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Post by throttleup on Jun 12, 2016 3:20:42 GMT
The human race NEEDS the Arctic ice fee during the summer so that ships can use the shorter route and emit less CO2. It is a win win for humanity. Lower freight costs and lower CO2 emissions. The faster the Arctic becomes ICE free during the summer the better! Besides, the last time this happened the world was a MUCH more hospitable place for humans! Sig, you don't appear to have got the memo. The world being good for humans is a the disaster that the environmentalists are trying to prevent. Ice in the Arctic should increase until Iceland is at the edge of the permanently frozen ice. Temperatures in northern Europe should never go above 55F / 13C, winters should start in October and no sign of spring until April and be continual hard frosts. That would be nirvana for the warmists. Quite right, nautonnier. One wonders if they would add up the mounting body count with the same glee they use today when watching ice melt, breakup, etc.
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Post by graywolf on Jun 13, 2016 8:47:55 GMT
Well the stall continues! In 2012 the ice lost over a million over the same period so it's now looking like we might slip from lowest extent over the coming days? It would be handy to know how the LP's are treating the ice? they do not appear to have allowed temps to fall off very much and wind speeds have not been too significant but then the ice was already well broken before the event.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 13, 2016 9:58:12 GMT
Well the stall continues! In 2012 the ice lost over a million over the same period so it's now looking like we might slip from lowest extent over the coming days? It would be handy to know how the LP's are treating the ice? they do not appear to have allowed temps to fall off very much and wind speeds have not been too significant but then the ice was already well broken before the event. Can you be more specific, GW?
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Post by graywolf on Jun 13, 2016 14:18:19 GMT
The low in question is one of those forming along the eurasian coast. It messed with KARA, flirted with the C.A.B. and is headed for the NE tip of Greenland. Normally we would see the cloud allow temps under it to fall away but this hasn't happened to any great degree. Swells can also be bad for the pack ( 1m thick ice does not show much freeboard so waters sloshing over the floe leads to rapid melt?) but further fragmentation is the main concern with floes under 100m suffering peripheral melt as damaging as bottom melt.
When the clouds allow it will be interesting to find out just what has occurred?
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 13, 2016 16:44:20 GMT
Doesn't look like the Arctic will be ice free this summer. At this point, there are no plans by major shipping companies to use the passage to shorten the freight journey.
Maybe next year?
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Post by acidohm on Jun 13, 2016 17:27:08 GMT
Doesn't look like the Arctic will be ice free this summer. At this point, there are no plans by major shipping companies to use the passage to shorten the freight journey. Maybe next year? Maybe Sig! Or the next??!
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Post by Ratty on Jun 14, 2016 1:17:47 GMT
Doesn't look like the Arctic will be ice free this summer. At this point, there are no plans by major shipping companies to use the passage to shorten the freight journey. Maybe next year? I predict an ice free Arctic in 2007 and again in 2013. You can bet on that.
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Post by graywolf on Jun 14, 2016 11:41:01 GMT
I was reading that low fuel prices have meant folk just not taking the risk over the past couple of years? www.newsdeeply.com/arctic/articles/2016/06/06/is-northern-sea-route-shipping-in-a-deep-freeze As far as 'ice free'? I think we still need a 'perfect melt storm'synoptic to get close to that? I think the continued conditioning of the ice, year on year, does make this event ever more likely though? We have currently had a period of slow extent drops yet area kept falling. this hints at fragmentation ( under the clouds) and so the continued move toward ever smaller floes. When their size drops below 100m then interesting things begin to occur with melting rates as the side melt become ever more impacting. You have probably seen it many times over the melt season where the little floes just 'blink out' over a couple of days when in open waters? This is the direction we are headed with fragmented floes ( all seeming to show past 'fault lines' where they shattered and were 'glued back together' by FY ice?) mechanically degrading as floe bumps floe. Same weight of powdered ice versus ice cubes, which melts fastest?
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Post by icefisher on Jun 15, 2016 6:07:34 GMT
I was reading that low fuel prices have meant folk just not taking the risk over the past couple of years? www.newsdeeply.com/arctic/articles/2016/06/06/is-northern-sea-route-shipping-in-a-deep-freeze As far as 'ice free'? I think we still need a 'perfect melt storm'synoptic to get close to that? I think the continued conditioning of the ice, year on year, does make this event ever more likely though? We have currently had a period of slow extent drops yet area kept falling. this hints at fragmentation ( under the clouds) and so the continued move toward ever smaller floes. When their size drops below 100m then interesting things begin to occur with melting rates as the side melt become ever more impacting. You have probably seen it many times over the melt season where the little floes just 'blink out' over a couple of days when in open waters? This is the direction we are headed with fragmented floes ( all seeming to show past 'fault lines' where they shattered and were 'glued back together' by FY ice?) mechanically degrading as floe bumps floe. Same weight of powdered ice versus ice cubes, which melts fastest? Well the answer is the deep water route needed by shipping has only opened occasionally for very short periods since 1944.
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Post by graywolf on Jun 15, 2016 8:09:04 GMT
I think we'll see the NW Passage deep water route begin to open up routinely over the coming years. Back in 07' when we saw it open Mark Serreze thought we had a decade or more of clearing multiyear ice out from the channels but we have seen this process finish well ahead of his guestimation?
As it is the oldest ice in the channels is now imported from the thick band of ice to the north of Greenland /C.A.
As we move on we may find that this is how that resilient band of ice ( to the north of Greenland /C.A.) will fail as the C.A. takes it away into Baffin and melt....... that said we've seen very thick chunks of ice melt out in the channels so maybe it will not need to travel that far?
The melt extent slowdown continues with some measures now showing us tying with 2012 at this point? 2012 did have record large drops through the start of June though and they level off for the rest of the month. if this slowdown has been masking melt ongoing ( as concentration metrics hint at?) then we will ,eventually, see heavy losses as the ice in melt melts out or the drift pulls ice beyond the 15% cut off ( and we see drops)
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 15, 2016 9:44:46 GMT
That's unlikely to attract commercial operators even if it were open for several months. There will always be ice or the risk of ice that will demand long term planning of insurance and vessel type. This northern passage is grand standing rather than some new opportunity. The Arctic is currently at about zero C and this is a very exceptional year at about the longest day one extra degree will not make it into some open clear ocean for half a year. In ten years if you are correct and the world continues to boil the picture may be a little clearer but with the Panama extended and the Suez also, long established routes and vessel types are unlike to be substituted with a summer fleet for the north. Sea shipping is actually quite fast and cheap the end point efficiency improvements will add much more than a northern route every so often open. I must say refrigerated cargo could be interesting and containers of wine destroyed by freezing every so often also.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 15, 2016 10:17:54 GMT
{ Snip } I must say refrigerated cargo could be interesting and containers of wine destroyed by freezing every so often also. Easy fix Non: Reverse cycle refrigeration units. PS: Can wine ever be destroyed?
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Post by graywolf on Jun 15, 2016 11:11:15 GMT
{ Snip } PS: Can wine ever be destroyed? Was it the Austrian's that put anti-freeze in some back in the 80's? That'd do the trick!!!
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Post by Ratty on Jun 15, 2016 11:55:53 GMT
Was it the Austrian's that put anti-freeze in some back in the 80's? That'd do the trick!!! Several Austrian competitors who should have won gold medals at the 1984 Winter Olympics found it impossible to warm up for their events. I blame the mulled wine but what would I know.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 15, 2016 16:08:20 GMT
Several Austrian competitors who should have won gold medals at the 1984 Winter Olympics found it impossible to warm up for their events. I blame the mulled wine but what would I know. Reminds me of the arguments in the late 80's about a winery in Australia calling their wine 'Australian Beaujolais'. It was said at the time that at the bottom of the labels on the bottles was "Beware of cheap French imitations'
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