|
Post by Ratty on Aug 15, 2015 6:06:08 GMT
Yes Douglavers and all that in the hottest year ever and a tipping point to the end of all! How's the weather been down your way Non?
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Aug 15, 2015 6:11:50 GMT
nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.pngAbove graph shows that this year, Antarctic Ice is now at its longer-term average. I have no idea whether that is good, bad, or indifferent. What I do know, is that it means a great deal more Southern Ocean [at -2degC] is being cooled by brutally cold winds off the Antarctic plateau at between -20 degC and -30degC. [or colder] Not to mention direct radiation into space; open sea will lose heat much more quickly than an ice shelf in total darkness. What I am saying long-windedly, is that lower Antarctic Ice this year is likely a net cooling event for the planet. This is supported by the observation that New Zealand, Australia, and a large part of South America have had a remarkably cold winter. I don't know what happened in Southern Africa. I remember reading a while back that the disappearance of Arctic ice could be the trigger for the next Big Ice Age. Maybe this: www.commondreams.org/views04/0130-11.htm
|
|
|
Post by tobyglyn on Aug 15, 2015 6:33:25 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Aug 15, 2015 9:58:49 GMT
Possible. There were a few days of Winter heat wave conditions in the north .... don't think it could have cancelled out the majority cold though?
|
|
|
Post by tobyglyn on Aug 15, 2015 10:25:47 GMT
Now, now, it was obviously very warm regardless of the snow in Hobart and Canberra and how you might have personally felt
|
|
|
Post by douglavers on Aug 15, 2015 11:20:31 GMT
I tried to look through the BOM site to find some numbers. I thought the figures provided were remarkably unhelpful. The nearest I could get was this page: www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/aus/mwr-aus-201506.pdfFigs to the end of June only. I regret that I simply did not believe the numbers quoted. Speaking with some feeling, we have had a remarkably cold winter in the whole of SE Australia. A few days ago, snow even settled on the beach in Hobart. [first time for three decades]. Two days ago, it snowed in Canberra. The Blue Mountains near Sydney have been snowed on a number of times, and over July it even snowed on the tablelands of Southern Queensland.
|
|
|
Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 15, 2015 14:37:32 GMT
Come, come, Mr. Doug. You are discussing observations. Those are meaningless. The models say it is getting much, much warmer. That's what matters.
|
|
|
Post by dontgetoutmuch on Aug 15, 2015 15:50:14 GMT
SNIP I regret that I simply did not believe the numbers quoted. Speaking with some feeling, we have had a remarkably cold winter in the whole of SE Australia. A few days ago, snow even settled on the beach in Hobart. [first time for three decades]. Two days ago, it snowed in Canberra. The Blue Mountains near Sydney have been snowed on a number of times, and over July it even snowed on the tablelands of Southern Queensland. I know it is weird how much different the official temperature can differ from reality. In one instance that sticks in my mind, my car radio reported the current temperature at the Anchorage AK airport, while I was at the airport. Official temp: 12f. Car external temperature: -17f. Now my car thermometer is not the most accurate, but at no point that day, did the temperature ever get close to going above zero in Anchorage that day.
|
|
|
Post by graywolf on Aug 15, 2015 17:56:55 GMT
Appears a perfect world for you guys?
Trust nothing other than your own eyes....... I once saw the Home Secretary , on the BBC 6 O'clock news, tell the Nation that at " no point were the telephone lines to the Church of the Ascension cut....." when I'd stood, not 10ft away, that very morning and watched officers put up ladders, climb them, and cut the telephone lines to the Church of the Ascension........ not nice out there guys.....liars and crooks all! ( even the guys batting for you......)
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Aug 15, 2015 19:27:50 GMT
Most anomaly maps for the last month show Australia and NZ slightly below normal or normal.
anecdote is the domain of the CAGW and it should remain their game.
Reality is the models are make up country, the satellite data has credence.
|
|
|
Post by Andrew on Aug 16, 2015 16:49:16 GMT
There is a possibility the Cryosphere global sea ice chart will show a record low this year
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Aug 16, 2015 17:08:12 GMT
Yeah....things have really tumbled in that dept. this year, as I mentioned elsewhere, it's strange, in the region's south of the poles where there are large populations of people....everyone is complaining how it's cooler then average!
|
|
|
Post by Andrew on Aug 16, 2015 18:55:22 GMT
There will be no problems with the North West passage this year.
|
|
|
Post by graywolf on Aug 16, 2015 19:00:11 GMT
It's what we saw up here when the P.V. camped out over Boston for the winter? If it were the 'expansion' of cold then that would be OK but when you ship warm, moist air in to replace the cold then that is not good? I think folk also need remember that the recent 'growth' of Antarctic Sea ice is thinnest/weakest further away from the pole so any large storms just mix up the water ( no 'halocline' but that formed directly below the ice..... unlike the 100+ metres of it below Arctic sea ice?) and smash up /melt out the fringing pack?
If you look at the sea ice maps you'll also find that over the period of Antarctic 'extension' some areas show negative anoms meaning that the 'Growth Areas' are really extending into the southern ocean ( approaching the belt of circumpolars?) so any kinks that storms place on the circumpolar winds ( and so current) will introduce unfriendly conditions for the ice?
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Aug 16, 2015 19:06:20 GMT
A glass full of water with ice floating on top is unfriendly for ice.
The ice comes and goes. Imagine the reaction to the Lawrence ice sheet receding if AGW was a concern then.
A few 1,000 k of ice flux is nothing in the larger picture.
|
|