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Post by nautonnier on Oct 17, 2019 23:38:17 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 22, 2019 4:04:40 GMT
Geomagnetic Effects on Living Organisms
Will GDS be ordained?
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 22, 2019 9:18:37 GMT
Seems that SC25 may not be leaping into view as fast as expected. Are any of the solar cycle forecast models timing out yet?
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Post by acidohm on Oct 22, 2019 18:56:31 GMT
Seems that SC25 may not be leaping into view as fast as expected. Are any of the solar cycle forecast models timing out yet? If the last cycle is anything to go by, we have another year of very few spots.... I think the minimum has arrived earlier then forecast??
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 23, 2019 9:21:00 GMT
<<SNIP PIC>> Seems that SC25 may not be leaping into view as fast as expected. Are any of the solar cycle forecast models timing out yet? If the last cycle is anything to go by, we have another year of very few spots.... I think the minimum has arrived earlier then forecast?? The lack of spots has arrived earlier perhaps - but the date of the minimum is worked out by waiting till the SC25 spots are rising then choosing a date half way between the same level in SC24. So we could still be quite a long time from 'minimum'. Scary thought.
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Post by youngjasper on Oct 26, 2019 13:07:25 GMT
SFI is at 65. I do not ever recall seeing it that low. I thought 66 was the limit.
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Post by duwayne on Oct 26, 2019 14:47:25 GMT
SFI is at 65. I do not ever recall seeing it that low. I thought 66 was the limit. As a "youngjasper", I don't know how far back your memory goes but the TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) so far this cycle has not declined to the lowest levels of the preceding cycle. The SFI may show something different.
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Post by youngjasper on Oct 26, 2019 20:13:42 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Nov 11, 2019 21:05:39 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 11, 2019 21:45:13 GMT
Good find Blu. Unlike chicken versus egg theory, the modeler always precedes the model ... and therein lies the problem.
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Post by Ratty on Nov 11, 2019 23:34:36 GMT
This pattern is found to be compatible with the ACRIM TSI composite and confirms the ACRIM TSI increasing trend from 1980 to 2000, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.Coinciding with the late twentieth century warming?
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Post by duwayne on Nov 12, 2019 18:39:55 GMT
I'd like to see a summary of this paper posted on WUWT to see what comments it generates, particularly from Dr Leif Svalgaard. Leif seems to be convinced that the TSI doesn't go below 1360 watts per sq. meter which is considerably above the 1357 value on Scafetti's chart.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 30, 2019 19:53:42 GMT
An interesting post from HenryP translated from the original Dutch.... " Revisiting the 87-year Gleissberg solar cycle
....... I looked at this from 4 completely different angles and I re-calculated this date. In all cases I came to a date of 1995 or close. This was by looking at
My own statistical analysis of all daily data from 54 weather stations from all around the world. The solar polar magnetic field strengths. The position of certain planets. The general increase in ozone, especially since 1995.
You will understand that over the past few decades many big dams and irrigation systems have been installed in the Nile and of course this will interfere with the measurement of the level of river Nile as it now stands. However, the principle remains the same, namely that there will be periods of more – or less – rain around the equator due to a decrease or increase in the intensity of a certain type of radiation from the sun, coming through the atmosphere, due to a 80-90 year weather cycle as proposed by Arnold and his predecessors, Wolff and Gleissberg. We are now moving toward a period of much more rain around the equator. A logical consequence of this is that there will be less rain and clouds available for the higher latitudes, 40-50 ........."breadonthewater.co.za/2019/09/22/revisiting-the-87-year-gleissberg-solar-cycle/
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 30, 2019 22:09:52 GMT
Thus 2019-2026, or there abouts. Next year or the next.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 1, 2019 11:37:00 GMT
Thus 2019-2026, or there abouts. Next year or the next. Or in other words - Astro's forecast.
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