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Post by sigurdur on Nov 22, 2012 5:13:45 GMT
Hi all.
Might as well start this early. Don't have time to put a poll up.....will do so later unless someone beats me to it.
My prediction for 2013 sea ice extent is 4.26
Let's see where the dice roll?
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Dec 7, 2012 20:05:01 GMT
Hello everyone.
I've been watching the boards for a couple of years and recently got a login (thanks Kevin!). The professionalism and huge knowledge of the key members is humbling and I am a mere tyro where climate is concerned. However, I want to make a small mark on the boards, so from a simple, tyro's viewpoint I am going to predict a sea ice minimum extent for 2013 based mostly on the pattern there seems to be for the last 6 years and a "feel" from various posts here.
My prediction for 2013 sea ice extent is 4.9
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Post by throttleup on Dec 7, 2012 23:15:59 GMT
Hello everyone. I've been watching the boards for a couple of years and recently got a login (thanks Kevin!). The professionalism and huge knowledge of the key members is humbling and I am a mere tyro where climate is concerned. However, I want to make a small mark on the boards, so from a simple, tyro's viewpoint I am going to predict a sea ice minimum extent for 2013 based mostly on the pattern there seems to be for the last 6 years and a "feel" from various posts here. My prediction for 2013 sea ice extent is 4.9
Welcome to the zoo!
I would concur that there are some fine people (on both/all sides) that post here.
Don't be afraid to ask questions; everyone is pretty helpful in that regard. You just have to decide which answer is correct! 
As for my guess on arctice sea ice minimum 2013, I'm still crunching the numbers (aka: dartboard)...
Glad you're here...  |
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Post by graywolf on Dec 7, 2012 23:39:34 GMT
well very early to start 'guessing' don't you think? From what I've seen I'd imagine low ice gain in Baffin, Kara and Barrentsz? I'd poke at extensions in Berring to challenge this years max? I'd guess low thickness in Beaufort and East Siberian and a substantial loss , via Fram, of the last of the 'good ice'?
I'd be looking at an extreme version of the year past for the melt with early losses (prior to Aug) being the big story and the storms that rip the basin in Aug to be blamed for ice again breaking extent/area/volume records.
At this point it will be a shot in the dark but I'd go for sub 2.5 million come Sept 19th (min date).
I'd also see another record melt across Greenland with the 97% surface melt at least being matched (what cycle?) if not bested?
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Post by Ratty on Dec 7, 2012 23:53:33 GMT
Welcome Zaphod from Sunny Queensland Australia. My prediction for 2013: There will be ice. |
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Post by magellan on Dec 8, 2012 2:21:05 GMT
well very early to start 'guessing' don't you think? From what I've seen I'd imagine low ice gain in Baffin, Kara and Barrentsz? I'd poke at extensions in Berring to challenge this years max? I'd guess low thickness in Beaufort and East Siberian and a substantial loss , via Fram, of the last of the 'good ice'? I'd be looking at an extreme version of the year past for the melt with early losses (prior to Aug) being the big story and the storms that rip the basin in Aug to be blamed for ice again breaking extent/area/volume records. At this point it will be a shot in the dark but I'd go for sub 2.5 million come Sept 19th (min date). I'd also see another record melt across Greenland with the 97% surface melt at least being matched (what cycle?) if not bested? I'd also see another record melt across Greenland with the 97% surface melt at least being matched (what cycle?) if not bested? "record" "melt" ROFL Sure graywolf, when can we expect the floods to begin? wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/24/greenland-ice-melt-every-150-years-is-right-on-time/“Ice cores from Summit show that melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average. With the last one happening in 1889, this event is right on time,” says Lora Koenig, a Goddard glaciologist and a member of the research team analyzing the satellite data. |
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 8, 2012 3:39:48 GMT
If you decide to run a poll you need to state which index we are all looking at
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 8, 2012 10:23:05 GMT
If you decide to run a poll you need to state which index we are all looking at I am going to try to get the poll up next week, and state the index at that time. |
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Post by karlox on Dec 8, 2012 11:16:15 GMT
As forecasting is a free risky bussiness, here comes my "intuitive" forecast for Artic Ice 2013, if I hit it right I my start some pay-for forecast web myself.. :-;
Ice extension will quicly catch up in ice extension with positive anomalies through the winter compared to accepted media values. Lots of precipitations and snow through winter in NH.
Ice extension will start sometime spring end to show negatives anomalies, and fall below 4.
I´ll be more precise once I analizce astral and planets conjuctions charts further in this forum.
So: Below 4, for the moment.
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Post by graywolf on Dec 8, 2012 19:34:28 GMT
well very early to start 'guessing' don't you think? From what I've seen I'd imagine low ice gain in Baffin, Kara and Barrentsz? I'd poke at extensions in Bering to challenge this years max? I'd guess low thickness in Beaufort and East Siberian and a substantial loss , via Fram, of the last of the 'good ice'? I'd be looking at an extreme version of the year past for the melt with early losses (prior to Aug) being the big story and the storms that rip the basin in Aug to be blamed for ice again breaking extent/area/volume records. At this point it will be a shot in the dark but I'd go for sub 2.5 million come Sept 19th (min date). I'd also see another record melt across Greenland with the 97% surface melt at least being matched (what cycle?) if not bested? I'd also see another record melt across Greenland with the 97% surface melt at least being matched (what cycle?) if not bested? "record" "melt" ROFL Sure graywolf, when can we expect the floods to begin? wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/24/greenland-ice-melt-every-150-years-is-right-on-time/“Ice cores from Summit show that melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average. With the last one happening in 1889, this event is right on time,” says Lora Koenig, a Goddard glaciologist and a member of the research team analyzing the satellite data. The snow record only went back to the 1830's and the lady in question feels her words have been taken well out of context. The last period appears linked to the equatorial cooling post Krakatau ( lowering the grad between pole and equator) leading to the kind of H.P. issues we saw this year? We also see record flooding in the northern U.S. that year (the great Johnstown flood?) so we do appear to have 'stuck weather patterns across the N.Hemisphere. As for Greenland melt? Well the report card suggest that we are now seeing a doubling in melt every 4 years? With the impacts of low snow/ice/albedo flip we now see the S. Greenland H.P. becoming a major player in the melt season leading to blue sky synoptics and accentuated melt. |
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Post by karlox on Dec 8, 2012 19:42:03 GMT
Ok, my bet is low: 3.7 (Graywolfs post is most serious and important)
Warmer waters entering Artic Basin is the driver, I believe... and consistent with a pretty good recovery of Cryosphere in NH winter... til the melting comes.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Dec 19, 2012 10:09:56 GMT
There will be ice. But I am busy caring for my wife who has MS. I still read the posts here from time to time, but have no desire to feed trolls anymore. Merry Christmas to all my old friends here.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 19, 2012 10:12:30 GMT
There will be ice. But I am busy caring for my wife who has MS. I still read the posts here from time to time, but have no desire to feed trolls anymore. Merry Christmas to all my old friends here. Merry Christmas Kiwi - Nice to see you here again. |
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Post by graywolf on Dec 19, 2012 11:32:34 GMT
Hi Karlox! thank you for the kind words.
If we look to the last 3 melt years we have witnessed an important change with some of the weather patterns that used to help retain ice now actively destroying it. The past summer gave the best view of this esp. across the Beaufort Gyre with older ice being fed into the warmer waters opposite Bering. In the past the Gyre used to help age and thicken the ice before it moved across the basin , via the Trans polar drift, to Fram.
If we see thickness again pegged we know that most ice ,beyond 80N, will secumb to another 'average' summer. PIOMAS again has us bottom of the pile so ,to date, we are thinner than this time last year.
In the past weather over the melt season was responsible for the variations in the final figure but this no longer appears true?
After the 07' Crash we still had sections of the 'old perennial' ice that appeared to be resposible , as it collapsed into the 'rotten ice' that Dr Barber noted for the 'rebound' of ice min for the few years after the crash.
This time we do not have this resourse to 'plump up' the year end total area/extent. I am tied as to whether to see a similar amount of ice or whether we are indeed in some 'end game' for the ice? I'd love to think that extent/area would stall at last years min (there abouts) for a few years before the next drop but I am doubting that this is going to prove true? As it is the past few mins have been followed by years not having more ice than the previous low (all lows post 07' beat the record before 07's min) so is 07' the max we can ever expect again? To think it took a 'perfect Storm' to origionally make 07's losses but now any old year will beat it???
The other thing being the high pressdure over S. Greenland. If this 'blue sky synoptic helped drive the warm water anom off the east coast U.S. and is now a new 'norm' for the area then we can expect the N.A.D. not to lose the heat it used to whilst transiting this sea area meaning it arrives warmer into the basin. If this is so then the 'Laptev Bite' will occur again mid Aug and if it's extent increase again we could see it reach the pole or even split the remaining ice into 2 islands?
Were this to occur I'd worry over the fate of the island Fram side of the Basin.
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Post by throttleup on Dec 19, 2012 13:48:31 GMT
Good to see you again, kiwi! My best to you and yours (and to everyone here as well).
graywolf makes a compelling case. I may change my mind... but for now I'm going to play it safe and go with 0.
That covers the Arctic, Greenland, Hudson Bay, the stinking Fram, the Great Salt Lake and my freezer.
I still may alter my estimate of ZERO ice. I may have to go negative. Zero may not be low enough.
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