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Post by byz on Oct 16, 2012 7:45:39 GMT
Well it has been a busy year with many older Family members passing on, so I've been a little distracted  Here in the UK apart from the Olympics we had Autumn all Summer (record rainfall and apart for one month below average temperates), so no point doing Autumn watch  Looking at the satellite data lack of sea ice on the Eurasian side of the Arctic seems to be causing earlier heavier snowfall in the north. Also the with the Jetstream anchored to the south of England all Summer (instead of north of Scotland) we had a Norwegian Summer, so are we in Europe going to get a Norwegian Winter (Again!). Crop failures could point to a situation about to occur like the 14th Century where after the abundance of the 12th-13th Century the Wolf Minimum took hold (EU 15 years ago decided to get rid of food mountains, milk and wine lakes...etc I bet they are now regretting that policy as this year is what it was meant for). So an interesting Winter ahead enjoy. Keep your observations of the oncoming storm here ;D |
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Post by throttleup on Oct 16, 2012 11:36:37 GMT
byz,
I just wanted to say welcome back! Did you have much luck growing tomatoes and such this year? I know you had some record-breaking months for rain.
Nonetheless, I hope you and yours are well. I hope your coming winter isn't too bad.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 16, 2012 13:55:16 GMT
Hi byz:
One thing I do NOT want to see is you ice skating on the Thames this winter.
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 17, 2012 3:31:36 GMT
One mans misfortune is an other mans great day out. 2degress down in Africa may well boost production and prices.
All those daft Europeans can stop sending "aid" and give them markets for produce.
Food mountains destroy value and were intended purely to buy votes with other peoples money. Sounds like Bankers ha.
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Post by byz on Oct 17, 2012 5:58:35 GMT
byz,
I just wanted to say welcome back! Did you have much luck growing tomatoes and such this year? I know you had some record-breaking months for rain.
Nonetheless, I hope you and yours are well. I hope your coming winter isn't too bad. I got 3 tomatoes But going to the London Olympics was more than compensation (Showed what the UK can do if has to - makes a change from normal) ;D |
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Post by byz on Oct 17, 2012 6:35:28 GMT
Hi byz: One thing I do NOT want to see is you ice skating on the Thames this winter. At least if it was that cold some of the slugs might be wiped out The situation was so bad for wild life this Summer that squirrels chewed through netting to get to green beans and I'd never seen them eat blackberries before. I got an allotment and it was a dismal harvest, anything that grew got eaten by wildlife desperate for food. The only Summer I've seen like it was 2007 when again the Jet stream was hovering around southern England and again the sea ice at the pole was low. So the question is does the ice melt more due to the position of the jet stream spreading the cold to lower latitudes or does the melting ice move the jet stream? The interesting thing here is that UV output from the Sun is shown to affect the latitude of the Jet stream and UV output is still low so the Jet stream will have a lower latitude. However as to the ice affecting the Jet stream and vice versa correlation does not mean cause |
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 25, 2012 1:59:18 GMT
The Canadian Honkers have been slow to come south. Tonight on my way home from my daughters the sky was virtually black with honkers.
Usually, the migration is a long one. They fly in, settle for a bit. This year, they must have done that a bit further north and now all of a sudden decided it was time to book south.
I have been around for over 50 years, and I have never seen so many honkers at one time.
That tells me that cold weather is not far away.
I don't know where the snow line is in Canada. I do know that Alberta has a bit of early snow on the ground.
Geese are great at surviving. Honkers have it perfected.
i have to tell ya.....I am not keen on the amount of flying I saw today.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 25, 2012 5:04:51 GMT
The Canadian Honkers have been slow to come south. Tonight on my way home from my daughters the sky was virtually black with honkers. Usually, the migration is a long one. They fly in, settle for a bit. This year, they must have done that a bit further north and now all of a sudden decided it was time to book south. I have been around for over 50 years, and I have never seen so many honkers at one time. That tells me that cold weather is not far away. I don't know where the snow line is in Canada. I do know that Alberta has a bit of early snow on the ground. Geese are great at surviving. Honkers have it perfected. i have to tell ya.....I am not keen on the amount of flying I saw today. Alright! The honker report is in. Now lets see how long it takes NOAA to pick up the story!  |
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 25, 2012 12:30:03 GMT
Sigurdur, we are in the same flyway and the Honkers have not made it this far south yet. Usually they show upssome time in November down here.
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 25, 2012 12:55:08 GMT
byz, I'm sorry to here about you're family members. We talked about it before but a shift to colder winters does not really concern me. Disruptive growing seasons is what causes problems.
There is alot written about the crop failures due to turbulent weather during the little ice age and unpredictable weather during the growing season. Nowadays we have a lot more people to feed on this earth and you're stories of a dismal growing season and marauding wildlife gone wild is a little disturbing.
One thing I have been giving considerable thought to is a slowing jet stream. If there is less of a difference between temperatures at the equator and at the poles it stands to reason weather systems will track slower and blocking will be more prevalent. Weeks of cold and rain in and oppressive heat and drought may be the new norm and neither of which are good for crops. A faster moving jet stream brings the optimal balance between weather systems and a good mix of rain and sun.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 25, 2012 15:35:56 GMT
Glenn:
I can confirm that the birds are on their way.
Is the jet stream actually slowing? Or is it in a different position as the result of the change in placement of the Greenland High and the Icelandic Low?
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 25, 2012 19:17:25 GMT
Is it the blocking highs that give us the best picture of change in weather patterns.
The signature would be some sort of metric about circumpolar orbit time for highs /lows etc.
The observation of long periods of heat and cold is real in the recent years. (anecdotal)
I also remember some discussion of very warm periods during the LIA. Not impossible to have a heat wave in a cold period which could be 5C above recent average but the background average could be even 2C reduced due to a LIA.
Could this be some sort of "climate disruption" induced by global cooling!
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 26, 2012 17:55:57 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 26, 2012 18:10:17 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 26, 2012 21:47:50 GMT
This is another correlation causation paper. The jet streams have moved significantly equatorward and have become more affected by Rossby waves. The net result is a far longer track. There is only so much energy available in the system so the jet streams are more diffuse and slower. This seems logical. The paper claims that the problem must be due to melting arctic ice - but then talks about slowing over a longer period. Looking at the DMI temperatures for the arctic shows that the temperatures are really around the average throughout the year. So the air temperatures are not affected and are not the cause of melting - it is more likely warmer sea currents and severe storms increasing the loss of ice through the various passages south. So the claim: "But the observation of a slowing jet stream provides a compelling link with melting ice."In my opinion is not proven if not falsified. |
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