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Post by sigurdur on Mar 17, 2015 14:44:50 GMT
so why are we going to get a low Arctic Ice this yr ..simple fact the massive cool area off the eu .. the gulf stream is doing 2 things 1)it's mostly pushing out into the atlantic trying to warm that cold 2)it's also being forced to the right side of Greenland causing an early melt .. yeah I said it is this good or bad ... well an early melt will allow this yrs heat to escape faster and if the arctic melts as much as 2012 then 2016 and 2017 will be dam cold and if astro's prediction comes true .. with the sun cooling then wow are we in for it .. either way were not going to like the next few yrs .. One of the reasons that Europe got cold during the LIA was the change in direction of the Gulf Stream. The LIA was a world wide event. The cause of that event? Not known. But there is evidence of a meandering Gulf Stream.
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Post by flearider on Mar 17, 2015 17:11:14 GMT
so why are we going to get a low Arctic Ice this yr ..simple fact the massive cool area off the eu .. the gulf stream is doing 2 things 1)it's mostly pushing out into the atlantic trying to warm that cold 2)it's also being forced to the right side of Greenland causing an early melt .. yeah I said it is this good or bad ... well an early melt will allow this yrs heat to escape faster and if the arctic melts as much as 2012 then 2016 and 2017 will be dam cold and if astro's prediction comes true .. with the sun cooling then wow are we in for it .. either way were not going to like the next few yrs .. One of the reasons that Europe got cold during the LIA was the change in direction of the Gulf Stream. The LIA was a world wide event. The cause of that event? Not known. But there is evidence of a meandering Gulf Stream. yep and i'll bet at the time the antartic was larger than it had been ..
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Post by graywolf on Mar 20, 2015 12:07:03 GMT
So NSIDC called it for Feb 25th? Very low start to melt season.
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 21, 2015 6:36:43 GMT
Can't melt quick enough for these guys: Ferry Stuck In Ice Off Nova Scotia. "While sea ice in this area is not unusual at this time of year, the extent and thickness of the ice is noteworthy". "Last winter the ice moved into the area in late March and early April". said Darrell Mercer of Marine Atlantic. “This winter is much more challenging than past winters.” “This year, it (the ice) moved in early to mid-February, and it doesn’t show any signs of going away any time soon,” he said. “I’ve heard the Canadian Coast Guard say it’s the worst of the 30-year averages they’ve been keeping.” www.professionalmariner.com/Web-Bulletin-2015/Icebreaker-helps-free-stranded-ferry-off-Nova-Scotia-with-VIDEO/
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Post by graywolf on Mar 22, 2015 11:30:15 GMT
I'm thinking if we do not regain ice levels from Feb 25th by monday then re-freeze is over? expansion, due to drift, over Bering is merely pushing thin ice out into warm waters so this 'expansion' is really a death knell for the ice there. The rest of the basin is now seeing solar increase day on day so proper melt will now be underway across much of the periphery to the basin.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 22, 2015 15:05:04 GMT
I'm thinking if we do not regain ice levels from Feb 25th by monday then re-freeze is over? expansion, due to drift, over Bering is merely pushing thin ice out into warm waters so this 'expansion' is really a death knell for the ice there. The rest of the basin is now seeing solar increase day on day so proper melt will now be underway across much of the periphery to the basin. The melt will continue Graywolf. The Black Carbon effect, which accounts for over 65% of the advanced melt rate IS anthropogenic. The Arctic waters are actually cooling. Without the Black Soot deposits, one would be seeing a bottoming apex in regards to ice area. We may still be seeing the bottom being formed, but a deeper bottom than normal.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 22, 2015 16:38:41 GMT
Steven Goddard points to fraud at Cryosphere Today " It is hard to win a debate with people who simply change the score any time they are losing." It is not possible to trust anything from NASA/NOAA and their associated subgroups, politics is now trumping ethics.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 22, 2015 21:54:33 GMT
Steven Goddard points to fraud at Cryosphere Today " It is hard to win a debate with people who simply change the score any time they are losing." It is not possible to trust anything from NASA/NOAA and their associated subgroups, politics is now trumping ethics. it's getting harder to keep that CO2 high high. They only show annuals ... and based on the Midwest, I'd say they've already cooled the winters for many years back. Hey, after all, winters were cold back then, even when the summers were hot. Nobody will notice. Now even the pause appears to be rising. What will they do next as the temps continue to decline??? Kerosene lamps under the temperature gauges? How can they even look in the mirror? No personal honor whatsoever! Even Nixon would have blushed.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 24, 2015 9:38:53 GMT
Still not caught up with JAXA's 15th of Feb max? With the weather now set to alter away from that which brought us the recent paltry gains can we now call max? NASA/NOAA/NSIDC have already called it.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 24, 2015 10:07:41 GMT
Still not caught up with JAXA's 15th of Feb max? With the weather now set to alter away from that which brought us the recent paltry gains can we now call max? NASA/NOAA/NSIDC have already called it. You are late to the game Graywolf. I called it about 2 weeks ago.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 26, 2015 15:51:21 GMT
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) the global sea ice area on March 25 was 20.257 million square kilometers. This was 1% above the average for the same date in the 1980’s. It was marginally above the average for the 1990’s. It was 3% above the 2000’s and 3% above the average for the date for the last 10 years. This is not just a 1-day phenomenon. It’s indicative of what’s happening with sea ice. It’s undergoing a slow secular increase according to the NSIDC. Other sources show the trend as flat.
And yet the alarmists focus on a decline in sea ice in one area presumably because there’s actually nothing elsewhere to support their alarm. Global temperatures have been flat for 15 years. There have been no new all time high temperatures for any of the 50 states this century. None of the continents have had a new high for the century.
Global droughts are slightly down if anything. Hurricanes are down significantly. Tornadoes are down significantly. Typhoons aren’t increasing in numbers or severity. Floods aren’t increasing. Sea levels have been rising steadily since long before atmospheric CO2 began increasing significantly after WWII and there’s no sign of acceleration.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 26, 2015 18:55:04 GMT
And yet, NOAA gives us the warmest winter in history. Except us and the AMO.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 28, 2015 14:00:15 GMT
Losses from JAXA today. Well thats it over and we have a very early max this year. I recall wondering if the 'late spurt' in 2012's max ( near 1 million?) saved us from a worse min than we would have expected? This early max might show us if a flying start matters over the whole melt season.
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Post by icefisher on Mar 28, 2015 14:24:40 GMT
Losses from JAXA today. Well thats it over and we have a very early max this year. I recall wondering if the 'late spurt' in 2012's max ( near 1 million?) saved us from a worse min than we would have expected? This early max might show us if a flying start matters over the whole melt season. One cannot reliably predict much from averages. Unfortunately our ice measuring technology still very much relies on extent, extent which can be dramatically varied by winds as opposed to melt. Now area is a measurement still not favored due to unreliability of clearly extinguishing between ice and water. It can easily detect snow covered ice but it does a very poor job on recently formed ice or recently submerged ice. How much of the ice area measurements are affected by wind patterns, precipitation patterns, ENSO patterns that produce annual variations in the ice cover to a rather large degree is known to be quite large (and exemplified by projects which use human observers to study satellite photography to try to identify sensor oversights). This year should be low ice from the standpoint of external forcings and the ENSO pattern now reaching into its second year. What is really significant and the only thing that is significant is the complete lack of any significant change measured over time spans exceeding forcing well known to science to account for short term variability. Namely the known short term drivers are pointing at warming right now so any warming or loss of ice is insignificant in terms of climate change. Now if we are at solar minimum (about 4 to 6 years from now) and its still warming and ice is still being lost that might be significant.(though there is still a lot unknown at least then we will need to try to figure out why). A daunting project no doubt when you consider the fact that recent low ice records in the arctic are being matched by high ice marks in the antarctic.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 5, 2015 13:47:03 GMT
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