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Post by nonentropic on Nov 4, 2012 18:33:15 GMT
Good discussion running here.
A couple of issues /questions. There is little question that CO2 will heat the world the issue is amount. Will it even be separable from the noise.
I read somewhere that our removal of fish from the ocean has significantly depleted the oceans of Fe, does anyone have an understanding of this or a link.
It's a very significant point as just this could show that the rebalancing of the oceans Fe levels could be argued from an ecological perspective. Lastly given that the world is 60+% water what is the proportion of the photosynthesis done in each portion of the world. Land or sea.
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Post by icefisher on Nov 5, 2012 0:13:46 GMT
I read somewhere that our removal of fish from the ocean has significantly depleted the oceans of Fe, does anyone have an understanding of this or a link. It's a very significant point as just this could show that the rebalancing of the oceans Fe levels could be argued from an ecological perspective. Lastly given that the world is 60+% water what is the proportion of the photosynthesis done in each portion of the world. Land or sea.
If you read that in this forum you probably misread it as I made a post on that topic.
First, what I said was it is the claim of the man who is putting iron in the ocean that the ocean is iron poor.
Further, the reason he gave was NOT from the removal of fish but instead he believes it stems from land development particularly the irrigation of dry places that limits the amount of dust being blown from land on to the sea. So it has nothing to do with what is occurring in the oceans but instead due to anthropogenic activities on land.
It is my understanding that indeed ocean waters are iron poor and that limits the production of algae. The supposition would be if true that oceans have a biomass potential far greater than what is being realized. What I have no information on is what is the cause of the oceans being iron poor or if that is a natural condition or not.
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Post by magellan on Nov 13, 2012 1:17:20 GMT
Icefisher, People's actions in response to economic policy based on economic model output is not evil. It is just natural behaviour. Essentially, the feedbacks in economic models are much stronger and are probably more unpredictable due to people's ability to see opportunity. Unknown feedbacks and uncertain variables are there, of course, in climate models too. The question though is whether they are being fiddled (inadvertently or otherwise) to fit a bias or an expectation. I would say that since model outputs are all roughly the same, but that also they are all roughly in line with what you'd get if you made a back-of-a-f*g-packet guess, that they are not biased. I also think that up to now, the feedback estimates are about right, though something big can always come out of the woodwork (such as big methane releases or Amazon die-back) BTW the Met Office did not withdraw from seasonal prediction. They stopped publishing the forecast to the public because the probabilities inherent in such forecasts are too difficult to communicate. They continue to provide seasonal forecasts to companies and governments, and are continuing to develop their decadal forecasting capability. They got an extra 10 million out of the government last year to pay for a bigger computer for such work. They continue to provide seasonal forecasts to companies and governments,........ oops. metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/11/12/whats-in-store-this-winter-responding-to-the-headlines/The science does not exist to make detailed forecasts for temperature and snowfall for the end of this month, let alone for December or even the winter as a whole.
With regards to us ‘briefing the Government on a cold winter’, this is related to our three monthly outlook for contingency planners.
This is a complex product designed to help contingency planners making long-term strategic decisions based on risk exposure. However, it’s not useful for most other people as it doesn’t give one forecast for what’s ahead – rather it outlines potential scenarios and their associated probabilities.
It’s worth noting that while contingency planners use our three month outlook to inform long-term decisions, they make their operational decisions on our five day forecasts and warnings.
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Post by steve on Nov 15, 2012 7:59:13 GMT
magellan, What is "oops" about that. The "forecast" has always been presented in terms of "outlooks" - types of general weather with probabilities attached. The "Odds on for a barbecue summer" headline was supposed to highlight the fact. But people (obviously) latched onto the "barbecue summer" bit and ignored the "odds on" bit. Interestingly, the publicity is still on line - I bet Piers Corbyn's forecasts for that summer (including the botched August forecast) can't be found now: www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/summer2009The highlighted bits are supposed to indicate the probabilistic nature, but the language is botched and the probabilistic nature is too understated. But like now it was intended to outline "potential scenarios and their associated probabilities" as you quoted.
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Post by magellan on Nov 15, 2012 17:36:12 GMT
magellan, What is "oops" about that. The "forecast" has always been presented in terms of "outlooks" - types of general weather with probabilities attached. The "Odds on for a barbecue summer" headline was supposed to highlight the fact. But people (obviously) latched onto the "barbecue summer" bit and ignored the "odds on" bit. Interestingly, the publicity is still on line - I bet Piers Corbyn's forecasts for that summer (including the botched August forecast) can't be found now: www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/summer2009The highlighted bits are supposed to indicate the probabilistic nature, but the language is botched and the probabilistic nature is too understated. But like now it was intended to outline "potential scenarios and their associated probabilities" as you quoted. wattsupwiththat.com/?s=met+office
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Post by trbixler on Dec 2, 2012 15:45:00 GMT
Anomalous insult? "Fourteen Is the New Fifteen!" "the leaders of the global warming doomsday cult, the average surface temperature of Earth is 14 degrees Celsius (57.2 degrees Fahrenheit), but this is a new value which has quietly replaced the original average of 15 degrees Celsius (59 degrees Fahrenheit)." www.americanthinker.com/2012/11/fourteen_is_the_new_fifteen.html
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Post by karlox on Dec 2, 2012 16:24:50 GMT
magellan, What is "oops" about that. The "forecast" has always been presented in terms of "outlooks" - types of general weather with probabilities attached. The "Odds on for a barbecue summer" headline was supposed to highlight the fact. But people (obviously) latched onto the "barbecue summer" bit and ignored the "odds on" bit. Interestingly, the publicity is still on line - I bet Piers Corbyn's forecasts for that summer (including the botched August forecast) can't be found now: www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/summer2009The highlighted bits are supposed to indicate the probabilistic nature, but the language is botched and the probabilistic nature is too understated. But like now it was intended to outline "potential scenarios and their associated probabilities" as you quoted. wattsupwiththat.com/?s=met+officeFrom this chart it is interesting to notice some apparent clear modulation between solar cycles phases and temperatures drops and rises... It´s only me who can see that?
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 2, 2012 16:28:48 GMT
trbixler: Interesting how the "bar" changed.
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Post by magellan on Dec 2, 2012 17:06:47 GMT
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Post by karlox on Dec 3, 2012 9:38:11 GMT
Magellan, please, some "translation" for beginners... it´s been too much for me! (but I´ve tried!)
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Post by Ratty on Jan 27, 2013 23:07:40 GMT
Stop worrying, I've found another hockey stick (after our recent rain event) ... see graph at the end of this page: www.previous.seqwater.com.au/public/dam-levelsAustralia's Climate Commissioner has been wrong about many things, none moreso than his dams prediction: Story from Melbourne's Herald Sun
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 28, 2013 0:30:53 GMT
Stop worrying, I've found another hockey stick (after our recent rain event) ... see graph at the end of this page: www.previous.seqwater.com.au/public/dam-levelsAustralia's Climate Commissioner has been wrong about many things, none moreso than his dams prediction: Story from Melbourne's Herald SunDidn't Tim Flannery recently do a complete 180 on that and claim that flooding rains were in fact caused by global warming?
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Post by magellan on Jan 28, 2013 0:59:47 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 7, 2013 4:42:51 GMT
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Post by magellan on Feb 7, 2013 5:25:30 GMT
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