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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2015 18:03:13 GMT
Walnut, I think you need to go re check your data? You'll find the losses across the Arctic far outweight the recovery in Antarctic ice ongoing since the early 80's. If you look at sea ice volume differences you'll find an even more stark contrast ( seeing as the Arctic shed 70% of its total sea ice volume since the 70's). Graywolf: You seem to be stuck on old data. The VOLUME and AREA of Antarctic sea ice wayyyyyy more than offset the puny loss in the Arctic. Sheeeesh feller......be credible at least.
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Post by nonentropic on Mar 12, 2015 18:04:07 GMT
That's not the issue. The CAGW people propose this arctic ice extent decline as proof of theory but fail to show a realistic explanation for the Antarctic's growth. Other than to propose some other unmeasured metric as the decline in the Antarctic.
If CAGW is a real issue rather than a bit of AGW which is largely accepted to be happening, then the stupid discussions need to stop and the unsupported temperature adjustment need to be rejected. No open source method and data papers should be purged from the world of science. Problem is little would remain standing. Outside of a solid open monitoring program little else needs to be done until this is completed.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2015 18:05:23 GMT
Walnut, I think you need to go re check your data? You'll find the losses across the Arctic far outweight the recovery in Antarctic ice ongoing since the early 80's. If you look at sea ice volume differences you'll find an even more stark contrast ( seeing as the Arctic shed 70% of its total sea ice volume since the 70's). Also, at least you an accurate trend as well! The 70's you say? The last APEX of Arctic Ice? Gosh...it reached 80F last summer. Today it is 40F. The world is ending, we are cooing so fast! Ya see what I am trying to portray? Use ACTUAL credible data. Thank you. As an aside, I have told you to get Capt Larson's log book from his 1944 voyage using the Northern Northwest Passage. He went DAYS and saw NO ICE!!! It really is amazing reading!!!!
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Post by icefisher on Mar 12, 2015 18:33:58 GMT
Looking at different forecasts than me then? I see HP over the continent bring in cold easterlies from the cold interior? Anyhow ,still sub 14 million and still losing ice ( at about the rate we ought to be gaining at this time of year?) . So what of the 'multiyear' ice? Is it the same type that prof Barbers ship was making 13 knots through ( the ships top speed was 13.5 knots) back in 2010? Since we lost the last of the paleocryistic back in 2010 the basin has seen varying amounts of fy, 2nd year, 3rd year ,4th and 5th year ice but over the melt season we have all travelled with the various expeditions over the basin and seen the quality of the 'remnant ice, come seasons end. None of it appears untouched by melt and a lot looks badly degraded ( swiss cheese ice). This ice then becomes entombed in FY new grown ice come re-freeze. So how much of the older ice types is 'rotten ice'? in 2012 we saw 5m of ice melt out off the north shore of Greenland over the month of August. How is such a feat possible? Was the heat so great and water so warm or was the majority of that 'older ice' rotten ice ( and so not defying physics by its melting?). Maybe this summer will put this to the test? With Fram now back on line I believe we can expect a more typical summer so expect export as well as in-situ melt? With the pacific side having no Bering buffer melt there will begin in earnest once the sun is high enough. We should have a strong melt this year. Last year we had the biggest El Nino push of warm water up the westcoast ever in memory of anybody I know familiar with the topic. This water feeds into the arctic via prevailing currents through the Bering Strait. Layer ontop of that a particularly strong variation in the PDO, associated with the El Nino, an El Nino, though "officially" weak due to traditional El Nino signals in a small area of the Pacific not responding strongly. Put another layer on top with the solar maximum we have just concluded. . . all signals suggest record low ice this summer. The fact that some disagree on the cause of global climate variation (change) doesn't mean that one has to endorse immediate cooling. The ice core record shows temperature variations lasting approximately a few hundred years and natural climate optimums can vary in distance apart considerably with peaks of a variety of shapes and longevity.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 13, 2015 11:31:35 GMT
With the average melt total for the noughties being 10.5 million km2 things do look bad for summers end currently?
With weather giving around a 1 million push either way you can drop that 10.5 by another million should the weather prove conducive to melt?
That does not leave a lot of ice in the basin and , as we know, when the end comes it will come really fast as the dregs of ice secumb to the pressures of the warmed ocean around it....
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 13:28:33 GMT
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dh7fb
New Member
Posts: 25
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Post by dh7fb on Mar 13, 2015 14:41:45 GMT
With the average melt total for the noughties being 10.5 million km2 things do look bad for summers end currently? With weather giving around a 1 million push either way you can drop that 10.5 by another million should the weather prove conducive to melt? That does not leave a lot of ice in the basin and , as we know, when the end comes it will come really fast as the dregs of ice secumb to the pressures of the warmed ocean around it.... You can't be serious! Your calculation is the pure BS and I think you know it! The melting in the summer dosen't depend on the maximum extent. This is determined by the lateral seas ( i.e. Okhotskii) and there is no significant correlation between max and min in the september!
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 14, 2015 3:40:39 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 14, 2015 16:28:54 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Mar 15, 2015 5:22:11 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Mar 15, 2015 13:08:17 GMT
Another day and another drop on JAXA? that's 250km2 adrift of the Feb 15th high and , to my knowledge, no other year put on 250km2 after this date?
Should that prove so we might have a problem? If the warm waters the triple R are pushing up the west coast are supplemented by an early warmed surface of Bering ( no melt to waste energy on and no surface meltwater to 'cool things off?) then the Pacific side of the basin could face an early battering?
If low ice over the Pacific sector is making it easier for the triple R to station itself there then do we not just go around again?
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 16, 2015 11:35:02 GMT
I think people get so tied up in numbers that they forget what that size means. 14,000 square kilometers is nearly twice the size of Australia! Think of the amount of energy released as latent heat of freezing when 2 meters plus thick ice formed over that huge area.
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Post by flearider on Mar 16, 2015 15:41:29 GMT
so why are we going to get a low Arctic Ice this yr ..simple fact the massive cool area off the eu .. the gulf stream is doing 2 things 1)it's mostly pushing out into the atlantic trying to warm that cold 2)it's also being forced to the right side of Greenland causing an early melt .. yeah I said it is this good or bad ... well an early melt will allow this yrs heat to escape faster and if the arctic melts as much as 2012 then 2016 and 2017 will be dam cold and if astro's prediction comes true .. with the sun cooling then wow are we in for it .. either way were not going to like the next few yrs ..
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Post by Ratty on Mar 17, 2015 10:16:58 GMT
Code, where's the rest of your post? Is HAARP involved?
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 17, 2015 14:42:44 GMT
Ratty, Sorry. I don't buy 1) or 2) and I'm skeptic of the sun cooling. It wasn't harp it was my head, darn cold. Code: You really don't have a cold, HARP just told you to think you have a cold.......
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