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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 2:21:39 GMT
Lets review this prediction:
"From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year..."
How did that forecast work out for you?
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 6, 2012 2:24:35 GMT
I don't drink mysticism which is what you are pushing not science. Define "science" as you certainly cannot claim to determine what is 'science' and what is not; since you reject mathematics and mysticism which are part and parcel of Science. History says otherwise. You ought to use your library card much more often than you do Glenn and get off the kool-aid. Stop wasting my time having to read your silly comments.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 6, 2012 2:26:10 GMT
Lets review this prediction: "From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year..." How did that forecast work out for you? I forecasted El Nino back in 2006 for 2009-2010 and for a La Nina anomaly to immediately follow in 2010-2011. You can find my public forecast on this site by the way. My forecast worked out very well. How did yours work out for you?
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 6, 2012 2:29:13 GMT
Theodore: Can you define ENSO. From my knowledge, the Pacific is always in a state of ENSO. There are roughly three states of ENSO: 1. La Nina 2. El Nino 3. La Nada. When you post about an ENSO event, what are you referring to? Hi Sigurdur, Well, the Pacific is always in a state of minor oscillation between warm temperatures and cold temperatures but you really cannot call it an ENSO in the true meaning of the major climate events of El Niño or La Niña. Those are the oscillating extremes of what constitutes ENSO. They occur every 10-11 years and correlate to the Sun-Jupiter oscillations astronomically. Depending on the condition of the Sun in a global warming or global cooling climate regime, we experience and see a dominance of more El Niño (warm oscillations) or La Niña (cold oscillations) over the ENSO spectrum. I use the term "ENSO" to mean the El Niño & La Niña Southern Oscillation. This defines the climate phenomena. You will notice that those who argue with me about ENSO mistakenly use the term only when talking about El Niño and so they nickel-and-dime me when what they ought to be doing is getting their own usage of ENSO correct. Major El Niño and La Nina events are not 'states' necessarily, but simply extreme phased-oscillations toward warmer or colder cycles of the Pacific that impact the atmosphere. One is coupled in a warm oceanic phase, that's El Niño, with its high-air surface pressure in the western Pacific. The cold oceanic phase is called La Niña, with its low air surface pressure in the western Pacific. ENSO is caused astronomically. That is how I was able to forecast the last two events years in advance. Over the last 30 years we've had more El Niños, but what is coming are decreasing El Niño events but increasing La Niñas events. Its going to get colder. We are in climate transitional decade of the 2010s now as the world wanes from solar forced global warming and leans to the coming new climate regime of global cooling - that translates to more La Niñas on the horizon in the years and decades ahead.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 2:29:42 GMT
Theodore, Lets review the facts.
You said and I quote ""From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year..."
Do I need to post the data on just how this strong El Nino you predicted for 2010-2011 turned out?
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 6, 2012 2:47:26 GMT
Theodore, Lets review the facts. You said and I quote ""From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year..." Do I need to post the data on just how this strong El Nino you predicted for 2010-2011 turned out? I know the data very well, as Mother Nature verifies all forecasts, including my El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) forecast for 2009-2011, which, by the way DID have an El Nino followed by La Nina, as I forecasted. So perhaps that will shut you up since you want to play silly stupid games with a serious forecaster. This isn't personal, it's just business Glenn. Just because you cannot do what I can do and question the fact that someone else can do what you cannot do does not mean that it cannot be done. Got that? It has been done and will continue to be done despite your 'faith' issues and all the rest of your silly quips, insults, and yada yada yada snippets; which by the way, are not facts. You reading me? So the next time you want to review the facts of the climate and my forecasts let the facts of Mother Nature's validation speak for herself... she's been there, done that, so there's no need for your 'review' as my forecasts speaks for itself. I am not perfect, and never have claimed such a thing, but I am also not stupid, nor am I a mere novice either. I am a professional and well-versed in advanced forecasting. I have proven my abilities as a forecaster time and again over the years. So, if you cannot respect that then just be on your way and quit wasting my time with your foolishness and rudeness. You've been schooled Glenn and it's Mr. White to you. Here, I'll post some of 2009-2011 ENSO data for YOU and there's plenty of it that has long since validated my ENSO forecast made back in 2006, republished again in 2008 and validated by Mother Nature herself in 2009, 2010 and 2011: See -> www.kpbs.org/news/2010/jan/20/its-official-el-nino-california/See -> www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/13See -> www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/13/us-climate-temperatures-nino-idUSTRE70C2ZF20110113See -> www.aroundhawaii.com/sports/surf/2010-11-20102011-el-nino-hangover.htmlSee -> www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/feature/ENSO-feature.shtmlEnjoy -> www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoOsXsNYGLY
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 4:39:30 GMT
astronut,
lets go back to your original quote: 'Ive forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year..."
The weak El Nino ended early 2010 and a strong La Nina ensued.
In short you were 180 degrees out. A total bust. Game, Set, Match. Is that all you have?
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 4:45:19 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 4:47:00 GMT
Get your astrolabe out and try harder Mr. Polymath!
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 6, 2012 4:58:57 GMT
astronut, lets go back to your original quote: 'Ive forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year..." The weak El Nino ended early 2010 and a strong La Nina ensued. In short you were 180 degrees out. A total bust. Game, Set, Match. Is that all you have? There's a lot about advanced long-range climate/weather forecasting science that you clearly need to learn. But it seems that you're only in it ankle deep with all that AGW noise in your skull. The only one who needs to 'read and weep' is you kiddo. You can't even read the ONI for the ENSO years 2009, 2010 and 2011 correctly-> www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtmlYou will easily see the transition from the warm oceanic El Nino of 2009-2010 to La Nina (as forecasted by me) in the ONI. And note that La Nina does not always follow an El Nino but that was also forecasted. You also failed to note the serious real world impacts of both El Nino and La Nina phases that led to record climate events globally. How soon some people forget, but then again, short attention spans are all the rage now with some people, isn't that right Glenn? What's more, you're on the wrong forecast thread to boot, my ENSO forecast is here on this forum. I posted that ENSO forecast on Solar Cycle 24 some years ago. This thread that you're posting on about ENSO is my Astromet Forecast For Spring, Summer & Autumn 2012, where I forecasted the Midwest Drought. Just how old are you Glenn? You ought to read and study more before you jive talk your BS-> rankexploits.com/musings/2011/how-strong-was-the-2010-el-nino/Since you obviously have decided to act out as a spoiled child, as well as not being in the least bit knowledgeable about climate in general and ENSO in particular, moreover lacking common courtesy while being all so 'hot and bothered' by Astromet who've you've called a 'nut' without any cause but continue to pine on pitilessly about - this tit for tat conversation with you is now terminated. I will avoid your posts and threads since I do not take you seriously. Go troll elsewhere. Here Glenn, I'll make you feel better about yourself though; since you're obviously been seeking attention: "Yep, a 'total bust. Game, set, match, just like in tennis. 6-love, 6-love. You're right. I think based on your in-depth professional and non-biased evaluation that Astromet, oh excuse me, 'Astronut,' should not continue to forecast since he is never accurate and perfect as all forecasters must be, according to your standards and opinion. Why even bother to mount the 10-speed bicycle if you're not willing to fall down every now and then?" Feel better Glenn? Can we go now?
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 5:17:26 GMT
astronut,
Here it is month by month:
2010
1.6
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.2
-0.3
-0.8
-1.2
-1.4
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
2011
-1.4
-1.3
-1.0
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.0
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 5:24:00 GMT
Is this your quote or not?
"Ive forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year..."
Then what do those numbers say about your very strong 2010-2011 El Nino that you predicted?
Here is a hint Mr. Polymath. A negative number = cold.
You have been dismissed.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 6, 2012 5:36:26 GMT
Is this your quote or not? "Ive forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year..." Then what do those numbers say about your very strong 2010-2011 El Nino that you predicted? Here is a hint Mr. Polymath. A negative number = cold. You have been dismissed. No, in reality, actually you have. This is what I forecasted on the last major ENSO event: "For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, via very strong teleconnections when the world can expect increased flooding from powerful storms with resulting mudslides from torrential rains to the coasts of Ecuador and Peru and to the coasts of southern California.
Droughts can spread through the countries of Australia, China, India, Indonesia, India, Philippines, and Africa. One region of the world - South Asia - will see an powerful series of climate-related disasters as a result from the Sun's activity and effects on the world's coverall climate. It is calculated that world's population at risk from ENSO-related disasters is somewhere between 187 to 250 million people globally.
Forecasters, climatologists, meteorologists, and those who are weather and climate spotters and watchers will have their hands very full dealing with ENSO-related weather patterns from now through to June 2012, according to my forecast.
This summer and autumn is a good time to get your weather equipment set and tuned up. It is also essential for those living in regions where El Nino is known to have particular weather effects to prepare your emergency plans and store supplies for the latter half of 2009 and all through the year 2010, 2011, and 2012. Further preventive plans will need to be made for additional damaging weather events related to the impacts of ENSO in the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016.
The shifts in storm tracks from El Nino (2010-2012) and precipitation patterns will greatly affect seasonal forecasts during these years to the extent where forecasters will have to use ENSO models to adjust their seasonal forecasts for annual rain, drought, and snowfall amounts in North America, and elsewhere.
Because ENSO conditions are not regulated to calendar years, and often extend beyond one year, through to three or four years in length at times, the best conventional models not based on astronomic calculations on the causes, but those related to building readings of the effects would be Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) readings; the Southern Oscillation Model (SOI) and the Multi-Variate ENSO Index (MEI) for large position values (El Nino) and to read for coming large negative values (La Nina.)
At this time in July 2009, scientists are already seeing the precursor signs of the onset phase of ENSO with seasonal warming off the coasts of Peru persisting.
By late August 2009, sea-surface temperatures will continue to rise, and we should see changes in the SOI models further confirming ENSO with negative values, along with recording of pressure increases at Darwin station in Australia matched by pressure decreases at the Tahiti climate station.
La Nina Anomaly in 2011?
Although I have forecasted the return of El Nino in 2009, into 2010, and 2011, I am also forecasting a La Nina event to follow in the Northern Hemispheric Winter of 2011 to take place in the months of February, March, and April of that year.
My analysis of astronomical motions correlating to a La Nina shows that the 2010 El Nino will be followed by the cooler La Nina phase."Like I said, you should read more and speak less Glenn, but go right ahead and continue to make a fool out of yourself. It's by your own doing, your own hand, not mine, so go right ahead and be my guest. However, as I've repeatedly said to you before about your man-made global warming beliefs and denials of how the Earth's climate functions and my forecasts, well Glenn, there you go again: You just don't have both your oars in the water. Lazy thinkers and rude insulters come a dime a dozen kiddo, you're still a stinker - not a 'thinker.' Until you get there you ought to learn a lot more than you obviously do not know about the Earth's climate now, or how to forecast it -> www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL048521.shtmlOh, by the way, I'm the master forecaster and you are the novice: Know what that means? It means that I am the one that gets to say, "dismissed" - but you don't. Why is that you ask? Well, because you haven't EARNED it Glenn. That's the difference between a professional forecaster and a wannabe. Remember, if you want to be a professional forecaster then mind Mother Nature (i.e., the laws of physics) and DO YOUR HOMEWORK FIRST. Have a nice day. You're (notice the proper use of *you're* versus *your*) dismissed now Glenn
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 5:47:53 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 5:58:27 GMT
astronut, I don't blame you for denying the quote. Being how it turned out to be a total bust. But it did not come from these boards. I am assuming you are the same Theodore White that posted it on accuweather.com. The one thing with all charlatans is they don't like admitting they are wrong. However, a new technology exists today that was not available to your mentor Nostradamus. It's called Google. Click on the link. Game, Set, Match forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=13603
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