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Post by nautonnier on Jul 1, 2017 22:57:51 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 2, 2017 15:51:28 GMT
As was pointed out to me in the past, these prognostications (modeled guesses) talk about winters and rarely mention summers ... and their highly averaged means look relatively small. So do we have a Big Joe Analog? I dipped into past data and came out with this ... a comparison of CET and Philadelphia 11-Year mean Winter Core (Nov-Apr) and Summer Core (May-Oct) temperatures from 1777 to 2016 displayed against various solar and SST indices. So if our best analog is a comparison of 'our recently past' maximum and the Dalton Minimum for NW Europe and NE North America, We note that the decadal trends are relatively coincident and summer trends mirror winter trends at a slightly lower magnitude. Historic cold periods are colder in Philadelphia as would be expected as the CET is moderated by the NAD. The articles' modeled, less than -1C effect is doubled or tripled in the historical winter changes between the bottom of the Dalton and 'the late, great maximum' ... -2 C for the CET and -3.5 C for Philadelphia. Summer cores are similar at a reduced magnitude ... -1.25 C for the CET and -2 C for Philadelphia. These means also miss the extremes ... as all means do. If we repeat a Maunder Minimum, then all bets are off! But my South Florida lot might prove to be a very good investment. And the south-30, 40-lb squirrels and I must come to a mutually beneficial nutrition arrangement.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 2, 2017 18:58:54 GMT
As was pointed out to me in the past, these prognostications (modeled guesses) talk about winters and rarely mention summers ... and their highly averaged means look relatively small. So do we have a Big Joe Analog? I dipped into past data and came out with this ... a comparison of CET and Philadelphia 11-Year mean Winter Core (Nov-Apr) and Summer Core (May-Oct) temperatures from 1777 to 2016 displayed against various solar and SST indices. So if our best analog is a comparison of 'our recently past' maximum and the Dalton Minimum for NW Europe and NE North America, We note that the decadal trends are relatively coincident and summer trends mirror winter trends at a slightly lower magnitude. Historic cold periods are colder in Philadelphia as would be expected as the CET is moderated by the NAD. The articles' modeled, less than -1C effect is doubled or tripled in the historical winter changes between the bottom of the Dalton and 'the late, great maximum' ... -2 C for the CET and -3.5 C for Philadelphia. Summer cores are similar at a reduced magnitude ... -1.25 C for the CET and -2 C for Philadelphia. These means also miss the extremes ... as all means do. If we repeat a Maunder Minimum, then all bets are off! But my South Florida lot might prove to be a very good investment. And the south-30, 40-lb squirrels and I must come to a mutually beneficial nutrition arrangement. youtu.be/XHaLXUz87kcSlightly off topic....however Missouriboy, you were looking at seeing the loopyness of the jet... This lady has an explanation on sinusoidal loopiness and some graphs etc!!
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 2, 2017 20:25:13 GMT
As was pointed out to me in the past, these prognostications (modeled guesses) talk about winters and rarely mention summers ... and their highly averaged means look relatively small. So do we have a Big Joe Analog? I dipped into past data and came out with this ... a comparison of CET and Philadelphia 11-Year mean Winter Core (Nov-Apr) and Summer Core (May-Oct) temperatures from 1777 to 2016 displayed against various solar and SST indices. So if our best analog is a comparison of 'our recently past' maximum and the Dalton Minimum for NW Europe and NE North America, We note that the decadal trends are relatively coincident and summer trends mirror winter trends at a slightly lower magnitude. Historic cold periods are colder in Philadelphia as would be expected as the CET is moderated by the NAD. The articles' modeled, less than -1C effect is doubled or tripled in the historical winter changes between the bottom of the Dalton and 'the late, great maximum' ... -2 C for the CET and -3.5 C for Philadelphia. Summer cores are similar at a reduced magnitude ... -1.25 C for the CET and -2 C for Philadelphia. These means also miss the extremes ... as all means do. If we repeat a Maunder Minimum, then all bets are off! But my South Florida lot might prove to be a very good investment. And the south-30, 40-lb squirrels and I must come to a mutually beneficial nutrition arrangement. youtu.be/XHaLXUz87kcSlightly off topic....however Missouriboy, you were looking at seeing the loopyness of the jet... This lady has an explanation on sinusoidal loopiness and some graphs etc!! I see that 'wiggle watching' can now be quantified. There is hope for us Acid!
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 2, 2017 21:53:18 GMT
30 to 40lb squirrel watching?
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Post by Ratty on Jul 2, 2017 22:48:07 GMT
30 to 40lb squirrel watching? He'll need to upgrade his hunting tools, do away with that black powder thinggy.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 3, 2017 1:26:48 GMT
30 to 40lb squirrel watching? He'll need to upgrade his hunting tools, do away with that black powder thinggy. Well, first Ratty, you've got to remember that these are Missouri squirrels. They're rude and they're pretty sure the place belongs to them. So I thought I'd dust off the old Presidential deal making manual. First I tell the most rude one that he's uglier than a one-eyed Baptist minister from the wilds of Arkansas and his children are even uglier. Second, that I expect them off the property by sunup given they never bothered to get any legal documents. And finally, that my father shot and ate his ancestors for dinner. Then, while they're all jumping up and down and screaming, while contemplating how to remove my mouth from the land of the living ... I offer them them 'the mother of all deals' ...............................................Wait for it.................
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Post by Ratty on Jul 3, 2017 4:51:17 GMT
He'll need to upgrade his hunting tools, do away with that black powder thinggy. Well, first Ratty, you've got to remember that these are Missouri squirrels. They're rude and they're pretty sure the place belongs to them. So I thought I'd dust off the old Presidential deal making manual. First I tell the most rude one that he's uglier than a one-eyed Baptist minister from the wilds of Arkansas and his children are even uglier. Second, that I expect them off the property by sunup given they never bothered to get any legal documents. And finally, that my father shot and ate his ancestors for dinner. Then, while they're all jumping up and down and screaming, while contemplating how to remove my mouth from the land of the living ... I offer them them 'the mother of all deals' ...............................................Wait for it................. You mean you're going to give them free accommodation and welfare benefits?
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 3, 2017 5:27:02 GMT
Well, first Ratty, you've got to remember that these are Missouri squirrels. They're rude and they're pretty sure the place belongs to them. So I thought I'd dust off the old Presidential deal making manual. First I tell the most rude one that he's uglier than a one-eyed Baptist minister from the wilds of Arkansas and his children are even uglier. Second, that I expect them off the property by sunup given they never bothered to get any legal documents. And finally, that my father shot and ate his ancestors for dinner. Then, while they're all jumping up and down and screaming, while contemplating how to remove my mouth from the land of the living ... I offer them them 'the mother of all deals' ...............................................Wait for it................. You mean you're going to give them free accommodation and welfare benefits? NO. I'm still waiting for that part of the manual. I may have to reload and make a run for it.
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denty
New Member
Posts: 4
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Post by denty on Jul 20, 2017 13:10:08 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 20, 2017 14:55:22 GMT
But it also shows where the committed alarmists will be going if it gets cold: From the paper: "According to project head Werner Schmutz, who is also Director of PMOD, this reduction in temperature is significant, even though it will do little to compensate for human-induced climate change. "We could win valuable time if solar activity declines and slows the pace of global warming a little. That might help us to deal with the consequences of climate change." But this will be no more than borrowed time, warns Schmutz, since the next minimum will inevitably be followed by a maximum."So we are back into the AGW is real it is just not happening at the moment thanks to the Sun cooling... but keep paying the extra money and building windmills. Or - as I have posted before... Two snow suited figures are standing on the ice shelf 100 miles South of New Orleans watching the Mississippi glacier calve into the pack ice in the Gulf of Mexico. One figure kicking at an ice mound says to the other his breath visible in the 10 degree below freezing air... "When this lot melts its going to get catastrophically hot!"
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denty
New Member
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Post by denty on Jul 20, 2017 18:50:20 GMT
As strongly we depend on external natural factors.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 22, 2017 16:52:01 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 22, 2017 17:09:57 GMT
It's a variable star doing what variable stars do - varying
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 22, 2017 17:30:24 GMT
Reminds me once again that we should get busy doing what we're good at ... engineering. That fleet of star ships should be preparing to transport Albion's seed to the stars.
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