Arctic sea ice minimum 2012 Jun 16, 2012 22:23:25 GMT
Post by icefisher on Jun 16, 2012 22:23:25 GMT
Thanks for pointing that out neilhamp. The obvious significance here is that the concensus ARCUS projections are consistent with an ongoing reduction of Arctic Sea Ice, as is being observed.
Further, the various Arcus projections on the low end are thus calculating a record sea ice extent minimum (but people always hope 'there won't be any math' and don't want to have to do that calculation, thanks for pointing it out).
Only one of the 19 projections has a record value (<4.2). It might actually be of interest if say they projected another round of acceleration of ice melt in response to CO2 emissions accelerating about 10 fold over the last 30 years.
But all the projections with the math to do that (the models with orange bars) all reside higher on average on the chart above the statistical trend following projections. (light blue bars)
Most appear to be favoring a continuation of the melt rate since about 1995. (which is steeper than the trend line for the full 33 years) But thats pretty unremarkable when one considers the high likelihood that ice responses are delayed maybe as much as 17 years (10 years for primary ocean absorption and maybe another 7 for a multi-year reduction or accretion of multi-year ice).
1995 is reflective of 17 years beyond the end of the last natural cool cycle. 17 years past the end of the recent warm cycle is out there around 2025 leaving our projections without any new remarkable response to ever increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.
Its like the scientists are saying I don't really believe this CO2 malarkey but damned if I am not going ride the money wave for as long as possible and rely on "its worse than we thought" should ice projections fall on the high side.
But thats natural most people are followers, not leaders. Leaders hang it out there and if wrong take a lot of abuse; but if right become heroes.
So following the trend is really what followers do so its really boring, unremarkable, and completely lacking in new information and takes no risks.