
"El Nino exacerbates the longer-term warming trend," Will Steffen, a researcher at the Australian National University in Canberra who helped compile the report, said. "People have been saying, hasn't the warming trend stopped? In no way has it stopped. If anything it has intensified."
Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to limit an increase in extreme weather, including heat waves, drought and bush fires, according to a study from the group earlier this year. The government accepts the science of climate change and is committed to meeting its promised 5 percent reduction in emissions by 2020, Environment Minister Greg Hunt said in April.
Australia's climate change plans are in the spotlight because Abbott is hosting meetings of the Group of 20 nations this year. The US has encouraged Australia's prime minister to include climate change on the G-20 agenda.
"The real policy question is what plan does the government and the opposition have for decarbonizing the Australian economy around mid-century," Steffen said. "The 2020 target is pretty immaterial. The long-term target is what's very important to hit, and as far as I can see we don't have clarity from either side of politics about what they're going to do."
Record May
The 24 months through April set an Australian record for the hottest average temperature over a two-year period, the Climate Council said. Sydney had 19 straight days with temperatures of at least 22 degrees Celsius (71.6 degrees Fahrenheit) between May 10 and May 28, 10 days longer than the previous record, according to the council.
Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide also broke records for the number of consecutive days with temperatures of 20 degrees Celsius or above in May, according to the council.
The Abbott-led government has vowed to replace Australia's carbon levy with an alternative program that would provide funds to companies and projects that reduce emissions. The government plans to get rid of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the $10 billion Clean Energy Finance Corp., set up by Abbott's predecessor to spur investment in the industry.
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Post by douglavers on Jun 2, 2014 6:32:36 GMT
Ratty
I have no idea of the reliability of the Climate Council figures. All that really matters is how the global average temperature is moving, or, probably more accurately, the heat content of the top 700 metres of the oceans. I doubt there is much precision in measuring the latter.
BTW, later on this week I am going to sample some of that heat in Cairns!
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Jun 2, 2014 6:59:07 GMT
Still waiting for a reply from Will Steffen about a propaganda piece last year.
Im sure it won't be forthcoming.
Globally what happens here in OZ is totally irrelevant.
And I'm tipping no proof that anything happening in Sydney is traceable in any way to CO2.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 2, 2014 9:08:21 GMT
Still waiting for a reply from Will Steffen about a propaganda piece last year. Im sure it won't be forthcoming. Globally what happens here in OZ is totally irrelevant. And I'm tipping no proof that anything happening in Sydney is traceable in any way to CO2. I heard Will Steffen plying his trade on radio 4BC this morning: We'll all be doomed !! The point of my posts is that it is difficult (at the moment) to be a climate sceptic in Australia. Enjoy Cairns: Our most recent visit was spoiled by *&%*#!%*#* rain and wind. The crocs in the Daintree went underground, er underwater, to avoid the weather. Even the Barron George walk was dangerous. I had to resort asking a female companion to walk across first to see if it was safe:
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Jun 2, 2014 20:21:13 GMT
2 months of positive SOI a sure sign of a Super Nino developing.
LOL. I just don't get how people are either so dumb, or brainwashed.
Its so clear to see whats going to happen.
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Post by kenfeldman on Jun 2, 2014 23:31:39 GMT
Astromet's interpretation of what causes ENSO events is certainly entertaining. What is the effect of Jupiter's mass on earth's oceans? How does it compare to the moon, which causes the tides? You could run the calculations and see where he is coming from.
Convential science has ENSO down to the wind patterns caused by the Hadley cells, tradewinds, etc... I wonder which effect is stronger?
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Post by icefisher on Jun 2, 2014 23:58:42 GMT
Astromet's interpretation of what causes ENSO events is certainly entertaining. What is the effect of Jupiter's mass on earth's oceans? How does it compare to the moon, which causes the tides? You could run the calculations and see where he is coming from. Convential science has ENSO down to the wind patterns caused by the Hadley cells, tradewinds, etc... I wonder which effect is stronger? Huh? Have you been reading the stuff Astromet posted? There is no conflict between your first paragraph and your second paragraph as Astromet has clearly stated that ENSO is associated with air circulation and water circulation patterns. The question is what causes those air circulation and water circulation patterns. Astromet has offered some kind of explanation involving Jupter, which he monitors to predict ENSO, apparently successfully. I am not sure what conventional science believes the cause of ENSO to be. Though whatever it is it apparently does not work well since some scientists back in 2007 did claim we had entered a permanent El Nino state and that El Nino was going to be the new normal. We now know those scientists were ill informed. It is also true that the consensus modeling of ENSO by conventional scientists have leaned strongly and incorrectly towards an El Nino state of the past several years. (though that may not be true of all individual models) It will be interesting to see if that continues and if finally conventional science is going to win a round.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 3, 2014 1:47:10 GMT
Icefisher: Correct. We know the mechanics of the effects of the Trade Winds, but we don't know why they shift. Astromet claims Jupiter has an effect. Sounds as plausible as anything else put forth.
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Post by kenfeldman on Jun 3, 2014 15:32:32 GMT
Astromet's interpretation of what causes ENSO events is certainly entertaining. What is the effect of Jupiter's mass on earth's oceans? How does it compare to the moon, which causes the tides? You could run the calculations and see where he is coming from. Convential science has ENSO down to the wind patterns caused by the Hadley cells, tradewinds, etc... I wonder which effect is stronger? Huh? Have you been reading the stuff Astromet posted? There is no conflict between your first paragraph and your second paragraph as Astromet has clearly stated that ENSO is associated with air circulation and water circulation patterns. The question is what causes those air circulation and water circulation patterns. Astromet has offered some kind of explanation involving Jupter, which he monitors to predict ENSO, apparently successfully. I am not sure what conventional science believes the cause of ENSO to be. Though whatever it is it apparently does not work well since some scientists back in 2007 did claim we had entered a permanent El Nino state and that El Nino was going to be the new normal. We now know those scientists were ill informed. It is also true that the consensus modeling of ENSO by conventional scientists have leaned strongly and incorrectly towards an El Nino state of the past several years. (though that may not be true of all individual models) It will be interesting to see if that continues and if finally conventional science is going to win a round. Yes, I did read what Astromet wrote. Here is a quote from it: Convential science has it down to pools of warm water building up every 3 to 7 years and sloshing back and forth across the Pacific over that time. The changes in the atmospheric pressure over the pools of warm (and cool waters where there is upwelling) drive the changes in the trade winds. ENSO events have occurred much more frequently than Astromet claims. In Astromet's post, he claims to have predicted the La Nina in 2009. What he leaves out is that there was an El Nino in late 2006 to early 2007, a La Nina in 2007 to 2008, another La Nina in 2008 - 2009 (perhaps this is the one he predicted), an El Nino in late 2009 to 2010 followed by a La Nina in 2010 - 2011 and another La Nina in late 2011 to early 2012. If you calculate the gravitational force of Jupiter on Earth, you'd see it's very weak, certainly not enough to have the effect that Astromet is claiming. The gravitational force falls off with the square of the distance between the two objects. Jupiter is so far away from the Earth that it has less effect than the moon. And the tidal effect of Jupiter on the Sun is less than that of Venus.
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Post by icefisher on Jun 3, 2014 20:57:12 GMT
Convential science has it down to pools of warm water building up every 3 to 7 years and sloshing back and forth across the Pacific over that time. The changes in the atmospheric pressure over the pools of warm (and cool waters where there is upwelling) drive the changes in the trade winds. ENSO events have occurred much more frequently than Astromet claims. In Astromet's post, he claims to have predicted the La Nina in 2009. What he leaves out is that there was an El Nino in late 2006 to early 2007, a La Nina in 2007 to 2008, another La Nina in 2008 - 2009 (perhaps this is the one he predicted), an El Nino in late 2009 to 2010 followed by a La Nina in 2010 - 2011 and another La Nina in late 2011 to early 2012. If you calculate the gravitational force of Jupiter on Earth, you'd see it's very weak, certainly not enough to have the effect that Astromet is claiming. The gravitational force falls off with the square of the distance between the two objects. Jupiter is so far away from the Earth that it has less effect than the moon. And the tidal effect of Jupiter on the Sun is less than that of Venus. With all due respect conventional science does not have it down! In fact, conventional science admits to that fact! They even have a name for that: "the spring predictability barrier". ENSO predictions by conventional science has no record of success until summer at which point their accuracy is fairly good for only a few months. By next spring their accuracy is back to zero. Further you cannot simply calculate the gravitational pull of Jupiter and Venus and claim that Jupiter can't have more effect relative to Venus. Tides are more complicated than figuring a static forcing. Tides involves more than lifting water. Water is not elastic so water has to accelerate and flow to a high point where the gravitational pull is the greatest to stand taller. That introduces acceleration a factor that could completely eliminate the distance factor and cause mass to stand alone. Since Jupiter has an orbit period about 18 times longer than Venus the current effects could be 18 to 300 times more potent than Venus from the standpoint of solar tides alone. And then you have to calculate the orbital effects as well. Earth's orbit would be round without other planets. I like Jupiter as the major solar cycle effect with an 11+year orbit and Saturn with a 29.5 year orbit and other outer planets for the multi-decadal ocean oscillation effect, and effect that might well be greatly modified by ice feedback into a larger effect on climate.
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