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Post by nonentropic on May 19, 2013 5:12:39 GMT
Thanks Sig.
You illustrate the rational response to markets. That means you sweat every price change of inputs and products you intend to deliver and if that isn't enough you have to sweat the weather past and future.
If all that isn't enough you have a bunch of spin doctors manipulating the outputs of the science community running an agenda thats totally detached from your world but utterly affects it.
Their goal is to progress their ideology which supports their status in the ruling class.
The cost is to the poor and the general productive and risk taking community, they have not even noticed that the money they spend is not "government money" but productive community taxes. If the operation kills the patient it will kill them , they have become so detached that this fact escapes them.
Without trying to sound like I have a thing about Obama, but he spent on his campaign $1b, a lot. Where did it come from?
There were many small players contributions but the big bucks were the Silicon valley big players all fine up till now.
Now his key plank is lift the tax take for the greedy rich. Those are people earning sinful amounts like $250 to several million per year.
Have you noticed the problem, no discussion of taxing those nasty people and companies making 10s of billions and paying a penny or two in the dollar.
20% for all maximum tax rate, no dodgers at all. Research shows that the long run revenue take is at 20% approximately,
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Post by karlox on May 19, 2013 8:37:04 GMT
I don't hold any views on knives etc just that remote release of weapons allows people to loose the clear understanding of military carnage, I think we need to retain that picture when we expect people to fight. Obama is clearly detached currently as he willing supports such warfare. The Republicans were no better so I would suggest they need some battlefield reality. (difficult though) Regarding markets, economics 101 talks about elastic markets , if prices of food rise due less than optimal climatic conditions in the traditional growing regions it will stimulate a vigorous expansion in acreage and in more favorable growing regions. Corn may also become a food again rather than a fuel. We do not need to have a central intervention to guide us to our solution we just need the government to ensure the barriers are up. As the world is projected to grow from the 7 billion to 9 billion in the coming years food production will have to increase. In my state, WA state, I don't see where they are going to do a vigorous expansion. There are some places that can support growth but growth costs money. Further climatic change, hot or cold, will stymie attempts to utilize these other areas. The reason we grow where we do now is convenience and suitability. Assuming the climate is usable will we have the money to bear the energy costs? I know what diesel costs at the pumps retail and wonder what the cost per gallon is for someone like Sig who buys in bulk? Now add a dollar, two, three to that cost and it affects his bottom line. Sig also mentioned he's spending $158 per acre this year for fertilizer. Last I heard there was a shortage and prices would probably head higher in years to come. Assuming his farm is 1000 acres, the average is 1300, he spent $158,000 this year on fertilizer. Good Lord! Bottom line it looks like food prices will head higher and the world's poor are going to pay for it but how?? Maybe communism's time as come? The big collective farm idea eh comrade? www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpS4fCF4tqoUS was the homeland of current extensive agricultural production. In Spain in desertic Almeria (South-East corner), greenhouse industrial hydrophonic grows boosted production (like 3 tomatoes harvest per year) and provides nearly half of Europe´s demand on many veg products. Now this model is spreading south to Morocco. Don´t you think that for many vegs this is the only way to boost production for an expansive demands of food supply? How is US doing in such type of farm bussiness? (though I suppose that well)
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Post by nonentropic on May 19, 2013 9:54:09 GMT
Visit California its simply sensational what is produced and there's plenty of room in the area for intensification and expansion. I would also suggest that a temperature rise or fall will be taken in its stride.
the last bastion of the doom brigade is water. You can already hear the chat, oh well we may have plenty of energy but we are short of water.
So we know that water usage per unit of production drops with the lift in CO2 so that doom is averted, thank god we are going to survive. A big disappointment for the grim brigade.
In addition to that I will list the ways water will not be an issue. 1. If you have energy you can desalinate. shale gas is in the realms of 100years infinite, clever people will build something by then. 2. There is a new desalination technology in final development, one third the energy required, and there will be many more even better than that. 3.glass houses reduce water usage dramatically per unit output. They are getting cheaper to build. There will be heaps of them. 4. The GM boys are developing saline tolerant crops or more correctly more saline tolerance it opens up water sources and water management flexibility. Etc etc etc
Let everyone rest easily stop frightening the kids with black magic stories about a doomed future it will be fantastic a pity we can't all live as long as our kids to see the stuff they will.
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Post by sigurdur on May 19, 2013 14:01:10 GMT
The drought of 2012 in the USA and the production that was there is a large scale example of what higher CO2 does.
Water was the main issue, yet yields were surprisingly good. The yield models of the past need to be tweaked for this more efficient water use. It is a very important issue. Stoma counts show the story, but you never hear this in the AGW literature.
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Post by karlox on May 19, 2013 18:35:12 GMT
Visit California its simply sensational what is produced and there's plenty of room in the area for intensification and expansion. I would also suggest that a temperature rise or fall will be taken in its stride. the last bastion of the doom brigade is water. You can already hear the chat, oh well we may have plenty of energy but we are short of water. So we know that water usage per unit of production drops with the lift in CO2 so that doom is averted, thank god we are going to survive. A big disappointment for the grim brigade. In addition to that I will list the ways water will not be an issue. 1. If you have energy you can desalinate. shale gas is in the realms of 100years infinite, clever people will build something by then. 2. There is a new desalination technology in final development, one third the energy required, and there will be many more even better than that. 3.glass houses reduce water usage dramatically per unit output. They are getting cheaper to build. There will be heaps of them. 4. The GM boys are developing saline tolerant crops or more correctly more saline tolerance it opens up water sources and water management flexibility. Etc etc etc Let everyone rest easily stop frightening the kids with black magic stories about a doomed future it will be fantastic a pity we can't all live as long as our kids to see the stuff they will. I am more than happy to know about new costless desalination tecnology: that could make a big difference! But I do care and worry about overexploitation or polution of our acquifers... Certainly Glass-Houses Grows are very efficient in the use of water, and somecases same water is being re-used... now new techiques, as the use of insects to avoid overdosis of pesticides, are being equally applied... that´s a good track to be followed as well... Yet, how many billions are still subject to open-skies corn cereal and rice harvest in the world?
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Post by karlox on May 19, 2013 18:40:09 GMT
US was the homeland of current extensive agricultural production. In Spain in desertic Almeria (South-East corner), greenhouse industrial hydrophonic grows boosted production (like 3 tomatoes harvest per year) and provides nearly half of Europe´s demand on many veg products. Now this model is spreading south to Morocco. Don´t you think that for many vegs this is the only way to boost production for an expansive demands of food supply? How is US doing in such type of farm bussiness? (though I suppose that well) I chatted with a family last week who run a greenhouse in the area and sampled their tomatoes. Nice. I should have asked them how many harvests they average. It would seem in Spain they have an abundance of sun but a lack of water, the opposite of the PNW.
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Post by karlox on May 19, 2013 18:41:29 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on May 19, 2013 20:00:16 GMT
Ya know, I am amazed that I have made it to 60. What with all the food borne illness etc......wonder how I keep missing these? Could it be that we know how to cook in our older ages? ?? Unbelievable Karlox that you can't use eggs.......
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Post by sigurdur on May 19, 2013 20:01:52 GMT
Where is this at Karlox? That is a huge increase in greenhouses.
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Post by karlox on May 20, 2013 7:56:55 GMT
Where is this at Karlox? That is a huge increase in greenhouses. Sigurdur, South-East corner of Spain -dryiest place within the Iberian Peninsula- Almeria´s greenhouse grows can be easily seen from satellites views. Albedo here ought to be high?
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Post by karlox on May 20, 2013 7:59:16 GMT
Ya know, I am amazed that I have made it to 60. What with all the food borne illness etc......wonder how I keep missing these? Could it be that we know how to cook in our older ages? ?? Unbelievable Karlox that you can't use eggs....... Sigur, you can purchase and use eggs at home; it´s a regulation for restaurants only... but we´ll get to that eventually, I fear.
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Post by nonentropic on May 20, 2013 19:09:25 GMT
It's got $90 oil and there is a bit of action economically, more to the point the oil price has been up for 8 years now every year I travel in US and I am amazed how the cars use less and less fuel.
In addition gas prices are now at something like $20/b equivilant. So the energy users are switching over.
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Post by nautonnier on May 21, 2013 6:13:09 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on May 21, 2013 6:17:49 GMT
It's got $90 oil and there is a bit of action economically, more to the point the oil price has been up for 8 years now every year I travel in US and I am amazed how the cars use less and less fuel. In addition gas prices are now at something like $20/b equivilant. So the energy users are switching over. But the dollar is dropping in value due to 'quantitative easing'. So you need to use some kind of 'net present value' adjustment. If you had told me some years ago that supermarkets would be selling shrink wrapped single potatoes or bread at $4 or more a loaf I would not have believed it
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ray
New Member
Posts: 35
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Post by ray on May 23, 2013 19:20:17 GMT
Theo,
Is there any stock in what NOAA is predicting for hurricane season? Does it mesh well with your forecast?
DJ U.S. Agency Predicts 'Extremely Active' 2013 Hurricane Season
By Tennille Tracy
WASHINGTON--The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration released its hurricane forecast for the Atlantic basin on Thursday, predicting up to 20 "named" storms and up to six major hurricanes this year.
That would be twice as many major hurricanes as average and "well above" the seasonal average of 12 named storms, NOAA said.
The agency says the 2013 season is expected to be "active or extremely active." The season begins June 1 and lasts six months.
A busy hurricane season could strike as New York, New Jersey and other eastern states continue to grapple with the devastation caused by superstorm Sandy. The storm, which hit the northern coastline on Oct. 29, killed dozens of people and caused billions of dollars of damage.
According to report released Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the most common cause of death related to Sandy was drowning. Other common causes for death were carbon monoxide poisoning and trauma from being crushed, cut or struck.
"The start of hurricane season is a reminder that our families, businesses and communities need to be ready for the next big storm," said Joe Nimmich, an associate administrator at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Several factors will contribute to this season's activity.
According to NOAA, an atmospheric climate pattern going back to 1995 continues to cause high hurricane activity. Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are also playing a role, while a warm ocean current known as El Nino, which can suppress hurricane formation, is not expected to develop.
"This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA.
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