Theo, you were right. The drought is heading west.
DJ California Farm Belt Shrivels After Two Years of Dry Weather, Regulatory Water Cuts
By Jim Carlton
HURON, Calif.--Two years of dry weather and regulatory water cuts are taking
a mounting toll on California's giant farm belt, forcing farmers to idle more
fields and workers even as much of the rest of the Golden State continues to
recover from a debilitating recession.
As they did last year after a dry winter forced state and federal water
managers to cut their allotments, farmers here in the Central Valley again this
year are letting fields go fallow after being advised they would receive as
little as 20% of their contracted supplies of water from the mountains of
Northern California.
At Harris Farms off Interstate 5, executives say they have opted to fallow
3,037 of their 14,000 local acres this year, compared with 2,600 in 2012, and
plan to triple that to 9,236 acres next year. In so doing, the big farm expects
to shed all but 500 to 1,000 of its 4,000 seasonal workers by next year,
executives of the farm say.
David Wood, chairman of the company's beef division, warned the economic
fallout rippling across the sprawling valley is likely to worsen next year, as
farmers have to make planting decisions for 2014 based on water cuts scheduled
to extend at least until early next year.
"This year will be tough, but next year could be catastrophic," Mr. Wood
said. The production cutbacks aren't expected to affect U.S. food prices much,
because other growing areas such as Mexico can fill in the gap.
Exact estimates on acreage cutbacks throughout the valley, where much of the
state's $40 billion-a-year agriculture industry is based, haven't yet been
tallied, but farming officials expect them to be substantial. The amount of
land used to plant cotton, for example, will shrink 24% this year to 280,000
acres from 367,000 acres in 2012, off from a five-year peak of 456,000 in 2011,
according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.
Officials of the 614,000-acre Westlands Water District, where Harris Farms is
situated, say many of its farmers plan to fallow fields this year after the
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in March cut water allotments in their district to
20% of its normal amount. In 2012, the agency had cut the allotment to 40% from
80% in 2011, which was the last wet year in a state that frequently undergoes
drought.
California's mountain snowpack was 52% of its normal average April 1, when it
is typically at its peak, compared with 55% the same time in 2012 and 165% in
2011, according to surveys by the California Department of Water Resources.
The slowdown comes as the Central Valley, one of the hardest-hit parts of
California during the recession, has been regaining its footing. The
unemployment rate in Fresno County, for instance, fell to 11.8% in May from
14.9% a year earlier, according to Labor Department estimates. California as a
whole has been recovering, with unemployment falling to 8.6% in May from 10.7%
a year earlier. The U.S. unemployment rate was 7.6% in May.
But with estimates of as many as seven jobs dependent on each one on the
farm, business leaders here worry the economic recovery in the Central Valley
will fizzle out, especially in towns wholly dependent on agriculture. Here in
Huron, a town of 7,000 about 50 miles southwest of Fresno, businesses already
report a falloff in sales this year.
"Water equals money here," said Ron McIlroy, owner of McIlroy Equipment, an
agricultural manufacturer that has seen sales fall 30% this year from the same
time in 2012.
In Huron, even workers still in the fields are tightening their belts. On a
recent break from hoeing in a melon field, 40-year-old Marta Patricio of Huron
said that while she works 60 hours a week, she expects her hours to be sharply
reduced soon. "I'm worried because I have to be able to work to sustain myself
and my family," said Ms. Patricio, a single mother of three.
That sentiment is hurting small-business owners such as Ahmed Alarami, who
estimates sales at his Buford Star Mart gas and convenience store in Huron have
fallen 45% so far this year compared with last. As a result, he recently closed
an in-store deli that had employed three workers, leaving only himself and one
employee to run the rest of the business. "I'm thinking next year it will be
even worse," Mr. Alarami said.
Farmers blame the water shortages on a system they say exacerbates the impact
of periodic dry spells, such as when flows are shut off in the Sacramento-San
Joaquin Delta because of federal restrictions to protect species such as the
endangered smelt.
Gov. Jerry Brown is backing a plan to overhaul the system by building twin
diversionary tunnels, but it faces an uncertain outcome amid a flurry of
lawsuits recently filed against it by opponents including farmers and
environmentalists.
For now, farmers are making do the best they can. On his family's 3,600-acre
farm near here, Dan Errotabere recently drove his truck past some of the 600
acres of fields he is letting go fallow this year-- almost twice as much as
last year. He said that is forcing the farm to use half its normal level of 80
seasonal workers for tomatoes and other crops.
"This system," Mr. Errotabere said, "does not work without water."