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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2013 18:47:26 GMT
karlox: Yep, at least for awhile.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 19, 2013 22:13:56 GMT
Sig: So the term "Modoki" is new to me and having read your post I had to read a couple of articles to attempt to understand your concerns. The difference seems to be more of a convection type type system. As these events occur do you invision this event pushing moisture farther into the interior of the US or having greater impact in South America? If you could point me in the direction of how these Modoki events effect the jet streams globally I would appreciate learning more. Thanks! Strongminded: It is hard to analyze South America. During the last cooling phase, it was not widely developed, and information is scant. As far as the USA. The weather pattern, at present, bears a lot of resemblance to the 1950's. I just did a search of US weather in the 1950's, and it seems that Dr. Curry also has noticed this. judithcurry.com/2011/09/05/weather-weirding-back-to-the-1950s/I would let her expertise overshadow mine anytime. I try and figure things out for my little neck of the woods as a layman. She has a PhD in this stuff and is not scared to call and ace an ace etc. The climate we are currently in does show analog to the 1950s, and the 1930s. It is really a mix of both, which were exceptionally dry for the American Midwest, but also wet in other regions with floods, so again, what I have been saying about the co-existence of both drought and flood in our world's climate is proven true. These are the astronomically-forced causes that are called natural variability. Those interested will notice that AMO and PDO reflect these kinds of weather patterns and extreme events that we see. And if you look you'll see that the world's average surface temperatures were warmer than the 1950′s. For instance, the climate regime of the 1930′s showed a warm AMO and a warm PDO. The extremes were extended periods of record heat waves and of course the Great Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The overtilling of the soil with the extreme drought, high wind and punishing heat lead to huge raging dry storms across the Midwest. Meanwhile, back in the decade of the 1930s you do see an active hurricane season in the North Atlantic. If you look at the decade of the 1950s, you'll see that between 1946 to 1964 that there was a generally warm AMO, but a cool PDO. So in the 1950′s there wasn't much heat waves to speak of; but there was a very serious drought in Texas in the 1950s. Also, there were floods in New England from passages of tropical storms and a rise in hurricanes and powerful tornadoes in the 1950s. There was the 'great flood' of the Kansas River in 1951 I think and the climate record shows that there were all kinds of flooding as well from the mid-1950s into the early 1960s.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 19, 2013 22:45:25 GMT
Theodore: The growing season of 2013 is going to be an interesting one. I don't know anything about astrometeorology.
What I do know how to do tho, is observe present conditions, and read previous conditions.
I think the cooling of the oceans is normal. There is a cycle to these, of which we are all aware.
Previous cycles, conditions etc are the drivers of weather, and over time the results is climate.
When talking with Dr. Lupo today, he said the Greenland high was like a cat on a bed of hot coals. Moving all over and moving very fast. This is not what has been considered "normal".
The Pacific has most deff switched to a negative PDO. The Atlantic is close to switching now as well, so this creates a double whammy in ref to Northern Hemisphere weather. Which, once again, becomes the climate.
Things are shaping up, as I see it, for a cool somewhat moist spring for the Northern Great Plains area.
It will be very important to watch the Arctic outbreaks. The winter wheat crop is vulnerable at this time. The little bit of moisture, with the warm temps is bringing it out of dorm. More moisture to come it appears. The Greenland high tho.....may draw cold air on an express south and result in frost damage. This has been more common the past few years than in a longggg time.
The stable weather/climate that we were lucky to have when there was a warming trend now appear to be a thing of the past. The warming stopped long ago, the question will be....how fast will it cool.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 19, 2013 22:48:11 GMT
As the sun continues to be less active, via sunspots, the UV energy changing etc.
That energy does not get to the oceans.....and the oceans need a constant supply of short wave energy to stay warm.
Interesting times ahead.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 20, 2013 2:50:33 GMT
We may see the AMO start to turn negative around the end of the decade. If it does we will have a negative PDO in concert with a negative AMO which we would expect to bring temps down to at least the same level we experienced during the 1970's. In addition this solar cycle and the next may turn out to be much quieter than at any other time in several generations. Maybe even quieter.
Not much is being said about it but in December and January the NH snow pack reached a record high as measured by satellite. Just months after the Arctic experienced a record low ice pack.
Certainly, qualifies as Topsy Turvy as Nautonnier has pointed out and yes interesting times ahead.
.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 20, 2013 3:23:33 GMT
glenn: I don't think the AMO will make it to the end of the decade before it turns negative.
Another item to watch. The brine flow/under sea waterfalls around Antarctica are the drivers of the ocean currents. With the huge increase in ice area around Antarctica, it will be interesting to see what effect that has in another decade or so.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 20, 2013 15:10:00 GMT
Sigurdur, I have heard 2017 thrown around a lot as the turning point for the AMO. The full effects will be a few years after that point if it does switch to it's negative phase by 2017.
The freshwater inflow from melting ice has long been predicted to have a profound effect on the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic as well. We now know that the flip from a warm to cold regime can be much more sudden then previously thought. Many have compared the current drought in our nations heartland with that of the 1930's or 1950's but I think the weather pattern experienced in Europe during the 1300's is probably a more accurate comparison for the NH.
Unsettled, topsy turvy weather during the 1300's marked the ending of the MWP and the beginning of the LIA. Talk is cheap, and one of the best predictors of future events is money. "Skin in the game" as you have as a farmer is the best filter of noise. With that being said I was listening to Bloomberg radio the other day and they had an expert meteorologist from Goldman Sachs on agricultural commodity trading. He came out and said that what we are experiencing is not global warming but global weirding.
Global Weirding. I think that is the best description of what we are experiencing now with our weather.
I will try and find a link to the interview with the guys name and or web or blog...
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 20, 2013 15:45:00 GMT
codewhacker: 1. It is obvious that CO2 is not a stabalizing greenhouse gas. Temperature flucuations in the past, while co2 was stable, show there is a wide range of variability. 2. Man can and does change his local environment. Regional variability exists. 3. Climate variability is normal. Fast change is actually normal, as shown in proxy data. 4. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It has to cause a certain amount of temperature increase, all by itself. When combined with other greenhouse gases, differences in waveband emissions, is it a strong forcing? Proxy data once again indicates it is not.
TOA measurements show a reduction of energy leaving in the CO2 band. They also show an increase in energy leaving in the other bands. This is a fact that is seldom brought to attention. Do the other bands of energy, at higher levels, overcome the reduction in the CO2 band? I really don't know.
Proxy data, once again, show that CO2 continues to increase at the ends of interglacials, while the temperature drops. There are orbital forces to consider, however, it is well documented that there have been FAST changes in temperature, both up and down, that no one knows why happened.
William, who used to frequent the board, had some interesting papers in regards to this.
In my humble opinion, I can't make a scientific opinion as to whether AGW is a strong force or not.
Ok.....wasn't too short was it?
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 20, 2013 17:27:55 GMT
codewhacker,
I don't doubt that we are warming and that man is having some effect. However, considering natural variability how anyone can with any degree of accuracy assign a number on just how much of the current warming is caused by our use of fossil fuels is beyond me. The forces that have always driven our climate still are and certainly can trump mans contribution.
I think the AMO switching to a colder phase in the coming years as well as a the current lull in solar activity will shed a lot of light on mans effect or lack there of.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 20, 2013 18:40:33 GMT
Theodore: The growing season of 2013 is going to be an interesting one. I don't know anything about astrometeorology. What I do know how to do tho, is observe present conditions, and read previous conditions. I think the cooling of the oceans is normal. There is a cycle to these, of which we are all aware. Previous cycles, conditions etc are the drivers of weather, and over time the results is climate. When talking with Dr. Lupo today, he said the Greenland high was like a cat on a bed of hot coals. Moving all over and moving very fast. This is not what has been considered "normal". The Pacific has most deff switched to a negative PDO. The Atlantic is close to switching now as well, so this creates a double whammy in ref to Northern Hemisphere weather. Which, once again, becomes the climate. Things are shaping up, as I see it, for a cool somewhat moist spring for the Northern Great Plains area. It will be very important to watch the Arctic outbreaks. The winter wheat crop is vulnerable at this time. The little bit of moisture, with the warm temps is bringing it out of dorm. More moisture to come it appears. The Greenland high tho.....may draw cold air on an express south and result in frost damage. This has been more common the past few years than in a longggg time. The stable weather/climate that we were lucky to have when there was a warming trend now appear to be a thing of the past. The warming stopped long ago, the question will be....how fast will it cool. We will know that by next year, 2014, according to my calculations in how fast it will cool. Already, the astronomic forcing of the earth's climate, primarily by the activity of the Sun, sees the world in these last waning years of global warming as we near the new regime I have been forecasting for a long time to come soon, and that is global cooling. Natural variability, is again, another term for astronomic forcing and regulation of the world's climate and resulting weather. What all of the indicators from geophysical readings and measurements show effects from astronomic causes. Therefore, anyone who depends on those readings are merely guessing at what the future climate and weather may or may not turn out to be in reality. The 'drivers of weather and over time the climate,' are all astronomic and that is what astrometeorology does, is to forecast the effects based on those causes. There is no other way to accomplish that feat except by astronomic forecasting.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 20, 2013 19:14:08 GMT
Theodore: You make forecasts based on atrometeorology.
I look at present conditions, the trends that got us there, and what has happened in the past. I do think that astrometeorology is reliant on cycles?
The cause of the cycles etc, I do not have time to learn.
The effect OF the cycles, I most deff have learned.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 21, 2013 16:02:59 GMT
Theodore: You make forecasts based on atrometeorology. I look at present conditions, the trends that got us there, and what has happened in the past. I do think that astrometeorology is reliant on cycles? The cause of the cycles etc, I do not have time to learn. The effect OF the cycles, I most deff have learned. Well, what you call 'present conditions' Sigurdur were once 'forecasts.' Do you see? Anything that you consider to be a present climate or weather condition is based (as everything else) on astronomic forcing. There is no difference, only in your mind and there is always time to learn more.
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Post by strongminded on Feb 24, 2013 21:07:19 GMT
For those of you who have read Astromets blog: Predicted, forecasted, determined, that there would be a major weather event Feb. 25-27. I believe he is correct yet again.
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 24 2013 - 12Z TUE FEB 26 2013
...ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG SECTIONS OF GULF COAST...
...A COASTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SUNDAY...
A PATTERN NEARLY REMINISCENT OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHICH FEATURED HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL IMPACT A SIMILAR AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CULPRIT IS A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY TRAVERSING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES EASTWARD FROM WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX ON MON...IT SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN ALOFT AIDING IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE PARENT SURFACE LOW. THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ROCKIES WHERE VIGOROUS VERTICAL LIFT UNDER THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. EVENTUALLY THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND AS THE SYSTEM FEEDS OFF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DURING THIS INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...LOCALIZED BANDING OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. THE HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK IS ADVERTISING AN EXPANSIVE STRIPE OF 1 FOOT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. WITHIN THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...WILL BE A POCKET OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 18 INCHES AND HIGHER. THIS WILL EASILY LEAD TO A HEFTY SNOW PACK GIVEN MUCH OF THE SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENT HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY MELTED. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SNOW...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL FEATURE A POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINS. THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LOCALLY SEVERE ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN FURTHER INCREASES IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT. THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE AIR MASS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM EAST TEXAS ALL THE WAY TO COASTAL GEORGIA. FURTHER...LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR UNDERNEATH TRAINING/BACKBUILDING STORMS.
LOOKING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION...A COASTAL SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM LONG ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO RESTRICT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MAINE COAST. BACK TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BARRELING TOWARD THE REGION WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE FOLLOWING DAY. SURFACE ONSHORE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY ADVECT PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS SHOULD DOMINATE ALONG THE CASCADES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE BITTERROOTS. THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 24, 2013 21:38:57 GMT
have a link strongminded?
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 25, 2013 20:29:17 GMT
Thanks to all he responded my question. I was hoping for something from you Theodore? I know you believe the Sun drives the climate but what are your thoughts, briefly, about the human contribution to warming? Do you believe humans contribute to warming? Using for an analogy, a pot of water, the stove/range burner element is the Sun and therefore the primary driver, the water will boil without a lid (C02) but will occur faster with the lid on. Therefore is not the pot lid (C02) a human contribution? Hi Codewhacker, I work forecasting a lot, so I often don't have much time to respond to questions. However, if you note my articles and forecasts online you will find that I know that there is no such thing as 'man-made global warming." It does not exist. And yes, it has been, and as always been my contention that the Sun is the cause of global warming, global cooling and everything else in between. Nothing has changed. As for 'belief,' the Sun and the laws of physics do not require anyone's belief to continue to function as they have since the origins of the Earth - which cannot ever become a man-made greenhouse. The reason why this physical fact is so, is the laws of physics which prove that it is the Sun that rules our climate and its weather. As for your question, there is nothing (including C02) that can act as a 'lid' over the Earth. The cold of space comes closer to Earth, then retreats again, as most of the radiation from the Sun's cosmic rays, by means of its solar winds to the Earth, is sent back out into space. What is retained naturally on earth is the energy that provides for life to exist on our planet and that produces our climate and resulting weather. So, there is no such thing as man-made global warming since for that to be possible [and it is impossible] there would have to be a perpetual machine with incredible amounts of power to be able to drive heat constantly up into the Earth's atmosphere - and no such machine exists. There are many people out there who play games in the serious business of climate and weather forecasting who do NOT forecast but who make pronouncements that I, as a forecaster, know for a fact are not true. And let's not forget that the climate modelers who alarm the world about 'man-made global warming' have been busted, that's been wrong on the seasonal climate for five (5) years in a row, and have been wrong in for the summer seasonal climates for nine (9)years in a row. That is actually a worse performance than random guessing. Those who say that humanity is the cause of 'global warming' aka 'climate change' are not playing with a full deck. The laws of physics absolutely prove 10,000% that the Earth can never become a greenhouse. Period.
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