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Post by sigurdur on Feb 14, 2017 16:18:36 GMT
As to validation, look Paleo.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 14, 2017 18:49:56 GMT
Hi code!
With Antarctica losing its 'splendid isolation' status I expect to see the Southern hemisphere start to take a similar path to that we see across the north with warming weakening the PV's control over the polar region in much the same way we have seen the Arctic loose its control over the cold that forms under the arctic night?
Anyhows , now extent is record low we'd better keep an eye on 'Area'?
Area 1 1993-02-26 1.248163 2 1984-02-27 1.509585 3 1996-02-25 1.535481 4 2000-02-18 1.561033 5 2006-03-04 1.565059 6 1999-02-26 1.577058 7 2017-02-13 1.586773
So we dropped two places today and are now down to 7th lowest.
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Post by acidohm on Feb 14, 2017 18:52:59 GMT
The bit of Antarctica nearest last years nino has melted, are we suprised??
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 14, 2017 18:57:05 GMT
Nope. We know the Western Peninsula has been warming for centuries. If previous interglacials are indicative of future performance we know it will continue to warm. Just as the Arctic region will continue to warm. This really should surprise no one.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 15, 2017 21:40:46 GMT
Hi code! With Antarctica losing its 'splendid isolation' status I expect to see the Southern hemisphere start to take a similar path to that we see across the north with warming weakening the PV's control over the polar region in much the same way we have seen the Arctic loose its control over the cold that forms under the arctic night? Anyhows , now extent is record low we'd better keep an eye on 'Area'? Area 1 1993-02-26 1.248163 2 1984-02-27 1.509585 3 1996-02-25 1.535481 4 2000-02-18 1.561033 5 2006-03-04 1.565059 6 1999-02-26 1.577058 7 2017-02-13 1.586773 So we dropped two places today and are now down to 7th lowest. Ah.....but are suggesting higher latitudes will also see these "rogue" cold plunges? Is North America going cold? North America has been seeing 'cold plunges' along with the rest of the hemisphere? Did you miss Boston the other year whilst Alaska was busy importing snow for their sled races? Should the upcoming SSW turn into a final warming you might well see a final slump of cold Arctic air over the start of March? If we see the basin finally get cold over the next ten days then that could be a very cold plunge!!!
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Post by graywolf on Feb 17, 2017 12:47:31 GMT
Until the new forcings dominate we will see natural cycles still showing impact? Like this year should have had an Easterly QBO and that impacts climate by slowing the flow of the polar Jet leading to it becoming more loopy ( and so allow cold plunges to occur) yet that is exactly the weather patterns we have seen ( worse than ever?) so what should this past winter have been like if QBO e had also thrown its lot in with the already loopy jet???
El Nino still leads to a positive temp skew over the year it is at its max but that is not stopping general background temps soon overcoming that record high and setting new records?
We would have to see some major changes to drive a polar jet in the way it historically did over QBO w with a near straight jet flowing around our hemisphere. As such I feel pretty safe in saying that the U.S. will see more frequent polar plunges over winter but that the opposite will be true of the areas either side of that plunge with unseasonable warmth flooding in?
If we could forecast the areas where the jet stall out , bringing 'stuck weather' with it we'd make millions! To be able to give a couple of weeks heads up for extreme cold or extreme warm ?
I suppose if you are in the energy distribution industry accepting that we will see more frequent extremes means you can be better prepared to deal with them once they arrive?
As for this 'final warming' over the Arctic in a little over a week? Who knows where all that cold will be spilled out into? I'm hoping it ain't the UK!!!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 17, 2017 13:52:28 GMT
Until the new forcings dominate we will see natural cycles still showing impact? Like this year should have had an Easterly QBO and that impacts climate by slowing the flow of the polar Jet leading to it becoming more loopy ( and so allow cold plunges to occur) yet that is exactly the weather patterns we have seen ( worse than ever?) so what should this past winter have been like if QBO e had also thrown its lot in with the already loopy jet??? El Nino still leads to a positive temp skew over the year it is at its max but that is not stopping general background temps soon overcoming that record high and setting new records? We would have to see some major changes to drive a polar jet in the way it historically did over QBO w with a near straight jet flowing around our hemisphere. As such I feel pretty safe in saying that the U.S. will see more frequent polar plunges over winter but that the opposite will be true of the areas either side of that plunge with unseasonable warmth flooding in? If we could forecast the areas where the jet stall out , bringing 'stuck weather' with it we'd make millions! To be able to give a couple of weeks heads up for extreme cold or extreme warm ? I suppose if you are in the energy distribution industry accepting that we will see more frequent extremes means you can be better prepared to deal with them once they arrive? As for this 'final warming' over the Arctic in a little over a week? Who knows where all that cold will be spilled out into? I'm hoping it ain't the UK!!! Looking like the 1940's again are we Graywolf? en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Armistice_Day_Blizzard
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 17, 2017 15:40:01 GMT
Until the new forcings dominate we will see natural cycles still showing impact? Like this year should have had an Easterly QBO and that impacts climate by slowing the flow of the polar Jet leading to it becoming more loopy ( and so allow cold plunges to occur) yet that is exactly the weather patterns we have seen ( worse than ever?) so what should this past winter have been like if QBO e had also thrown its lot in with the already loopy jet??? El Nino still leads to a positive temp skew over the year it is at its max but that is not stopping general background temps soon overcoming that record high and setting new records? We would have to see some major changes to drive a polar jet in the way it historically did over QBO w with a near straight jet flowing around our hemisphere. As such I feel pretty safe in saying that the U.S. will see more frequent polar plunges over winter but that the opposite will be true of the areas either side of that plunge with unseasonable warmth flooding in? If we could forecast the areas where the jet stall out , bringing 'stuck weather' with it we'd make millions! To be able to give a couple of weeks heads up for extreme cold or extreme warm ? I suppose if you are in the energy distribution industry accepting that we will see more frequent extremes means you can be better prepared to deal with them once they arrive? As for this 'final warming' over the Arctic in a little over a week? Who knows where all that cold will be spilled out into? I'm hoping it ain't the UK!!! Graywolf: What you are presently worried about has happened in the past. I saw a snow chart this morning. The poster of said chart was from a global warming site that was worried that snow levels are dropping. The start point in the chart was 1973. OF course, since 1973 snow levels, on average, HAVE been dropping. But when you look at LONG term snow levels, they peaked in the 1970's. Prior to that time, they were increasing. Was one of the reasons some scientists were worried about a LIA forthcoming. I am really lucky, in the fact that my Grandfather had a great memory and lived through the early-mid 20th century. He talked about raising corn, easy winters of the 20-40 time period. Had to stop raising corn as it cooled too much. Climate disruption perhaps? All the AGW folks seem to only be interested in really short term climate indicators. I guess if that is all you know, then that is acceptable. However, there IS a wealth of printed information available. Of course, it takes more than the "internet" to find this. It is done the old fashioned way like I used to do. Go to libraries, find actual paper records. The internet is a wonderful tool, but only contains a small piece of all the literature/science etc that is available.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 17, 2017 23:13:20 GMT
And magically some of the internet records less congruent to alarm get adjusted - or 404ed.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 18, 2017 1:22:53 GMT
And magically some of the internet records less congruent to alarm get adjusted - or 404ed. Yes, I have observed a lot of 404ed. I now print some interesting papers that I run across to adobe format. Don't know how long they will be "available" via the net.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 18, 2017 5:22:55 GMT
I have saved stuff to disk (with secure backups) for years. The internet is quicksand .....
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Post by graywolf on Feb 27, 2017 17:32:03 GMT
Well we're still record low for extent but Area, for NSIDC, has slipped into the second lowest place. Seeing as it would need to lose another 250 thousand to make a record low area I think we're safe it calling those our 2017 mins ( position wise as we will lose more ice but not 250 thousand!!!)
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 27, 2017 18:35:46 GMT
It very well may GW. I look forward to this happening as it signals normal activity.
WHEN the ice sheets start growing, we will be in a deep!!!!!!!! And I mean deep!!!!!!!!! do dah.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 26, 2017 21:01:52 GMT
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969716327152• We examine climate variability since the 1950s in the Antarctic Peninsula region. • This region is often cited among those with the fastest warming rates on Earth. • A re-assessment of climate data shows a cooling trend initiated around 1998/1999. • This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP. • Observed changes on glacial mass balances, snow cover and permafrost state
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 27, 2017 0:40:15 GMT
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969716327152• We examine climate variability since the 1950s in the Antarctic Peninsula region. • This region is often cited among those with the fastest warming rates on Earth. • A re-assessment of climate data shows a cooling trend initiated around 1998/1999. • This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP. • Observed changes on glacial mass balances, snow cover and permafrost state More Europeans appear to be jumping off the Goremobile.
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