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Post by acidohm on Jul 30, 2015 10:39:22 GMT
One day....ice has been growing and receding for eons.....
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Post by Ratty on Jul 30, 2015 13:24:53 GMT
Acidhom said; "Not unexpected Andrew....There is a well documented 'see saw' effect which effectively sees a balance between poles....One is usually high when the other is low in extent.." Yet according to C.T. Today; arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/Antarctic ice is .4 million up whilst Arctic is 1.5 million down? Up and down on what? Satellite era? Anecdotal historic data?
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Post by acidohm on Jul 30, 2015 19:05:24 GMT
Acidhom said; "Not unexpected Andrew....There is a well documented 'see saw' effect which effectively sees a balance between poles....One is usually high when the other is low in extent.." Yet according to C.T. Today; arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/Antarctic ice is .4 million up whilst Arctic is 1.5 million down? In any case...Even the establishment acknowledges the Ice extent can rebound rapidly... www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33594654
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Post by graywolf on Aug 4, 2015 9:05:17 GMT
July Piomas is out and puts us lower in volume than 2014 and catching up on 13'.
Also today's drop on JAXA ( 117 km) puts us joint 3rd lowest on the plot.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 4, 2015 11:42:59 GMT
At the same time, Australia is experiencing very cold weather - even for Winter- almost throughout the continent.
Must be that cyclical thinggy I keep hearing about ....
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Post by graywolf on Aug 4, 2015 12:46:09 GMT
I'm personally concerned to see the cold outbreaks pushing so far north Ratty. As with our hemisphere it seems that cold is not 'growing' out of the pole but swapping mild/moist air masses for the cold over the continent (WAA). As we saw with the huge Antarctica sea ice drop when the first snows came to confuse Wallaby's a few weeks back?
I can promise you that you do not want to be part of the 'stuck weather' phenomena! The eastern Seaboard of the U.S. looks no different than the last two years so in 5 months we'll be hearing about the Arctic conditions gripping the east whilst Alaska ships in snow for it's sled races!!!
With the ending of the so called 'hiatus' I think we might even expect Antarctic Sea ice levels to begin to settle back to 1980's levels before its eventual collapse ( Ross Sea first) later in the 20's?
EDIT: As far as the Arctic Basin is concerned I'm keeping an eye on the 'cane just about to miss Hawaii? The recurve ,as it dies, runs it up through Bering ( around the triple R). With the ice in such disarray in Beaufort/ESS any low entering through the straights will allow major wave formation and damage to the remaining floes. The current low has seen 70cm of bottom melt of OBuoy9 since the onset of the storm ( 'eckman pumping' of the warmer bottom waters???) so anything larger will do far more damage ( GAC12 wiped out the freshwater pool over the Gyre in less than 5 days!!!).
Anyhow , with the sun now much weaker we enter into the bottom melt end of the season and find out what type of momentum we built up through June/July. Whilst June was nothing special July has been breaking both heat and sunshine levels over the basin so any open waters have had a good sunbathe!!
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 4, 2015 13:30:47 GMT
Graywolf: Alas, there is still ice in the Arctic. It was predicted to be ice free during the summer of 2015. Doesn't look like that is going to happen.
Another forecast that is wrong, to the detriment of mankind. We NEED an ice free Arctic in the summer to facilitate shipping of goods.
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Post by graywolf on Aug 4, 2015 14:23:03 GMT
My 'earliest possible sub million year' is 2017. This , should it occur, would be a flash in the pan and will probably take upwards of a decade to repeat. This still sits in the oft quoted 2016 plus or minus 3 years that was banded around after 2012?
I do not think you can have fully understood the 'job' an ice covered Arctic does for us all Siggy? All our growing areas are in regions that have stayed relatively benign over the past 4,000yrs but this is now altering. Not long to wait though?
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Post by acidohm on Aug 4, 2015 16:30:36 GMT
Personally I think in 5 years we'll wish we had conditions where the lack of arctic ice was an issue.....We are 'polar' opposites in our concerns Graywolf!
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 4, 2015 19:39:02 GMT
My 'earliest possible sub million year' is 2017. This , should it occur, would be a flash in the pan and will probably take upwards of a decade to repeat. This still sits in the oft quoted 2016 plus or minus 3 years that was banded around after 2012? I do not think you can have fully understood the 'job' an ice covered Arctic does for us all Siggy? All our growing areas are in regions that have stayed relatively benign over the past 4,000yrs but this is now altering. Not long to wait though? Graywolf: The last time the Arctic was ice free during the summer the world was blooming. It has not repeated that level of bloom since. Are you telling me that if the Arctic becomes ice free in the summer that history won't repeat itself?
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Aug 4, 2015 19:47:42 GMT
July Piomas is out and puts us lower in volume than 2014 and catching up on 13'. Also today's drop on JAXA ( 117 km) puts us joint 3rd lowest on the plot. Graywolf, After a very warm July with a dipole pattern set up across the arctic weather conditions have completely reversed with temperatures below average and a reverse dipole. Volume and extent are looking quite robust. My initial guess on extent for minimum is 4.8-5.1 million kilometers squared (NSIDC). We should finish 5th-6th lowest in extent. MASIE arctic sea ice extent is starting to show a big slow down. The pattern going forward does not look good if you are "hoping" for a big melt.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 4, 2015 22:23:44 GMT
I think you will find, Mr. Superstorm, that your provision of non-apocalyptic data will fail to impress Mr. Graywolf; he revels only in potential doom.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 5, 2015 1:45:51 GMT
July Piomas is out and puts us lower in volume than 2014 and catching up on 13'. Also today's drop on JAXA ( 117 km) puts us joint 3rd lowest on the plot. Graywolf, After a very warm July with a dipole pattern set up across the arctic weather conditions have completely reversed with temperatures below average and a reverse dipole. Volume and extent are looking quite robust. My initial guess on extent for minimum is 4.8-5.1 million kilometers squared (NSIDC). We should finish 5th-6th lowest in extent. MASIE arctic sea ice extent is starting to show a big slow down. The pattern going forward does not look good if you are "hoping" for a big melt. Oh come on man......will I have to wait another year for an ice free Arctic? I looked at the paleo data for near where I live. (North Dakota has a trove of that type of data)....and man....during the Holocene Optimum.....things were GREAT here. GREAT..... I want the climate to change so we get GREAT back....and I am getting old. I don't want to die before it happens so please hurry it up!!!!!
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Post by graywolf on Aug 5, 2015 9:12:34 GMT
Two words ; Bottom Melt. When did this 3rd of the season depend solely on 'air temp' The record levels of sunshine/temps over July may well have proved sufficient to offset the cool May/June esp. with the pack so fragmented over that month. As the OBuoy Buoys show us bottom melt has really taken off across Beaufort ( 70cm basal loss over 1 week!!!) as the storm pushes ice toward the ( relatively)super heated coastal waters. The only ice showing promise is C.A.B. but this is also now showing thinning and disintegration?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 5, 2015 13:21:38 GMT
One can only hope so Graywolf.
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