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Post by sigurdur on May 23, 2013 23:08:48 GMT
Ryan Mue thinks there are going to be a lot of hurricanes in 2013 as well. Also Joe Bastardi.
As far as difficulties, 7.2 inches of rain makes the ground really wet, not even mentioning the pooled water all over the place.
Going to be a difficult finish to planting in NE ND and southern Manitoba.
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Post by AstroMet on May 26, 2013 4:39:11 GMT
It will be an active summer - and autumn - climatewise. This is a more variable climate year than 2012 was, and I continue to maintain that we are in transition between two climate regimes, the waning years of global warming and the oncoming years of global cooling. That accounts for much of the weather that will see and experience this solar year. Flooding in Texas -> www.cnn.com/2013/05/25/us/texas-san-antonio-flooding/index.html
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 4, 2013 5:34:39 GMT
The cold wet spring we have had continued through May, and as expected, we are seeing signs of impending flooding, so it's important for any farmers who don't have their Soybean insurance to get it. The deadline for most should be June 15th.
The fact of the matter is that most farmers lost spring to the cold, wet conditions and are six to eight weeks behind. That means a late harvest, but on the other end of that is the coming winter season.
It's going to be a race to the finish through summer to make a decent harvest, and we'll need it too, considering the cooler temperature signs I am seeing for this autumn and the coming winter. This depends on where you are of course, but generally, I would say for farmers to really make the most out of what Mother Nature will give this summer and to have that insurance handy.
Soybean yields on average decline by a quarter of a bushel to nearly a bushel per day if the seed isn't in the ground after May 15. Some farmers know that modern seed varieties can catch up quickly and they could have a decent harvest if conditions are good from now on.
Reasons are that although topsoil has improved with the rains as the drought spreads further west we have some regions , including those that are now seeing late snowmelt could easily flood. Astronomic transits show a busy month of flooding throughout the northern hemisphere. This would include the Mississippi and its tributaries.
My forecast for this summer is a warm, muggy, nearly tropical and wet summer with more cloudy days than last summer. Temperatures will warm up through June and July but it will be tricky navigating due to the late start in the planting season and this has implications for the coming growing season and toward harvest.
For instance, in Iowa the cold and wet conditions meant that 2 million acres of the projected 14 million acres of corn in Iowa were not planted as the month of June approached. That's equal to the entire corn production of Texas or North Dakota.
Projections are that American farmers will fail to plant somewhere between 6 million to 7 million acres of the 97 million the USDA expected. So were are looking at about 12.7 billion bushels nationally. And with prices at about $5.50 to $6 a bushel. There were predictions of $4 a bushel before the impact of the cold, wet spring set in over March, April and May 2013.
All indications are that farmers won't make the 14.3 billion bushel crop. Mother Nature as played her hand and that to me means we've got lower-than-expected yields for harvest with higher corn prices. The meat market prices will rise and there's not going to as much activity in ethanol production. They will close a few facilities to save money.
Crop Progress reports that,
"Planting progress in the top 18 corn producing states progressed by a leisurely 5% as wet weather continued to prevent farmers from finishing the planting of the 2013 corn crop. If further delays continue, soybeans and preventative planting will take the place of corn acres.
As of June 2, 2013 91% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted. Corn that has emerged was at 74%, down 8% from the five year average and down 22% from the previous year. Corn conditions were 7% of the crop in poor or very poor conditions, compared to 5% last year. And corn in good or excellent conditions was 63%, compared to 72% last year.
Soybeans planted were at 57%, behind the five year average of 74%. Last year at this time, 76% of soybeans had emerged, but only 31% have emerged as of June 2, 2013.
Winter wheat conditions were 43% of the crop in poor or very poor condition compared to only 18% at the same time last year. Winter wheat in good or excellent condition was 32%, compared to 52% last year. Last year at this time, 88% of winter wheat had headed, but only 73% has headed this year.
As of June 2, 2013 80% of the spring wheat has been planted, lagging the 100% planted last year. Of the spring wheat crop, 61% has emerged compared to the five year average of 80%.
The July corn contract decreased 1.6% over the past week ending at $6.55 per bushel, soybean prices increased by 1.5% over the past week ending at $15.32 per bushel, and wheat prices ended the week at $7.08 per bushel, a 2.2% increase from last week. Year to year corn prices are up 18.9%, soybeans are up 14% and wheat is up 15.7%."
And AgriMoney Reports this -
"Poor weather will prevent US farmers sowing nearly 4m acres of corn, Morgan Stanley warned, cutting its forecast for seedings and warning that "production risks are building" for the grain.
The bank cut to 93.5m acres its forecast for US corn plantings, warning that rainy weather in the Midwest and northern Plains is "starting to have a material impact".
"With only one week remaining before final planting dates in the last of the Corn Belt states, and another week of widespread rains in the forecast, farmers are going to be hard-pressed to plant all of their expected corn acreage," Morgan Stanley said.
Dates have already passed for many states, such as Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin, for farmers to sow corn within dates rendering crops eligible for insurance - although they may be able to claim on so-called "prevent plant" policies, encouraging them to abandon seeding plans.
Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin each had over 1m acres left to plant" as of a week ago. The downgraded area forecast compared with the 97.3m acres that farmers intended to sow with corn, according to a US Department of Agriculture survey in March, and implies a bigger loss than many other analysts are factoring in.
"Estimates vary, but the trade is generally anticipating that 1.5m-3.0m acres could be lost," said Ben Bradbury at broker Benson Quinn Commodities.
And it prompted Morgan Stanley to cut to 13.3bn bushels its estimate for the US corn harvest - still enough to beat the current record of 13.1bn bushels, set in 2009, but by a far smaller margin than that foreseen by USDA officials, who forecast a 14.1bn-bushel harvest.
And the bank added that "further downside is possible" to the production estimate, given the likelihood of farmers in northern states, where the growing season is shorter, opting to claim prevent plant insurance on unsown acres.
"For now we only assume a quarter of unplanted land in Iowa," - the top corn producing state, further south – "will be left fallow or switched to soybeans.
"We could still revise this estimate lower if weather keeps central Corn Belt farmers out of their fields through mid-June."
'Production risks building'
"Production risks are building," Morgan Stanley warned, if adding that the impact on prices of poor sowings has been largely factored in, and that it would take heat during the sensitive pollination period, as last year, to dent significantly ideas of improved corn supplies.
"We caution that it will still take adverse summer weather to keep US new-crop supply from building substantially year on year.
"Our new US corn acreage estimate, on trend-line yields, would still leave US 2013-14 stocks-to-use at a comfortable 10%."
The stocks-to-use ratio - in measuring supply tightness, and therefore the degree to which buyers will need to compete for supplies – is a key pricing metric.
Price outlook
Morgan Stanley kept at $5.30 a bushel its forecast for Chicago corn prices in 2013-14.
The new crop December contract stood at $5.69 ¾ a bushel in early deals on Monday, a gain of 0.4% on the day, but up more than 6% week on week.
The bank is more upbeat on prospects for soybean futures, which it views as the most bullish bet among major commodities, thanks to the need to win acreage and replenish diminished world supplies."
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 6, 2013 2:56:04 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 6, 2013 4:04:58 GMT
ND did not plant approx 685,000 acres of corn. Spring Wheat is also way behind. All crops here are way behind. There will b prevent planting. No two ways around it. The ins payment sucks tho.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 6, 2013 19:43:09 GMT
Sig, Spring wheat? Summer wheat? How many crops of wheat can one grow in ND in a typical season? Two? Codehacker: No, only one. Spring wheat is wheat seeded in the spring, whereas winter wheat is wheat seeded in the fall and the wheat goes dormant during the winter. Spring wheat is a higher quality wheat.
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 14, 2013 2:47:31 GMT
Sig, Spring wheat? Summer wheat? How many crops of wheat can one grow in ND in a typical season? Two? Codehacker: No, only one. Spring wheat is wheat seeded in the spring, whereas winter wheat is wheat seeded in the fall and the wheat goes dormant during the winter. Spring wheat is a higher quality wheat. Well, either way, with one of the worst droughts that I forecasted last year for 2012, that dry spell in the Midwest that persisted through the early part of this year has spread further west, as forecasted. And then, the cold, wet spring with torrential rains this spring that has overwhelmed vast stretches of the country, including much of the farm belt. One result has been flooded acres that have drowned corn and soybean plants, stunted their growth or prevented them from being planted at all. All of this is going to cause prices to rise. If there is a shortage of corn and soybeans this year then the feed costs are going to rise and that means higher meat prices too. Again, the drought continues, with about 44 percent of the country still suffering from drought. I continue to state, as I always have, that drought and floods can, and do co-exist at the same time. We are seeing this played out in front of our very eyes. For instance, since the start of 2013, if you look at parts of the Mississippi River basin, say from from eastern Minnesota down through Illinois and Missouri, well, they've received up to 3 times their average precipitation. Storm systems brought floods to parts of Montana and the Dakotas, into Nebraska, Iowa and Oklahoma. Iowa, which is America's top corn producer, got a record 17.66 inches of rain this spring. The problem has been that farmers need about two to four inches of topsoil to be dry so that when they are planting they can drive tractors in the field and not pack down the mud. That mud prevents roots from receiving oxygen. Over-saturated soil means that pockets of oxygen can filter through to help plant roots breathe are instead filled with water, while the moisture should be in the soil directly below the seed. But with the cold wet spring and with rain falling day after day, farmers are really pressed to find decent opportunities when they have dry topsoil to get into fields to plant. Near Kansas City, which got about 23.6 inches of rain this year, they are just four inches shy of the total for all of 2012. By this time in June, about three weeks after planting corn should be about waist high. But instead, some corn crop appear like rows of small blades of grass. The plants pop about only four inches out of the ground and the leaves are a pale yellow with brown lesions. Patches I'm hearing about on fields are bald and have been washed away by the rains. The soil is mucky and chocolate brown in some spots. This is a result of the colder temperatures and cloudy skies that prevent the land from drying even when it's not raining. That's been my forecast for the spring, and the summer will not be as sun-bright as last year. We are going to have a wet, cloudy summer and farmers are already more than a month behind in their planting. Some farmers have told me that they have even given up planting all their seeds since planting late could stunt the growth of crops, decreasing harvest yields. July looks cloudy to me, warm, but wetter than normal over most of the farm belt. It looks better after July 20th and then into August. But farmers need about a week of temperatures in the 80s or 90s so the corn can shoot up.
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ray
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Post by ray on Jun 17, 2013 22:01:30 GMT
Thanks for the response Theo. One quick question when you get a chance. When the global cooling period begins around 2017, do you think it will be as severe as the sporer and maunder minimums or something less severe? Thanks, Ray Hi Ray, We're in the transition years now, from global warming to global cooling. During these transition years, we will see extreme weather conditions; i.e., wild temperature fluctuations worldwide; with drought and floods co-existing, with above average and below average temperatures, gusting winds, tornados, and intermittent blasting storms with heavy rains and snows. A little bit of it all. From my long-range projections it looks like a decent neo-boreal climate, a mini-ice age is on the way. That's been my global climate forecast for years now. My astrometeorological analysis shows global cooling to begin to really set in about 2021-2023, when I have forecasted the next major ENSO, by means of La Nina, to arrive. Then, afterwards, it becomes progressively colder and wetter, into what will be known as another maunder minimum = global cooling. That would be the first third (12 years) of the global cooling climate years. That takes us through the 2020s and into the second third decade of the 2030s. That's where I estimate global cooling peaks - in the mid-2030s - then into the last third of the global cooling regime of the 2040s, where it's still cold and wet, but progressively the global cooling climate weakens into the early 2050s. That's the length of this regime of global cooling. Theo, here is a good video although you probably dont need a history lesson. The video mentions that the Thames and New York Harbor froze over completely during the little ice age. Do you think this could be a possibility in the forthcoming global cooling? Also, how you do think Alaska(Anchorage) will fare? I'm curious about Alaska because I'm thinking about moving up there. Thanks, Ray link
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Post by neilhamp on Jun 18, 2013 19:26:30 GMT
Astromet,
Have you seen the latest outcome from the UK Met Office workshop
"As to the current summer season", according to Dr Adam Scaife from the Hadley Centre, "you'd be wise to keep an umbrella handy."
"In 2012, like the previous few summers, we've had conditions in the northernmost Atlantic that were much warmer than normal.
"So that pre-conditioning was there this year and that shifts the odds slightly in favour of this summer being wetter than the historical average."
Are you forecasting a wet summer for the UK this year. The Met.Office have an infamous record of getting these things wrong
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 19, 2013 6:01:31 GMT
Hi Ray, We're in the transition years now, from global warming to global cooling. During these transition years, we will see extreme weather conditions; i.e., wild temperature fluctuations worldwide; with drought and floods co-existing, with above average and below average temperatures, gusting winds, tornados, and intermittent blasting storms with heavy rains and snows. A little bit of it all. From my long-range projections it looks like a decent neo-boreal climate, a mini-ice age is on the way. That's been my global climate forecast for years now. My astrometeorological analysis shows global cooling to begin to really set in about 2021-2023, when I have forecasted the next major ENSO, by means of La Nina, to arrive. Then, afterwards, it becomes progressively colder and wetter, into what will be known as another maunder minimum = global cooling. That would be the first third (12 years) of the global cooling climate years. That takes us through the 2020s and into the second third decade of the 2030s. That's where I estimate global cooling peaks - in the mid-2030s - then into the last third of the global cooling regime of the 2040s, where it's still cold and wet, but progressively the global cooling climate weakens into the early 2050s. That's the length of this regime of global cooling. Theo, here is a good video although you probably dont need a history lesson. The video mentions that the Thames and New York Harbor froze over completely during the little ice age. Do you think this could be a possibility in the forthcoming global cooling? Also, how you do think Alaska(Anchorage) will fare? I'm curious about Alaska because I'm thinking about moving up there. Thanks, Ray linkThanks for that Ray. And my answer is yes. All of the signals I plot astronomically clearly show that global cooling is on the way. It is the reason for many of the anomalies we've seen over recent years in many regions worldwide. So while the politicians debate global warming, they are on the wrong track. I've been preparing for global cooling, with those blasting storms, cold and wet climate that seriously is a real danger for the world. And speaking of the anomalies, it's been rather 'warm' in Alaska of late. Check this out -> www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/06/18/record-shattering-heat-bakes-alaska/
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 19, 2013 6:03:47 GMT
Astromet, Have you seen the latest outcome from the UK Met Office workshop "As to the current summer season", according to Dr Adam Scaife from the Hadley Centre, "you'd be wise to keep an umbrella handy." "In 2012, like the previous few summers, we've had conditions in the northernmost Atlantic that were much warmer than normal. "So that pre-conditioning was there this year and that shifts the odds slightly in favour of this summer being wetter than the historical average." Are you forecasting a wet summer for the UK this year. The Met.Office have an infamous record of getting these things wrong Yes Neil, that's been my forecast: a cloudy and wet summer. There will be days of above average or normal summer temperatures since it will be summer, but it will be cloudier and wetter this year than in 2012. Then, there's the snowy winter just ahead (plan for lots of snow in England this coming winter as it will be cold and wetter for the winter of 2014.)
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ray
New Member
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Post by ray on Jun 20, 2013 2:35:43 GMT
Theo, here is a good video although you probably dont need a history lesson. The video mentions that the Thames and New York Harbor froze over completely during the little ice age. Do you think this could be a possibility in the forthcoming global cooling? Also, how you do think Alaska(Anchorage) will fare? I'm curious about Alaska because I'm thinking about moving up there. Thanks, Ray linkThanks for that Ray. And my answer is yes. All of the signals I plot astronomically clearly show that global cooling is on the way. It is the reason for many of the anomalies we've seen over recent years in many regions worldwide. So while the politicians debate global warming, they are on the wrong track. I've been preparing for global cooling, with those blasting storms, cold and wet climate that seriously is a real danger for the world. And speaking of the anomalies, it's been rather 'warm' in Alaska of late. Check this out -> www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/06/18/record-shattering-heat-bakes-alaska/Theo, when you say "preparing for global cooling", how exactly are you preparing for it? Maybe preparing your house with better insulation and double pane windows or maybe preparing food wise due to possible food shortages?
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 21, 2013 4:14:37 GMT
That is a serious situation. How much rain did they get?
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 21, 2013 4:37:09 GMT
The spring wheat crop in ND is off to a lousy start. World wide, wheat is in pretty good shape. High quality milling wheat may be a bit short tho.
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 23, 2013 2:16:46 GMT
Thanks for that Ray. And my answer is yes. All of the signals I plot astronomically clearly show that global cooling is on the way. It is the reason for many of the anomalies we've seen over recent years in many regions worldwide. So while the politicians debate global warming, they are on the wrong track. I've been preparing for global cooling, with those blasting storms, cold and wet climate that seriously is a real danger for the world. And speaking of the anomalies, it's been rather 'warm' in Alaska of late. Check this out -> www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/06/18/record-shattering-heat-bakes-alaska/Theo, when you say "preparing for global cooling", how exactly are you preparing for it? Maybe preparing your house with better insulation and double pane windows or maybe preparing food wise due to possible food shortages? Preparing means just that Ray, and in all ways, physically, mentally, etc., as global cooling is no joke. It is much much worse than global warming could ever be and that means learning how to live in a colder and wetter environment for decades.
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