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Post by karlox on Nov 15, 2013 10:41:23 GMT
Might be coincidence, but these past days sun activity is peaking (double peak for maximum SC24?) and a clear shift to positive NAO occurs. Having first cold spell in Spain as Big Atlantic Blocking-High wanders up north from Azores; typical situation in which Spain´s mediterranean areas get wetter colder weather, while usually wetter western Iberia gets drier through automn-winter. Let´s see if NAO´s turning back to negative or neutral as one could expect for winter-time progression? Have found this paper relative to this: Connection between NAO and weather in Leon (north-western Spain)
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Post by trbixler on Nov 25, 2013 2:30:18 GMT
Well if you do not choke on the gratuitous AGW finish...I did not include it in the quote. "Calm solar cycle prompts questions about impact on Earth" ""It is the weakest cycle the sun has been in for all the space age, for 50 years," National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association physicist Doug Biesecker told AFP. " "But scientists are watching the sun carefully to see whether cycle 24 is going to be an aberration -- or if this solar calmness is going to stretch through the next cycle as well. "We won't know that for another good three or four years," said Biesecker. Some researchers speculate this could be the start of a prolonged period of weak solar activity. The last time that happened, during the so-called "Maunder Minimum" between 1650 and 1715, almost no sunspots were observed. During the same period, temperatures dropped sharply on Earth, sparking what is called the "Little Ice Age" in Europe and North America. As the sunspot numbers continue to stay low, it's possible the Earth's climate is being affected again." link
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 25, 2013 2:46:19 GMT
TR: I had read this earlier.....and you sure have that correct. The AGW finish.
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Post by Pooh on Nov 25, 2013 6:17:15 GMT
Karlox: "double peak for maximum SC24?". Yes. Phillips, Dr. Tony. “Solar Cycle Update: Twin Peaks?” Scientific. NASA Science, March 1, 2013. science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/01mar_twinpeaks/"Something unexpected is happening on the sun. 2013 is supposed to be the year of Solar Max, the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle. Yet 2013 has arrived and solar activity is relatively low. Sunspot numbers are well below their values in 2011, and strong solar flares have been infrequent for many months.
"The quiet has led some observers to wonder if forecasters missed the mark. Solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center has a different explanation:
"'This is solar maximum," he suggests. "But it looks different from what we expected because it is double peaked.'"
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 26, 2013 9:03:04 GMT
Dan Pangburn shows: "The Sun explains 95% of climate change over the past 400 years; CO2 had no significant influence" Dan Pangburn shows that solar activity explains 95% of global temperature change over the past 403 years since 1610, including the recovery from the Little Ice Age. Change to the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide was found to have no significant influence. Figure 1: Measured average global temperature anomalies with calculated prior and future trends using 34 as the average daily sunspot number. Figure 3: Trend from the sunspot number time-integral plus ocean oscillation using Equation (2) with superimposed available measured data. Conclusions Others that have looked at only amplitude or only time factors for solar cycles got poor correlations with average global temperature. The good correlation comes by combining the two, which is what the time-integral of sunspot numbers does. As shown in Figure 2, the anomaly trend determined using the sunspot number time-integral has experienced substantial change over the recorded period. Prediction of future sunspot numbers more than a decade or so into the future has not yet been confidently done although assessments using planetary synodic periods appear to be relevant 7,8. If the temperature of the bulk volume of water participating in the ocean oscillation is used in place of the surface temperature of the water, the time-integral of sunspot numbers alone appears to correlate with the estimated true average global temperature trend after approximately 1700. The net effect of ocean oscillations is to cause the surface temperature trend to oscillate above and below the trend calculated using only the sunspot number time-integral. Equation (2) accounts for both and also, since it matches measurements so well, shows that rational change to the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide can have no significant influence. Link: agwunveiled.blogspot.co.uk/
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 3, 2013 3:03:20 GMT
The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20-24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117713007473wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/02/study-predicts-the-sun-is-headed-for-a-dalton-like-solar-minimum-around-2050/
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 3, 2013 3:10:36 GMT
Interesting read. climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/The key factor in making CO2 emission control policy is the climate sensitivity to CO2 . By AR5 - WG1 the IPCC is saying: (Section 9.7.3.3) "The assessed literature suggests that the range of climate sensitivities and transient responses covered by CMIP3/5 cannot be narrowed significantly by constraining the models with observations of the mean climate and variability, consistent with the difficulty of constraining the cloud feedbacks from observations " In plain English this means that they have no idea what the climate sensitivity is and that therefore that the politicians have no empirical scientific basis for their economically destructive climate and energy policies. In summary the projections of the IPCC - Met office models and all the impact studies which derive from them are based on specifically structurally flawed and inherently useless models. They deserve no place in any serious discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money. As a basis for public policy their forecasts are grossly in error and therefore worse than useless.
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Post by cuttydyer on Dec 3, 2013 9:39:37 GMT
The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20-24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117713007473wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/02/study-predicts-the-sun-is-headed-for-a-dalton-like-solar-minimum-around-2050/The AP index is certainly in a slump:
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 3, 2013 15:04:25 GMT
It sure is. Doesn't look like that slump is going to change anytime soon either.
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Post by cuttydyer on Dec 5, 2013 10:09:31 GMT
Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov's (Director of the Russian segment of the International Space Station and Director of the Pulkovo Observatory in St Petersburg) has had a new paper published: GRAND MINIMUM OF THE TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE LEADS TO THE LITTLE ICE AGE solar physicist Habibullo Abdussamatov predicts the current lull in solar activity will continue and lead to a new Little Ice Age within the next 30 years. Excerpts: Significant climate variations during the past 7.5 millennia indicate that bicentennial quasi-periodic TSI variations define a corresponding cyclic mechanism of climatic changes from global warmings to Little Ice Ages and set the timescales of practically all physical processes taking place in the Sun-Earth system. Quasi-bicentennial cyclic variations of the TSI entering the Earth’s upper atmosphere are the main fundamental cause of corresponding alternations of climate variations. At the same time, more long-term variations of the annual average of the TSI due to changes in the shape of the Earth's orbit, inclination of the Earth's axis relative to its orbital plane, and precession, known as the astronomical Milankovitch cycles, together with the subsequent feedback effects, lead to the Big Glacial Periods (with the period of about 100,000 years). The start of Grand Maunder-type Minimum of the TSI of the quasibicentennial cycle is anticipated in solar cycle 27±1 about the year 2043±11 and the beginning of the phase of deep cooling of the 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7,500 years in the year 2060±11 Figure 1, 2). Now we witness the transitional period from warming to deep cooling characterized by unstable climate changes when the global temperature will oscillate (approximately until 2014) around the maximum achieved in 1998-005. these prognoses are confirmed by the Sun itself and the course of global temperature changes and the level of the World ocean for the past 16 years. In general, by analogy with the seasons on Earth there is also a similar alternation of climatic conditions in the Solar System, dictated by the quasi-bicentennial cycle variation of the TSI. From this point of view, ow the whole of our Solar System after season of the "solar summer" is moving to the season of the "solar autumn" and then will move to the season of the "solar winter" of the quasibicentennial solar cycle. There is simultaneous warming of the Earth, Mars and the whole Solar System which has a natural solar origin and confirms the action of “solar summer” throughout the Solar system and alternation of climate conditions in it. The content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere largely depends on the World Ocean, and the content of dust depends on volcanic activity and on the rise of aerosols rom and. The amounts of natural flows (carbon dioxide, water vapour, and dust) from the Ocean and land to the atmosphere Min) and from the atmosphere (Mout) to the Ocean and land exceed many times the anthropogenic discharges of these substances into the atmosphere (Mant) (Nigmatulin R.I. The Ocean: climate, resources, and natural disasters. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2010; 80(4): 338-349). The overall content of carbon dioxide in the Ocean is 50 times higher than in the atmosphere, and even a weak “breath” of the Ocean can change dramatically the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere. Natural causes play the most important role in climate variations rather than human activity since natural factors are substantially more powerful. Antarctic ice cores provide clear evidence of a close coupling between variations of temperature and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide during the glacial/interglacial cycles of at least the past 800-thousand years. Analysis of ice cores shows that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere follows the rise temperatures very closely and lagged warmings by 800±400 years. During the glacial/interglacial cycles the peaks of carbon dioxide concentration have never preceded the warmings. Therefore there is no evidence that carbon dioxide is a major factor in the warming of the Earth now. Considerable changes of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide always determined by corresponding temperature fluctuations of the World Ocean. Thus, the quasi-bicentennial variations of the TSI (allowing for their direct and secondary impacts, with the latter being due to the secondary feedback effects) are the major and essential cause of climate changes. The Sun is the main factor controlling the climatic system and even non-significant long-term TSI variations may have serious consequences for the climate of the Earth and other planets of the Solar system. Quasi-bicentennial solar cycles are the key to understanding cyclic changes in both the nature and the society. The sign and value of the energy imbalance in the Earth-atmosphere system over a long time span (excess of incoming TSI accumulated by the Ocean, or its deficiency) determine a corresponding change of the energy state of the system and, hence, a forthcoming climate variation and its amplitude. That is why the Earth’s climate will change every 200±70 years; and it is the result of bicentennial cyclic TSI variation. The observed long-term decline of TSI and forthcoming deep cooling will, first of all, essentially affect climate-dependent natural resources and, hence, influence, in the first place, economic closely connected with state of the climate. The most reasonable way to fight against the coming Little Ice Age is a complex of special steps aimed at support of economic growth and energy-saving production in order to adapt mankind to forthcoming period of deep cooling which will last approximately until the beginning of the 22nd century. Early understanding of reality of the forthcoming global cooling and physical mechanisms responsible for it directly determines a choice of adequate and reliable measures which will allow the mankind, in particular, population of countries situated far from the equator, to adapt to the future global cooling.Link: scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/grand_minimum.pdf
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Post by Pooh on Dec 6, 2013 5:53:53 GMT
Precaution, Post Normal Science & Possible Cooling solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/1948/precaution-post-normal-science-coolingPreface to the thread: Cass Sunstein (Formerly Regulatory Czar) wrote: "Precautions, in other words, themselves create risks - and hence the principle bans what it simultaneously requires" (Sunstein, 2008). The current situation is a case in point. - Multiple current observations suggest we could be entering a cold spell capable of reversing warming and introducing a cold period. Some suggest that period could last 30-50 years. We may find we zigged when we should have zagged.
- Under the Precautionary Principle (PP) and Post Normal Science (PNS), "Global Warming" policy action is contradicted by precursors and observations of steady or cooling trends. Historically, cooling adversely affects both environment and the human population. PNS and the PP principles would have governments act to prevent global warming and global cooling simultaneously. However, EPA carbon regulations will cripple the U.S. economy and its citizens, reducing our means to adapt to either.
- Applying PNS and PP criteria, the correct ("no regrets") policies are to abandon regulatory mandates for fossil fuel reductions and encourage unbiased, more comprehensive climate research. Citizens, on the other hand, are at liberty to choose adaptive actions such as more efficient automobiles, insulation, sealing and heating and cooling systems when and if they find it desirable.
What follows ( in the rest of the thread) does not require that either cooling or warming scenarios be "scientifically proven". Indeed, each scenario requires opposite policy actions under the Precautionary Principle and Post Normal Science.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 6, 2013 12:18:20 GMT
Precaution, Post Normal Science & Possible Cooling solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/1948/precaution-post-normal-science-coolingPreface to the thread: Cass Sunstein (Formerly Regulatory Czar) wrote: "Precautions, in other words, themselves create risks - and hence the principle bans what it simultaneously requires" (Sunstein, 2008). The current situation is a case in point. - Multiple current observations suggest we could be entering a cold spell capable of reversing warming and introducing a cold period. Some suggest that period could last 30-50 years. We may find we zigged when we should have zagged.
- Under the Precautionary Principle (PP) and Post Normal Science (PNS), "Global Warming" policy action is contradicted by precursors and observations of steady or cooling trends. Historically, cooling adversely affects both environment and the human population. PNS and the PP principles would have governments act to prevent global warming and global cooling simultaneously. However, EPA carbon regulations will cripple the U.S. economy and its citizens, reducing our means to adapt to either.
- Applying PNS and PP criteria, the correct ("no regrets") policies are to abandon regulatory mandates for fossil fuel reductions and encourage unbiased, more comprehensive climate research. Citizens, on the other hand, are at liberty to choose adaptive actions such as more efficient automobiles, insulation, sealing and heating and cooling systems when and if they find it desirable.
What follows ( in the rest of the thread) does not require that either cooling or warming scenarios be "scientifically proven". Indeed, each scenario requires opposite policy actions under the Precautionary Principle and Post Normal Science. Unfortunately, bureaucrats don't work like that. Whatever initiated their departments PNS or Precautionary Principle, becomes unimportant compared to the survival and indeed increase in size and power of their department. So the fact that it becomes proven that the raison d'etre for their department's existence is no longer valid will be totally disregarded. One of the reasons the UK power generation facilities are being shut down by 'EU Regulations' is not to do with 'carbon dioxide emissions' or 'fossil fuel' it is the " Large Combustion Plant Directive" the Large Combustion Plant Directive was put in place mainly to prevent SO2 and NOx emissions that 'cause acid rain' which was supposedly killing forests. The acid rain hypothesis has been debunked however, that has not prevented the slow bureaucratic engrenage that will now result almost certainly in UK having rolling power cuts and brown outs as major generating plant is closed down 'to prevent acid rain'. I suspect that the EPA will still be enforcing carbon dioxide emission reduction even if it is proven that they are being counter productive as bureaucrats have zero interest in what the actual effect is of what they are doing, as long as their head count and departments continue to increase in size. The only way to stop the bureaucrats in such groups is to defund them and close down the departments and their function.
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Post by Pooh on Dec 7, 2013 6:04:34 GMT
nautonnier: Of course you are correct. Facts and logic have no place in a bureaucracy. Only position, money and power.
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Post by Ratty on Dec 7, 2013 11:29:51 GMT
[ Snip ]The only way to stop the bureaucrats in such groups is to defund them and close down the departments and their function. The new Australian PM is making a start: Abbott shuts down Climate CommissionElected 14th September 2013. Climate Commission shut down five days later.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 7, 2013 14:05:19 GMT
I don't want the EPA shut down, but I do want the EPA to use sensible rules based on SCIENCE. Not wishful thinking.
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