Theo is talking about the continuing drought that is now spreading west....conditions seem to have improved somewhat in certain parts of the corn belt but have worsened in western states.
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/I based my statement on this post:
solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/1929?page=13I love Astromet to death, but am always suspicious of long range forecasts and when they are wrong, they are wrong, period. Pilgrim inquired about his lon/lat in Iowa (north central to be exact). Astro's forecast was
So I went to Ag Web's forecast page for Iowa
www.agweb.com/blog/Farmland_Forecast_148/They are not worried about blistering heat and no rain, but late maturing crops do to cold.
There is no "continuing drought". There just isn't. Every year there will states or regions drier than others; it's been that way forever. In order for it to be
continuing would mean it is similar to last year and
continue. Those drought monitor charts are about as reliable as NCDC temperature records, and there are contradictions within NOAA's precipitation charts. For instance, once NOAA source says California for June is 'normal' another says 'above normal'. Also, if drought is moving West, that must mean it was to the East; nothing of the sort happened. Michigan is green and pretty much average temps for the summer. In fact, I haven't had so much trouble with grass clumping in the mower deck since 2009.
Some were saying 2012 was the onset of a 1930's type drought. There were no large rain storms or floods during that period. Look at Kansas for instance.
stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/07/30/kansas-gets-12-inches-of-rain-as-residents-work-to-end-the-drought/He has post after post about rain in areas supposedly in a severe drought.
stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/07/29/the-mildew-drought-of-2013/stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/07/29/new-mexico-gets-30-50-of-their-annual-rainfall-in-one-week-government-says-they-are-having-an-exceptional-drought/stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/07/25/despite-200-of-normal-precipitation-southwest-remains-in-exceptional-drought/Here are the precipitation data for regions and states through June:
Now look at the drought monitor for say Texas in June. Severe to extreme drought?
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/archive.htmlBottom line: record corn crops so far in 2013. That is not indicative of continuing drought.
www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-02/corn-heads-for-third-weekly-decline-as-production-seen-at-record.htmlI mean no disrespect to Astro, but the facts are what they are.
Hi Magellan,
No disrespect taken, and thanks, however, I would like to correct you on what the FACTS truly are, if you don't mind.
I've been working on my autumn 2013, winter & spring 2014 outlook, but wanted to comment about weather conditions that I've forecasted.
First, on my climate forecast on global cooling...
Regarding Global Cooling:It is coming, for certain. I suggest that everyone prepare for it. Global cooling is no joke.
I have forecasted global cooling to begin officially in the solar year of 2017 (December of that year) and last approximately 36 years. Global cooling will peak in the mid-2030s, and then wane in the 2040s, but will still remain a major climate player of course.
Global cooling is very bad for the Earth; while global warming is good for the Earth. Moreover, we are seeing the signs of this transition take place now, as it has been for more expert eyes over the last several years.
As for the next ENSO, I have forecasted that to take place in the years 2021 to 2023, and this ENSO will be of the La Nina type, cold and wet for some regions, and cold and drier for others. This next ENSO will be the first to take place under the new global cooling regime in our lifetimes and it will affect everyone.
On the FACTS OF 2013'S Climate To Date:We have had a very variable year in 2013, as forecasted, and Magellan, there have been, and are 'blistering temperatures' THIS YEAR as forecasted.
I don't know what weather you are watching out there, but the heat waves, on the east, middle, and west coasts of North America (and in regions of Europe) have been here this summer:
See ->
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/one-dead-and-dozens-sick-as-temperatures-hit-51c-in-blistering-us-heatwave-8680285.htmlSee ->
www.kristv.com/news/very-hot-weather-ahead/See ->
www.democratandchronicle.com/usatoday/article/2518203See ->
kgnb.am/news/heat-advisory-temps-top-100-degrees-heat-index-readings-104-107See ->
www.nj.com/washington-township-times/index.ssf/2013/07/officials_urge_residents_to_st.htmlSee ->
www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/07/15/blistering-heatwave-to-bake-american-northeast-for-rest-of-the-week/See->
www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/from-hot-to-col/16195593See ->
sacramento.cbslocal.com/2013/06/29/blistering-temperatures-continue-into-workweek/See ->
www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=149881In Europe ->
www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?ARCHIV=0&LANG=en&MENU=Extra&FILE=extra_ne.tit&DAY=20130724And here again ->
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/britain-sees-hottest-august-temperatures-for-ten-years-as-heatwave-returns--but-just-for-a-day-8741465.htmlSo, I fail to see how that forecast was 'wrong."
And we still have heat waves taking place in August. Moreover, I am forecasting an early fall season to come, with cooler-than-normal temperatures, but fall 2013 will be the driest season in 2013 for many regions, leading into a very wet and snowy winter of 2014 that I am forecasting.
Moreover, the drought of 2012 that has spread into 2013, along with the variable conditions of driving rains, saturated soils after the late planting season has led to this in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota:
See ->
www.agweb.com/article/just_how_bad_is_it_an_aerial_view_of_crops_in_iowa_and_minnesota/And, despite those who would say that the drought that continues is not so, the Drought I forecasted for 2012 still continues. It has spread primarily west, as forecasted.
Now, the FACTS on Drought:
You said that, "There is no "continuing drought". There just isn't. Every year there will states or regions drier than others; it's been that way forever. In order for it to be continuing would mean it is similar to last year and continue."
I would like to correct you, because what you stated is in error.
This surely IS a continuing drought and it does not mean that it has to be 'similar to last year' either. This is a multi-year drought Magellan. Try to also understand that most people also don't know how to see and use the graphics you posted. But make no mistake about it, this is a continuing drought - and it has serious impacts too.
For instance, though it has rained in north-central Iowa, but that did not mean that the drought is gone. Though your version of time is different from mine, as I forecast long-range.
This means that you must be patient, but keen on the climate conditions forecasted. For instance, I kept saying that the drought conditions would persist and they have.
Consider this report from north-central Iowa, which proves my point about the drought.
"Much of the western half of Iowa hasn’t seen a half-inch of rain in any given day in a month, and in many locations 45 days.
“The precipitation gains made this spring to practically eliminate the drought condition in the state are being lost thanks to a dry June and July,’’ said Iowa State University agronomists in a chart posted July 26, 2013 labeled "Drought Creeps Back."
See ->
www.iowafarmertoday.com/news/drought-concerns-return-to-iowa-nebraska/article_84559e08-fae1-11e2-85c3-0019bb2963f4.htmlOn the Drought:There will need to be multiple rounds of heavy rain - time and time again - for drought, extending over a period of months to overturn the terrible conditions that drought brings to regions. Texas and parts of Oklahoma suffer from an historic drought. Other regions include New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida and Georgia.
It is pure fiction that a few days of heavy rain can end a drought. That fact is that takes a long time for a drought to develop and so a long time for a drought to end.
An overall rainfall deficit and low water tables will not be eliminated by one or two rainfalls. However, heavy rains, while not able to end a drought, does help ease its effects on agriculture.
That's what we have here in 2013.
I don't expect some to understand the complexities of long-range astronomic forecasting, since many people are simply too short-sighted and do a lot of nowcasting, saying that this is 'wrong' while not seeing at all the medium and long-range forecasts for the gems that they contain. Often it is they whom are 'wrong' simply by not paying attention to what is actually happening in the real world which was forecasted - in advance.
Without long-range forecasting, you doom yourself to the ravages of climate and weather, because you place yourself in the dire position of never being prepared. The reason why perhaps you are 'suspicious' of long-range forecasting is because you don't know much about it, but long-range forecasting has been around for many centuries. So the onus is on you to educate yourself.
It behoves those who cannot, to begin to learn how to extend their views and open their minds; since it will be essential in understanding the coming global cooling climate regime that I've forecasted to officially begin in late 2017.
Now, a drought like the current one will simply NOT go away in one-fell swoop Magellan. That's the problem with the graphics you posted. They are deceiving, but make no mistake about this - the drought is not over, not by a long shot.
It takes months for a drought to get to the level where it is now, and it will take months AND even years to return to normal.
My calculations have this particular drought - a multi-year one - extending into the year 2016, so it is far from over Magellan.
One of the major problems with those who are non-forecasters of climate and weather have is that they do not understand what causes climate and weather. This is the reason for their errors in climate & weather conditions interpretation, and overall view of what is happening in the real world.
What we have here, especially in the corn belt that has been spreading westward across the U.S. - is a multi-year drought. It will stick around, and is spreading westward, as forecasted. The drought and effects from it continues to inflict pain on the major corn state of Iowa.
This is the drought I forecasted to arrive in 2012, that essentially began to ravage the Corn Belt last year. It continues. A multi-year drought just does not turn itself off like a light. Moreover, for those on this board who do not understand drought, it is important to understand why soil quality and water tables are so critical for crops and why persistent drought is very dangerous.
And this drought, as I've forecasted, has indeed spread itself west.
East of the Mississippi remains essentially drought free, but drought conditions remain entrenched in the southern Plains where 66.3 percent of region are in a moderate to exceptional drought. That is unchanged from just a week ago at 67 percent.
As of August 1, 2013, according to the National Drought Monitor,
"57.23% of the contiguous U.S. is covered by some form of drought, which reflects improvement of around one-percentage point from last week. While areas of the Plains and South experienced slight drought improvement, drought expanded across the Corn Belt.
In Iowa, for instance, and this is the Corn Belt, nearly 63 percent of the state was rated abnormally dry, compared to less than 20 percent last week."
Now, I don't know how others understand the effects of drought, but as a forecaster, I am quite clear on it and the drought continues. That's a fact.
For July 21, 2013, according the U.S. Department of Agriculture,
"64 percent of the topsoil was rated short or very short of moisture in Arkansas with 24 percent of the pasture and rangeland in poor or very poor condition. Missouri had 60 percent of the topsoil short or very short of moisture and Iowa had 57 percent so rated, which was a jump of 22 percent since last week," the report said.
Secondly, the Agriculture Report added,
"This is the time of year when the most pressing questions revolve around weather and yields. This year is no exception.
The spell of dry weather and blistering heat, especially in the western Corn Belt, is forecast to come to an end. The problem for the market is that much of this rain/pattern change will come over the weekend. Traders probably are not happy with this timing, but they have dealt with this situation a few times this spring and summer. Actual rainfall totals and the forecast could make for interesting trading on Sunday night.
The market continues to realize corn crop size may not be as much of an issue as bean crop size.
Last year’s very small corn crop limited demand and forced end users to find substitutes or other sources of corn. So, for example, other countries have sold corn at cheaper prices to Japan and other formerly staunch U.S. customers. It will be hard to get these customers back.
Lower demand means a sizable corn crop will have plenty to slosh over to the carryout line on the supply/demand tables. The market perceives that, in the summer of 2014, carry-outs in the 600 to 700 million-bushel range will be a thing of the past.
For the beans, the market understands the situation could be different. Right now, the USDA is using a robust 44.5-bushel yield. Put that down 2 bushels at 42.5, and things get interesting. Given the USDA’s robust demand, carryout could end up looking similar to this year.
Considering the importance of August weather for soybeans, it is hard for the market to get a handle on yields. This keeps the new-crop soybean price in much more of a sideways trend until there is more information on weather and yields."And again, in July 2013, it was reported out of Illinois News & Gazette that,
"Across the Corn Belt, hot, dry weather favors a rapid crop development pace. Wednesday’s high temperatures will range from 90 to 95°—accompanied by humid conditions—across the majority of the Midwest, prompting the issuance of Heat Advisories. In the southwestern Corn Belt—including parts of Iowa, Missouri, and southeastern Nebraska—short-term dryness and hot conditions are increasing stress on reproductive summer crops.
On the Plains, drought-easing rain is heaviest across western Texas, where flash flooding remains a concern. Rangeland, pastures, and summer crops—including cotton—are benefiting from the southern Plains’ rain. Meanwhile, dry weather favors fieldwork and crop development on the northern Plains.
In the South, showers are returning to parts of the well-watered southern Atlantic States, with the heaviest rain occurring across southern Florida. Meanwhile, short-term dryness continues to expand and intensify across the Mid-South. On July 14, USDA rated topsoil moisture 68% very short-to-short in Arkansas. Dryness has also been a concern in the western Gulf Coast region, but showers are currently providing local relief.
In the West, drought-easing showers continue across the southern tier of the region. However, flash flooding remains a threat in southern New Mexico. Elsewhere, a few showers have broken out across the Northwest.
Looking ahead, the Northeast’s first significant heat wave of the year will continue through Saturday, with relief expected thereafter. Cooler air will also overspread the Midwest during the weekend. However, strong thunderstorms will precede and accompany the transition to cooler weather across the Great Lakes and Northeastern States from July 18-20.
Meanwhile, a disturbance will continue to drift westward across the Southwest, generating heavy showers. Additional rainfall could reach at least 1 to 2 inches in western Texas and the Four Corners States.
Elsewhere, mostly dry weather will prevail from the Pacific Coast to the northern Rockies, while little or no rain will fall across the central Plains and southwestern Corn Belt. In the Northwest, building heat will accompany mostly dry weather.
The 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures and rainfall across the majority of the U.S. Cooler-than-normal conditions will be limited to southern Florida, the Rio Grande Valley, and the Northeast, while drier-than-normal weather will be confined to the High Plains and the Northwest."And there is no 'record crop' this year Magellan, as Agriculture.com reports that,
"With less than a month left in the 2012-13 marketing year, U.S. corn exports are expected to reach only 700 million bushels, 843 million less than exported last year - and 550 million less than the USDA forecast in September 2012."
The thing about 2013's climate, as forecasted, was that you had a bit of everything in diverse regions, including the continuation of the 2012 Drought, which continues, and has also spread west. The cold, wet spring delayed planting as the rain made it difficult in the spring when farmers were trying to get the crops in.
Now, in early August, you will find that some farmers in Tennessee Valley could not ask for the crops to look any better. Coming off a bad year in 2012, especially for corn, they are seeing improvement. For them, the amount of rain has been good, and the cooler weather has helped their crops mature at a favorable rate. They are not maturing prematurely.
But in other regions, like in Alabama for instance, fewer farmers in the northwestern part of that state grow cotton, and have had to deal with what they said was the coolest and wettest year in more than 30 years.
Overall, climate & weather reports showed this, according to Corn & Soybean Digest, as of July 30,2013:
Crop conditions across the Midwest were quite variable in late July, depending on planting date, as well as impacts from heavy rainfalls in June and the recent dry weather conditions in late July.
Overall, across the southwestern and the western portions of south-central Minnesota, a large percentage of corn and soybeans are in fair to good condition; however, excessive rainfall, along with very dry weather recently, in some locations could reduce 2013 yield potential.
Crop conditions in the balance of Southern Minnesota and adjoining areas of Northern Iowa are much less favorable, due to the significant amount of late and prevented planting in 2013."Going into autumn 2013, my forecast is for an early fall with cooler-than normal temperatures, especially along northern regions of North America. It will be a great fall, with brilliant colors of leaves on flush trees east of the Mississippi. And, it will be mainly sunny and dry, which will help with harvest yields, but it will not a 'record year' Magellan, far from it.
One problem is that hundreds of thousands of acres of soybeans were planted in the Upper Midwest over in mid-to-late June 2013. What I have in my calculations is that the cool temperatures on tap means that any late-planted soybeans are endangered by the first killing frosts, which are on the way.
So, when you look at North America, you simply can't make a blanket statement as 'record crops' and be serious, since some crops have done well while others have not. We have had drought continued and spread west, there have been heavy rains and flooding as forecasted, there has been high heat and also cooler temperatures across the spectrum. In short, a very variable year of weather, as forecasted.
Because of the cold, wet spring in some regions, which led to the lateness of 2013's planting season, the reported prevented planted acreage is likely to be large, as some planted acreage were lost to flooding for instance. I warned about this all through spring.
As a result, actual planted and harvested acreage of both corn and soybeans are likely to be less than the June 2013 USDA estimates.
Going into August 2013, some may notice a slight chill in the air. That's the cooler-than-normal temperatures of fall coming. In August, the cooler temperatures should be enough to maintain crop conditions, but those chilly temperatures that persist in August, and especially in September, will become a concern.
It will get cooler-than-normal this fall season, but sunny and dry enough to harvest. However, farmers will have to be keen to harvest as much as they can before the first frosts set in early this fall, and these frosts will arrive earlier than normal this year. That's my forecast. I will publish more on autumn soon, as well as on the coming winter of 2014.
So, we have a very variable year of climate in 2013, which is what was forecasted. Along with the continuing drought that I said would also spread west, which, the facts prove, is correct ->
See ->
www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=dry-area-expands-in-western-us-corn