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Post by AstroMet on Mar 7, 2013 3:50:55 GMT
As far as the idiots who are certain based on their models.....all I can say is I feel sorry for them. It's happened before, as with the most recent storm event near the Mid-Atlantic where this time the European models were right. We have a last quarter moon phase that contributed to this latest storm. However, for 2013's climate, I will have a general outlook for the spring, summer and autumn out this month. It looks like another hot, dry climate with continuation and spread of the drought, a bit more eastward into the Midwest as well while the Plains get some relief with soil moisture, but not that much. Going to be a very interesting climate year just ahead.
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Post by fly guy on Mar 9, 2013 17:27:39 GMT
Theo, on an earlier string, in 2012, you had advised farmers to be aware of potential problems from stinkbug infestations for crop year 2013. This week we met with an agronomist from central Iowa and he had advised us to aggressively scout for stinkbugs this year. He had commented that they are not uncommon, but he had found a species unique to the midwest late last summer and he's not sure how they will handle the winter. he had commented that if we have a warm summer with winds this species could be a problem. Couldn't help but think about your earlier forcasts advising us to watch for this, not sure how you do it but it's pretty cool. When he sends his newsletter I will post the name of the species.
mark
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 10, 2013 1:37:58 GMT
Theo, on an earlier string, in 2012, you had advised farmers to be aware of potential problems from stinkbug infestations for crop year 2013. This week we met with an agronomist from central Iowa and he had advised us to aggressively scout for stinkbugs this year. He had commented that they are not uncommon, but he had found a species unique to the midwest late last summer and he's not sure how they will handle the winter. he had commented that if we have a warm summer with winds this species could be a problem. Couldn't help but think about your earlier forcasts advising us to watch for this, not sure how you do it but it's pretty cool. When he sends his newsletter I will post the name of the species. mark In my climate calculations, I sometimes see signals that relate to insect infestations, as it is a part of forecasting for farmers and for the atmospheric climate in general in astrometeorology. This crop year will have issues with insects, so those farmers who get an early start, nipping anything in the bud they see in their region, will do better later in the season and by harvest. There will help for pollination by bees, flies, butterflies and beetles this year for crops that need them. Flowers of most crops need to receive pollen before making seeds and fruits, a process enhanced by insects that visit flowers. However, with the warmer climate and in places that had a mild winter with some precipitation (especially south) you will see headlines this 2013 season concerning insect swarms in the news according to my calculations. Everything from swarms of bees, flies, and of course stinkbugs, ants, locusts and mosquitoes will be prevalent this season - and next.
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Post by ilfarmer on Mar 14, 2013 11:17:14 GMT
I have a farm in IL E of St Louis and need to make crop insurance level decisions by 15 Mar. Reading your posts it seems the worst of the 13 drought will be W of me and therefore I may not need to go to 85% coverage as the added costs may not get paid out. Is this a correct reading of your weather forecast?
Ilfarmer
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 16, 2013 1:20:45 GMT
I have a farm in IL E of St Louis and need to make crop insurance level decisions by 15 Mar. Reading your posts it seems the worst of the 13 drought will be W of me and therefore I may not need to go to 85% coverage as the added costs may not get paid out. Is this a correct reading of your weather forecast? Ilfarmer Hi ILFarmer, On the March 15 crop insurance decisions: I've been advising farmers to wait to make that decision under after March 17th, that's when Mercury stations direct. Frankly, those who set the March 15th date don't read calendars very well. However, I do. The crop insurance decisions are based on seasonal outcomes, which even NOAA does not really do well at all. I would get as much coverage as possible considering the climate conditions this season as I see them. Most who know of my seasonal forecasts know that I expect the drought to continue this year, along with hot temperatures that will rival last year's blazing heat and dryness in the Corn Belt and Midwest. There are regions that will see a bit more moisture this year however, this drought is a multi-year drought that needs to be taken seriously. So insurance should cover this because the drought is not over.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 16, 2013 13:46:03 GMT
This year is looking like a late wet spring for a large area.
The polar vortex etc is presenting itself as "One of those Years".
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Post by strongminded on Mar 16, 2013 16:01:10 GMT
Really looking forward to your Spring, Summer and Fall forecast Astromet.
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Post by karlox on Mar 17, 2013 19:33:40 GMT
This year is looking like a late wet spring for a large area. The polar vortex etc is presenting itself as "One of those Years". In Spain drought is definetely over. North, West and South soil can´t take more water, and snow to melt in the mountains... Seasonal predictions from met office are that both temperatures and rainfall will be "normal" -none deviation- for the next 3 months every region of Spain, which means they probably don´t know what will happen. Neither do I.
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Post by ilfarmer on Mar 18, 2013 5:58:23 GMT
thanks Theodore-the 15th of Mar was set by the govt I guess-at least for the state of IL-other states further N may have a later date for making the decision on crop insurance.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 20, 2013 18:48:37 GMT
Now that is a bit of snow!
AS far as CFC's....yes, they cause a chemical chain effect. The energy for that effect is from UV
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 21, 2013 2:22:58 GMT
The photo is me and my grandson in a wheat field last May.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 22, 2013 1:04:07 GMT
My Grandson likes New Holland farm macinery.
Have a bit of New Holland, Case-IH, and John Deere.
I try to get the best value with no reliance on color.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 22, 2013 1:07:46 GMT
This photo is of my grandson 2 years ago. The field is not the same field as on the other picture. Was just about done combining this when my Grandson visited.
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 22, 2013 2:33:48 GMT
I'm back...and going to play devil's advocate. CFC's (chlorofluorocarbon's) Quick poll. Did they or did they not interact with the atmosphere? See where I'm going here? If they did then it might make sense that CO2 could interact with the atmosphere too because if human's can produce enough CFC's to interact with the planet on a global scale they also could product enough CO2. Theo I hope to hear from you since this is your string and I've enjoyed reading you over the years. Thanks P.S. WTF? The forecast is calling for snow? "The snow level is forecasted to drop to 500 feet or lower early Thursday morning, and even places below 500 feet could get an inch of slushy snow, NWS meteorologist Andy Haner said, though the showery nature of the precipitation makes it difficult to predict just how much snow the area might get." Hi Codewhacker, Everything interacts with our atmosphere, though primarily in very small quantities considering the diffusion ability of water vapor gas that constitute the great majority of our atmosphere. As for snowfall, what you will find in most places in the northern hemisphere is a chilly March. If you look around, you will most likely discover a lot of cooler-than-average March temperatures. See -> www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=136This winter has been persistent, even after the vernal equinox. It's what I expected, seeing astronomic transits. So, there's more snowfall this month and in some lower elevation regions too. You'll hear of snow showers in urban areas along with cold temperatures. There have been unusually cold patterns in play this month. Planting season looks to get started between March 24 - April 18, from the looks of astronomic transits. It looks sluggish second half of March with the cold temperatures and precipitation. Temperatures begin to warm in April, gradually, in most regions, but ground is still cold. Looks like the new moon of April 10th signals the time to begin planting, seeing these transits, and by April 18th the seeding season can begin in earnest. But there are flood concerns I have for planting season. Say, places like North Dakota, around the Red River, between eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. If they get rains like I'm seeing then along with the snow-melt that would threaten about 20,000 acres of farmland. This stubborn winter points to conditions for next winter as well, which, in my outlook appears to be longer than usual - about 5 months length in many regions, and like 6 months overall for other regions. That's next year. Generally, that means to enjoy this summer coming up, with an eye to put in some work to make preparations for next year's longer winter season. I'll be cutting cords of wood a little more this summer, for next winter, which looks to set some weather records when all is said and done.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 22, 2013 3:07:15 GMT
Theodore: The acres affected along the Red River and tributaries is 2,000,000 acres rather than 20,000 acres.
The two million, if it does rain much this spring would easily expand to 5-6 million acres.
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