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Post by sigurdur on Feb 9, 2013 1:04:00 GMT
nautonnier:
I have already adjusted my thinking to reflect Modoki.
In doing so, I used the "way back" machine to find out what weather was like around me during the time of the last cooling phase.
It is hard to determine the actual conditions of the Pacific.
I have also included a more negative bias as SC 24 is not much of a producer. I know that this will affect the jets, which affect the Rosby's etc...etc.
All I can get are hints of the potential.
I do know that the eastern corn belt has healed as far as moisture.
Western corn belt....nope.
I also know that my little area of variable weather, and it is one of those really variable areas, has an excellent snow pack.
We had rains here last fall that started the re-charge of moisture. We have moisture equivalent of approx 2" of snow pack. Part of this will evaporate of course, but the forecast is for more to come.
I agree with Theodore that the southern plains will remain dry and warm. In my area tho, looks like a cool bias to summer with adequate precipitation.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 9, 2013 1:04:41 GMT
As far as the idiots who are certain based on their models.....all I can say is I feel sorry for them.
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Post by strongminded on Feb 10, 2013 13:33:23 GMT
As we have bee on the topic of food supply on this thread for a few weeks I received a post that some of you may find interesting. It takes awhile to get through the whole thing but I thought it interesting. The title is "Genetic Roulette" www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnlTYFKBg18
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Post by strongminded on Feb 10, 2013 13:59:05 GMT
Sig:
So the term "Modoki" is new to me and having read your post I had to read a couple of articles to attempt to understand your concerns. The difference seems to be more of a convection type type system. As these events occur do you invision this event pushing moisture farther into the interior of the US or having greater impact in South America? If you could point me in the direction of how these Modoki events effect the jet streams globally I would appreciate learning more.
Thanks!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2013 17:42:35 GMT
Sig: So the term "Modoki" is new to me and having read your post I had to read a couple of articles to attempt to understand your concerns. The difference seems to be more of a convection type type system. As these events occur do you invision this event pushing moisture farther into the interior of the US or having greater impact in South America? If you could point me in the direction of how these Modoki events effect the jet streams globally I would appreciate learning more. Thanks! Strongminded: It is hard to analyze South America. During the last cooling phase, it was not widely developed, and information is scant. As far as the USA. The weather pattern, at present, bears a lot of resemblance to the 1950's. I just did a search of US weather in the 1950's, and it seems that Dr. Curry also has noticed this. judithcurry.com/2011/09/05/weather-weirding-back-to-the-1950s/I would let her expertise overshadow mine anytime. I try and figure things out for my little neck of the woods as a layman. She has a PhD in this stuff and is not scared to call and ace an ace etc.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2013 18:10:37 GMT
Nautonnier:
Want to help explain Rosby waves etc?
You are better at explaining things clearly than I am.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2013 18:38:48 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2013 19:45:28 GMT
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Feb 10, 2013 20:39:27 GMT
It is not only the US that suffered extreme (relatively) weather in the 1950's. This is what happened in the east of England (the coast of my area) as well as Scotland, Holland and Belgium: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953And there were no suggestions that it was caused by AGW! If this was to happen now, mankind would be blamed.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2013 20:51:09 GMT
zaphod:
The ability to find a AGW signal amidst all the noise in climate is extremely difficult.
For anyone to say they can do it with a high degree of certainty is like the folks who were selling Cure All juice in the 18th,19th, and 20th century.
If it didn't cure ya, it would kill ya.
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Post by strongminded on Feb 12, 2013 0:39:14 GMT
Sig:
I am familiar with Rossby waves and Hadley waves, both of which are standard. I did check the links you provided. Thanks! Like the moisture "satmap." Do wonder if that vetch changes during the year. My experience says that most of our precip actually does come from the Gulf. The moisture is usually brought this direction from low level lows that track up the Mississippi River Valley, across southern Illinois through mid Indiana then frequently join with a low coming out of Chicago and point north and west and whammo we get precip. Rarely do we experience precip from a straight western vetch. Just my observation.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2013 1:52:59 GMT
strongminded: The VETCH is pretty stable as to where the moisture comes from. The surface lows will "catch" that moisture feed.
Once in awhile, hurricane, moisture will feed from the Gulf of Mexico. But it is actually pretty rare.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2013 1:53:49 GMT
Strongminded: I am trying to remember the area that you live in. Ohio?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2013 3:26:03 GMT
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Post by karlox on Feb 12, 2013 8:48:32 GMT
That´s what Sandy did, right? So pattern shown in past year is likely to last this year?
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