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Post by pilgrim on Feb 2, 2013 15:06:05 GMT
Theodore: The ethanol mandate is not going to change anytime soon. It is used as an oxygen additive now. I grew corn in ND in 1977 and onward. One of the main reasons I grew corn was for the tanic acid of the roots. It helps reduce verticilium levels of wilt. More farmers in ND are now producing corn to break rotations and also because of profits. Thanks for posting. IMHO, if what Theodore has predicted does come about, the oil companies will seize the opportunity to get the RFS eliminated.
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Post by neilhamp on Feb 2, 2013 16:49:28 GMT
Astromet, I have asked you this before but NASA have just re-issued their solar cycle forcast. solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtmlAre you still standing by your earlier forcast for cycle 24 when you stated? "The Sun is ramping up to its maximum through 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, with a bit of leveling off in 2016 and 2017 and then more so in 2018, 2019, 2020, to begin a new grand minimum phase. "The NASA forcast is talking about a smothed maximum of 69 in the fall of 2013 and then a downward trend through to 2020. They also say it will be the lowest sun spot maximum since 1906
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 2, 2013 16:57:04 GMT
nautonnier: The 4 corners drought that you mention in the USA has been studied.
There is clear indication of magnetic harmonics/solar influence in this drought.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 2, 2013 18:54:15 GMT
Astromet, I have asked you this before but NASA have just re-issued their solar cycle forcast. solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtmlAre you still standing by your earlier forcast for cycle 24 when you stated? "The Sun is ramping up to its maximum through 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, with a bit of leveling off in 2016 and 2017 and then more so in 2018, 2019, 2020, to begin a new grand minimum phase. "The NASA forcast is talking about a smothed maximum of 69 in the fall of 2013 and then a downward trend through to 2020. They also say it will be the lowest sun spot maximum since 1906 Leif Svalgaard will be pleased with that he forecast a smoothed peak of 70 some time ago. I do think that 'ramping up' is rather excitable terminology though it is more like faltering along at around the same level for a few more years. The longer it goes the cooler things are likely to be as long cycles are thought to lead to colder times. It also means that we could have both the end of SC24 and Livingstone and Penn's loss of sunspots concurrently. Now would that be a coincidence? Or is there perhaps a pattern that we are unaware of? The interesting things to check will be the levels of the different frequencies within the TSI. Continued lowered levels of short wave and UV/EUV radiation would lead to cooling oceans and reduced convection in the Hadley cells. That tends to lead to more meridonal jetstreams that tend to block in the northern hemisphere leading to continued droughts in some areas and floods in others. Looks like that puts us back onto the subject of the thread too
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 2, 2013 20:12:20 GMT
Astromet, I have asked you this before but NASA have just re-issued their solar cycle forcast. solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtmlAre you still standing by your earlier forcast for cycle 24 when you stated? "The Sun is ramping up to its maximum through 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, with a bit of leveling off in 2016 and 2017 and then more so in 2018, 2019, 2020, to begin a new grand minimum phase. "The NASA forecast is talking about a smothed maximum of 69 in the fall of 2013 and then a downward trend through to 2020. They also say it will be the lowest sun spot maximum since 1906 Hi Neil, I've got the Sun continuing its sunspot activity in solar cycle 24 through to 2016-17, with the onset of global cooling officially beginning in 2017, but with clear signs of its arrival, say during the anomalous winter/spring of 2014, as astronomic transits confirm to me. But again, for years now, I have been forecasting that a global cooling climate is on it's way and have known for a long time that what we are seeing in this solar cycle will be its maximum in these waning years of global warming before entering a deep minimum in solar cycle 25. We are entering a global cooling climate regime with wetter and colder temperatures and it is caused (like global warming) by the activity of the Sun. As for NASA, well they still have no way of knowing when solar cycle 24 will peak; however solar peaks are easier to predict later during any upswing seen in a cycle - especially as it gets going. Most experts said that this cycle would have most likely peaked this spring. But now many are moving their predictions further ahead to autumn 2013 and with lower numbers. We'll see. We did see a span of higher solar activity in November/December 2011. In my solar analysis we will see improvements in HF conditions this spring and certainly by fall. Back in September through December 2011, monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers were 106.4, 123.6, 133.1 and 106.4. Prior to that, May-August 2011 there were solar averages of 61.5, 55.5, 67.2 and 66. At the end of 2011 we saw a dramatic rise in sunspot activity. Average daily sunspot number for 2012 was 82.3, but the average for all of the year 2011 was 29.9. So obviously there is a rise in solar activity. For January 2013 the average was a little less than 100. As for the coming spring & summer for the northern hemisphere, it will get much warmer than normal with another dry year and with blistering heatwaves. Of course, all the 'man-made climate changers' will use that to scream their heads off in union about CO2, but it's not that. It's the Sun. We are in the waning years of solar-forced global warming and are in transition to global cooling. That is the new climate regime coming and everyone needs to prepare for it because global cooling is far worse than global warming could ever be.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 2, 2013 20:14:13 GMT
Astromet, I have asked you this before but NASA have just re-issued their solar cycle forcast. solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtmlAre you still standing by your earlier forcast for cycle 24 when you stated? "The Sun is ramping up to its maximum through 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, with a bit of leveling off in 2016 and 2017 and then more so in 2018, 2019, 2020, to begin a new grand minimum phase. "The NASA forcast is talking about a smothed maximum of 69 in the fall of 2013 and then a downward trend through to 2020. They also say it will be the lowest sun spot maximum since 1906 Leif Svalgaard will be pleased with that he forecast a smoothed peak of 70 some time ago. I do think that 'ramping up' is rather excitable terminology though it is more like faltering along at around the same level for a few more years. The longer it goes the cooler things are likely to be as long cycles are thought to lead to colder times. It also means that we could have both the end of SC24 and Livingstone and Penn's loss of sunspots concurrently. Now would that be a coincidence? Or is there perhaps a pattern that we are unaware of? The interesting things to check will be the levels of the different frequencies within the TSI. Continued lowered levels of short wave and UV/EUV radiation would lead to cooling oceans and reduced convection in the Hadley cells. That tends to lead to more meridonal jetstreams that tend to block in the northern hemisphere leading to continued droughts in some areas and floods in others. Looks like that puts us back onto the subject of the thread too Nice post Nautonnier and I agree. Would like to discuss this with you here, the TSI especially and my longer-range forecast for the onset of global cooling.
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Post by neilhamp on Feb 2, 2013 20:39:59 GMT
Thanks for the response Astromet. You keep mentioning these dry conditions for 2013 in USA. Have you any opinion regarding the UK. I am planning my golden wedding anniversary for 13th.July. We are committed to a marquee in the garden.
Now that really would be impressive if you could promise me a sunny day for Chester, England!
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 3, 2013 0:17:55 GMT
Nautonnier excellent information. Wow very interesting. To my non professional and humble undergraduate degree solar forced warming does not explain temperature peaks these past few years? SC24 has not shown any extremes versus SC23 and during the peak of SC23 around 2001 we did not have the similar temps we have today. After the peak of sunspot activity in SC23 there was a steady drop to the end of SC23 in 2009, yet during this time temperatures were were rising?? There are three aspects to consider: 1. Lags and OceansLags can mean that atmospheric temperatures can rise for a while after the input heat reduces as the atmosphere is being heated by the oceans that take a LONG time to cool. The top 3 or 4 meters of ocean hold as much energy as the entire atmosphere. Just like cooking with a microwave you leave the food to stand for a minute and it carries on cooking. 2. Atmospheric Temperature TrendAtmospheric temperatures globally have not risen since around 1998 - 2000. This is using the various reporting groups like GISS and HADCRUT. Even the UK Met Office has had to admit there is no statistically significant warming. If you look at some areas you will find that the warming is only there due to 'corrections' and 'homogenizations' made by NASA, NCDC, CRU etc. many of which are arguable. Going back a few decades and changing the reported temperatures for example, or altering the methods used to homogenize... and strangely these alterations and homogenizations are always in the sense that makes today's temperature warmer. An infamous 'correction' was Darwin Airport wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero/3. Atmospheric Temperature is Wrong MetricYou will note that I have tried to be careful and say 'Atmospheric Temperature' this is important. Global ' warming' means what precisely? As a QA and Test engineer I find the continual ambiguous use of terms by climate 'scientists' reprehensible. I believe the use and misuse of ambiguous terms has allowed claims that are not true and led to some mathematical howlers that are just not understood. Global 'warming' is being measured by quoting atmospheric temperature. But the hypothesis that is being put forward is that infra red energy radiating from the surface is 'trapped' by CO 2 - and they measure the amount of heat energy trapped by looking at the atmospheric temperature. An air conditioning maintenance man will tell you that is rubbish. But all the politicians, media and climatologists are happy with it and average temperatures to come up with a global average temperature. The problem with this is that in the atmosphere temperature is NOT a measure of heat energy because the atmosphere can hold a varying amount of heat dependent on the atmospheric humidity. Humid air can hold considerably more energy than dry air. So for example a Louisiana bayou just after an afternoon thundershower misty close to 100% humidity and 75F will hold twice as much heat energy as an the air over an Arizona desert with almost zero humidity and at 100F. Atmospheric temperature is an intensive metric it is incorrect to average it. After all what is really needed is to identify how much ENERGY is trapped. But nobody is reporting that to the media. There are reports that global humidity levels are lower this in itself would account for much of the so called 'warming' atmospheric temperature rise. The place to measure the 'warming' of course is the oceans where this problem does not arise. And of course NOAA at vast expense has put out a massive number of floats and buoys all sinking and rising and reporting the temperatures at levels from 2000 meters to the surface. You will not have seen a lot of noise about those metrics from NOAA or NASA. This is because the Argo float systems are showing that the ocean temperatures are NOT rising if anything they may be falling. Infra red radiation penetrates about 3 - 4 MICRONS at most about a molecules depth or so into water - it may excite a molecule enough for it to evaporate but as that takes the latent heat of evaporation from the surface - infra-red radiation onto the sea surface may even cool the sea surface. However, the sea surface temperatures react relatively quickly to short wavelength radiation from the Sun which penetrates deeply many tens of meters into the ocean. See "Using the Oceans as a Calorimeter to Quantify the Solar Radiative Forcing" by Nir Shaviv www.sciencebits.com/files/articles/CalorimeterFinal.pdf It appears that the Sun is not emitting as much UV/EUV as 'normal' the oceans are not being warmed as they were in the late 20th Century, this is like turning down the heat under a boiling pot it will take time to cool and with slow moving ocean currents some areas may be kept warm for a few years. But as the source of the warmth is not there the 'warming' current may have less and less a warming effect. So if the Sun remains in the current state where it appears to be emitting much lower levels of UV/EUV we may find sudden colder regimes appearing. As the Earth cools the humidity reduces the enthalpy of the air reduces and it takes less energy to raise the atmospheric temperatures - this effect will mask the drop in energy. Should the Sun go into a Maunder minimum we will soon notice the drop in solar energy and despite the low humidity even the atmospheric temperatures will drop.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 3, 2013 2:24:27 GMT
One thing in all of this that doesn't make sense is that the RH of the air has not increased, even with the warmer dry bulb temperature increase.
According to climate science, we should be wetter.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 3, 2013 5:39:57 GMT
One thing in all of this that doesn't make sense is that the RH of the air has not increased, even with the warmer dry bulb temperature increase. According to climate science, we should be wetter. Actually, we are wetter, look to other regions worldwide. And there has been flooding. We are also in drought in other regions, like the Midwestern U.S. There's been heavy rains & flooding in the United Kingdom and more snow as well. See, -> www.express.co.uk/posts/view/374290/Flood-peril-as-a-month-s-rain-sweeps-inI've said for a long time now that both drought and flood can, and do, co-exist in the same climate phase. Going into February and March, expect heavy rains and flash flooding as well here in the states. Also there are some thick and dense fogs just on the horizon over the next 2.5 months too, time to get those fog-lights in working order and be careful on the roads out there. The rains will help in drought-afflicted areas, but mind the flooding because of the dry condition of the soil. It would be smart to get some dry irrigating ditch work done now to use that rainwater best as possible. Every little bit can help. But mind these heavy rains going into early planting season. It will delay planting for some crops out there, including corn. The North Dakota State University said this on soil saturation from heavy rains & potential floods - "Prolonged soil saturation affects crop growth and yield. Corn is very sensitive to flooding in the early vegetative stages; especially prior to the fifth or sixth leaf stage.
In early growth stages, corn or soybeans can survive for only two to four days under water in anaerobic conditions.
Moderate water movement can reduce flood damage by allowing some oxygen to get to the plants, keeping them respiring and alive.
Drainage within one to two days increases the chance of survival.
The injury extent to seedlings is determined by the plant stage of development at ponding/duration of flooding and the air/soil temperatures as well as if axillary buds are present on damaged plants.
If temperatures are warm during flooding (greater than 77 F) plants may not survive 24 hours.
Cool temperatures may prolong survival. However, cold, wet weather favors disease development. Seed treatments are effective, but limited in protection.
Seedling development slowed or delayed two to three weeks allow soil-borne pathogens a greater opportunity to cause damage. Seed rots, seedling blight, corn smut and crazy top affect corn plant development later even though ponding occurred earlier.
Delayed soybean growth allows diseases such as Fusarium root rot, Phytophthora rot and Pythium rot to establish and weaken or destroy seedlings. Carefully assess damage before deciding to replant or before tearing up the existing stand.
Rotted seed or damped-off seedlings will reveal probable crop losses.
Evaluate intended stand to the damaged stand, the uniformity of the stand, the original planting date versus a replant date, likely replant pest control and seed costs as well as projected crop prices.
Weigh these costs and price projections against replanting yield gains to evaluate crop injury and replanting gains.
On surviving stands, remember that favorable weather for plants after ponding is important.
Cultivation, once soils are dry enough, will open and aerate surface soil and promote root growth. Be careful working the soil.
Working wet soil causes compaction that varies crop growth.
An additional nitrogen application in corn may be necessary in fields that show signs of yellowing or uneven growth. A late test for nitrate when corn plants are still six to twelve inches tall can determine if more nitrogen is needed.
Maintain a good weed control program so that crop plants are not robbed of nutrients and moisture later in the season."FLOODING ON WHEAT AND BARLEY"What impact recent heavy flooding is having on crops?
The first major impact of soil completely covered with water is a rapid depletion of oxygen required for plant growth and development.
The other major impact of flooding is change in nutrient status either by leaching or changing their availability to the plant. The response to flooding will vary with duration, and temperature.
Obviously the longer the duration of the flooding the greater the injury. The injury results from plants inability to grow in an anaerobic environment.
While specific information on how long small grains can survive under water has not been widely reported, most indications are that wheat can withstand water logged soils for up to 24 hours with out excessive damage, barley is less that this.
Depending on the conditions wheat can probably survive saturated conditions for up to two days.
Conditions that influence this are temperature and stage of growth. Under cool conditions metabolic activity is less than at warm temperatures and the demand for oxygen is less.
A younger crop has a smaller demand for oxygen and may be able to survive better. Even so, a small grain crop that is submerged in water for two days, or longer, has little chance for survival.
When a small grain crop does survive flooding, recovery maybe very slow and yield will be dramatically impacted."EFFECTS OF FLOODING ON CORNThe 2011 flood in North Dakota promoted inquiries of flooding and ponding in corn and its effects. The extent to which flooding injures corn is determined by several factors including plant stage of development when flooding occurs, the duration of flooding, and air/soil temperatures. Prior to the 6-leaf stage (when the growing point is near or at the soil surface), corn can survive only 2-4 days of flooded conditions. Once corn has reached the silking stage shallow depths of flooding will not cause any noticeable amounts of damage. If temperatures are warm during flooding (greater than 77 degrees F) plants may not survive 24 hours. Cooler temperatures prolong survival. Iowa studies found that flooding when corn is about 6-inches in height for 72, 48, and 24 hours reduced corn yields by 32, 22, and 18%, respectively, at a low N fertilizer level (50 lb N per acre). At a high level of N (350 lb N per acre) these yield reductions ranged from 19 to 14% in one year to less than 5% the following year. Research indicates that the oxygen concentration approaches zero after 24-hours in a flooded soil. Without oxygen, the plant cannot perform critical life sustaining functions, such as nutrient and water uptake is impaired, root growth is inhibited, etc. Even if flooding doesn't kill plants outright it may have a long term negative impact on crop performance. If excess moisture in the early vegetative stages retards root development, plants may be subject to greater injury during a dry summer because root systems are not sufficiently developed to access available subsoil water. If flooding in corn is less than 48 hours, crop injury should be limited. To confirm plant survival, check the color of the growing point (it should be white and cream colored, while a darkening or softening usually precedes plant death) and look for new leaf growth 3 to 5 days after water drains from the field. Cold, wet weather conditions also favor development of seed rots and seedling blights. Seed treatments are usually effective, but can provide protection only so long; if seedling development is slowed or delayed 2-3 weeks, soil-borne pathogens have a much greater opportunity to cause damage. Other disease problems which may become greater risks due to flooding and cool temperatures are corn smut and crazy top. The fungus that causes crazy top depends on saturated soil conditions to infect corn seedlings. There is limited hybrid resistance to these diseases and predicting damage is difficult because disease symptoms do not appear until later in the growing season.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 3, 2013 21:30:23 GMT
codewhacker: From most appearances, it has already started.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 3, 2013 21:36:08 GMT
Nautonnier Thanks, Ok, so I think you said don't trust air temps alone and don't rely on ocean temps alone. I know the PNW is forecast to be cooler than normal for the next 3 months and that's a bummer for berry farmers and for hay growers too. You sure can taste the difference in milk quality from cows regularly out in pasture versus those stuck on a diet of grain. Last thing: you said "Should the Sun go into a Maunder minimum we will soon notice the drop in solar energy." How long before we would recognize that event? Well - I would go with Theodore on his timescales on that it will be obvious something is going awry in 5 years but the minimum then the change to SC25 will be the clincher - if we have another long quiescent period between SC24 and SC25 with no solar activity then that matches in with the Livingstone and Penn slow drop of sun spot contrast. Effectively, they are saying the sun spots are there but so weak that they are not showing in normal visible spectrum. As in the Maunder minimum there will be other signs that the normal solar cycle is continuing like the F10.7 radio flux and the Ap index, but the normal spot watchers and counters will find very little to see. Look at the sun now on the home page - its in the middle of the cycle - not an exactly overwhelming number of spots. So a quiescent minimum of say another 5 years takes us to 2023 and it will become obvious which way things are going.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 3, 2013 21:36:20 GMT
Arlan Suderman retweeted Chip Flory Chip Flory @chipflory Most interesting prediction I heard in Chicago- Allen Motew, QT Wx: Some Midwest rain this spring, but hot and dry July-Aug. to stress crops
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Post by strongminded on Feb 4, 2013 15:06:15 GMT
I have long been a proponent of feed the soil and the crop will take careof itself. I live surrounded by farmers who, for the most part, rotate crops regularly with a series of corn, beans, beans, corn and every five years or so wheat. Given that there are many horse folks in our area the straw is almost a better cash crop than the wheat...especially at 8.00 a bale.
Our crops in 2012 were late but good. However, as we have been watching, the draught area is working its way to the east and central Ohio may have more challenges this year. Several of our local farmers are hedging their bets with putting off new equipment purchases and new buildings, doing with what they have. Our dairies are going to start hurting as the cost of fuel, grain and power continue to climb.
Personally I will mulch the heck out of the garden again this year. We mulch with horse manure...not only feeds the soil but keeps moisture in as well. The garden is becoming more and more important as food prices increase. I experience sticker shock with every trip to the market. I am confident that my family will be well fed but as I tour the store I am fearful that many families will not be as fortunate as we are. Canning and freezing in my house have gone from being a hobby of sorts to being a necessity.
I frequently think about my fellow Americans and the life that we HAD. Most of us are going to have to get used to a new normal. And that new normal will be more like the lives our grandparents experienced. Reduce, Reuse, Recycle will have a whole different meaning. The temperature in your house will be set lower, your food budget will increase, your fuel budget will increase, in some areas your water usage will be curtailled, you may see more and more multigeneraltional households.
Theo has commented several times about the lack of thinking people. We have been sold a bills of goods over and over in this country. It is frightening given the information age we live in that people actually beleive what can easily be disproved with a few clicks of a keyboard. I had the priviledge of teaching adults at the college level for over a decade and trying to get them to question anything they had heard on the news was like pulling teeth...however after a semester in my class a few of them began to get it. I preached about food diversity, about the scam of global warming, the bias of television news, the greed of politicians, and the gambit of hokam being passed off as truth. It is not that these folks were stupid it is that we have forgotten to teach our children to question, investigate, and think critically. My point being that even if you do not agree with Theo, his methodolgy, his on line persona...he makes you think, inquire, and investigate. I feel the same about sigudur and nautineer. Thanks for being here and for stretching my mind. I appreciate your work, value your opinions and look forward to your posts.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 5, 2013 0:34:53 GMT
strongminded: People have forgotten how to help themselves. An 8x8 garden in a basement, or in a room, will provide a great deal of vegetables. And the cost per serving is way less than if purchased.
Put a set of grow lights on that 8x8 sheet, take care of it, and you can eat fresh lettuce, carrots, peppers....lots of peppers till summer time.
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