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Post by sigurdur on May 10, 2013 4:10:02 GMT
Ok.....a new 2013 Arctic Ice Poll Same metric as before as to extent. vote often...  Sigurdur |
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Post by trbixler on May 10, 2013 4:51:14 GMT
4.5 I do not know why.
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Post by karlox on May 10, 2013 7:53:19 GMT
3.7 (3.6-3.8)
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Post by neilhamp on May 10, 2013 14:15:08 GMT
Wishful thinking. Decided to go for highest available 4.9
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on May 10, 2013 16:50:25 GMT
4.1.
In other icy news... The Nenana ice classic is still going. The river usually breaks up in Late April or early May, and is a great proxy for how cold it has been. It started in 1917 and has been going for almost a hundred years.
The earliest breakup in history was in April 20 in 1940, and 1998.
The Mode occurs on two days. April 29, and 30 with nine breakups each on those days.
The latest breakup in history is an outlier at 20 May 1964 with the second latest coming in 4 days before that in 1945.
The data inconveniently shows no significant trend over the past 100 years, or 30 years... Of course, that makes me happy, as it does not seem likely that the planet will freeze or burn anytime soon. (Based of course on this tiny little proxy in the great white north...)
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on May 10, 2013 17:23:05 GMT
3.7?!? Really?
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on May 10, 2013 17:25:42 GMT
I'm sticking with the 4.9 I posted in the earlier poll, for the same reasons I stated there!
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Post by graywolf on May 10, 2013 18:15:57 GMT
I don't see the 2 to 2.25 million slot??? Since 10' have we seen the ice over 1.5 million above the year before? Have we seen it drop 1.5 million less than the year before? Maybe the spread should include the more likely outcomes for those of us that want to take an educated guess?
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birder
Level 3 Rank
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Post by birder on May 10, 2013 20:28:34 GMT
3.1 but hope it's completely ice free so that Pacific birds can get across to the UK, some have arrived over the last few years.
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Post by neilhamp on May 11, 2013 8:14:44 GMT
The temperatures up in the Arctic are displayed on Climate4you They have varied over a thirty year cycle and have been rising over the past 30years. They may now have peaked If so, we can expect a decline in Arctic temperatures over the next 30years I might be wrong, but this is why I expect Arctic sea ice to start to stabalize and even rise over the next decade Still sticking with 4.9  |
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Post by steve on May 11, 2013 8:59:34 GMT
Whose measure are we comparing against? Different institutions have different methods for measuring extent. What was their minimum last year?
For the record, in another poll I'm involved in I simply guessed "same as last year".
It's based purely on ice volume being the same this year as last year.
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Post by neilhamp on May 11, 2013 11:16:48 GMT
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Post by steve on May 11, 2013 11:45:17 GMT
3.5 then.
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Post by neilhamp on May 11, 2013 12:38:05 GMT
Wow!Steve
If I have read the graph correctly you think the September minimum will be lower than last year's all time low
Checking the September minimum back to 1979, whenever there is a big drop there is always a slight recovery the following year.
I hope I am not too ambitious in predicting a recovery back to 2011 levels
We are obviously at opposite ends of the spectrum (Oops! Sorry about the mixed metaphor)
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Post by karlox on May 11, 2013 17:51:03 GMT
3.7 (3.6-3.8). To be more precise 3.75. |
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