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Post by flearider on Aug 17, 2015 19:27:43 GMT
I have had a thought the jet stream will be pushing loads of warm air into the area giving a melt of sorts .. but this will be priming the southern pacific for the start of the melt season so there will be a lot more cool water breaching the equator driving the north pacific down .. there go's the nino ..
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Post by graywolf on Aug 18, 2015 8:49:36 GMT
arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.htmlWell the ice just does not seem to want to grow any more this year? The worry has to be the southern ocean storms crashing through the circumpolar barriers of both wind and current. After watching the unfolding fun of the latest jakobshavn calve, over a 5km ice front, I have to wonder what the 55km of Thwaites is going to behave like with unfriendly waters pushing up against it? If Nino stirs up the southern summer with plenty of storms then the summer calving season around the continent could turn interesting?
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Post by fredzl4dh on Aug 18, 2015 9:28:10 GMT
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Post by flearider on Aug 18, 2015 10:35:19 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Aug 18, 2015 14:18:10 GMT
Well the Arctic has acted as though last year was a nino Year ( Volume anom over recent years?) so I'm wondering if we will see similar for the Antarctic melt Season even though the lag won't show this years event yet? It would appear, to me, that the next melt season after this years will also show nino impact? as it is the warmth in the tropical oceans appears to want to stretch this nino out into early next summer? So what of next years re-freeze under full nino forcing?
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Post by acidohm on Aug 18, 2015 15:06:34 GMT
I disagree about El NiƱo GW...cold ssta is moving in patches from East, the ssta are cold to the west. ...how are any further downwelling kelvin waves meant to propagate??
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 18, 2015 15:18:52 GMT
A thing to remember about Kelvin Waves. They run on a schedule. That is how they were discovered and named.
This El Nino looks to be fading fast.
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Post by graywolf on Aug 19, 2015 16:18:25 GMT
The 'average nino pattern leads to a big H.P. off Ross feeding warm air into that region and restricting ice growth. If you know the recent history of Sea ice down there where the biggest 'gain' areas of sea ice are and so will already know that Ross is the biggest of these?
It will be many months before this years KW's get north or south of where they impacted the Americas. We saw last years record sized KW take until Dec to turn up in the PDO region? ( giving us a winter of record high PDO readings?) so anything heading down the coast of Chili must take at least that long?
Air Pressure anoms are a lot faster in the teleconnections from nino forcings than 'water'?
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Post by acidohm on Aug 19, 2015 16:44:52 GMT
I don't know GW....currently water is heading north up Pacific south America coast and turning West at equator, certainly in that area I see no kelvin wave heading to Antarctic. In last week it seems Pacific has reached equilibrium and is now heading to more normal conditions. ...
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Post by flearider on Aug 19, 2015 20:47:23 GMT
your right acid .. theres been an early melt of sorts and the normal one is about to start .. it's going to get interesting ..
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Post by Andrew on Aug 23, 2015 18:12:36 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Aug 23, 2015 19:45:22 GMT
It's crazy. ...record daily highs 6 months ago....quite a turn around.
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Post by flearider on Aug 23, 2015 20:06:28 GMT
It's crazy. ...record daily highs 6 months ago....quite a turn around. thing is do you believe it or not ?? .. that's a lot of ice to go missing ..
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Post by acidohm on Aug 23, 2015 20:22:26 GMT
It's crazy. ...record daily highs 6 months ago....quite a turn around. thing is do you believe it or not ?? .. that's a lot of ice to go missing .. Hear what your saying Mr Rider....i'm guessing it will all come out in the wash!
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Post by flearider on Aug 23, 2015 21:57:30 GMT
2 yes 2 million sq km's of ice .. that's the size of Saudi Arabia.. I mean come on ?
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