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Post by sigurdur on Apr 13, 2014 14:56:08 GMT
The currents are favoring an El Nino, but the colder water seems to be absorbing the heat on the surface. The plume of cooler water has actually expanded west, even tho the current is east. Quit a collision going on right now.
Yes, the North Atlantic Drift is also encountering problems with cold.
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Post by duwayne on Apr 13, 2014 15:20:03 GMT
Sigurdur, I'm still interested in your comment that "A full fledged El Nino is fed by warmer water upwelling off the coast of Peru/Ecuador." Are you saying that subsurface water with a temperature higher than the surface water temperature moves to the surface?
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Post by duwayne on Apr 13, 2014 16:06:36 GMT
Icefisher, thanks for your post above. My focus is on Nino3.4 because of its strong impact on global temperatures. Does your comment #4 apply to the Nino3.4 zone? I've repeated your comment here. "4.How you get multiple degrees of change in water temperature in the east is by slowing or stopping the upwelling and slowing or stop the movement of water to the west. This allows the water that once traveled relatively fast with strong upwelling and easterly trade winds to the west to languish in the equatorial sun for longer periods of time and to be cooled less by very cold upwelling water."
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 13, 2014 16:46:12 GMT
Sigurdur, I'm still interested in your comment that "A full fledged El Nino is fed by warmer water upwelling off the coast of Peru/Ecuador." Are you saying that subsurface water with a temperature higher than the surface water temperature moves to the surface? Duwayne: No, the upwelling water will always be cooler than the surface, but it is the degree of difference in temp of that upwelling. And also the speed of that upwelling. What I see happening now is the Kelvin wave of warmer water breaching the surface to far west as it bumps the colder thermocline. This isn't slowing down the upwelling of cooler sub surface water. I have 70-80% confidence now that an El Nino will form, but in regards to strength, unless something changes dramatically in the next month, it isn't going to be a strong one. The "normal" dead trade winds aren't dying either. Areas are dead, but they sure seem to come back from the dead with ease further west again, slowing the advancement of warmer water to help replenish the water that cools further east. In past stronger El Nino's the plume of cooler water virtually disappeared of the coast of South America, becoming warm quickly from the sun, and then reinforcing the El Nino strength.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 13, 2014 17:25:11 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Apr 13, 2014 21:42:50 GMT
SOI has gone strongly positive, 30 day average going rapidly less negative.
Suggests nascent El Nino weakening.
I am cheering loudly - it practically did'nt rain for three months in Melbourne. However, we received 50 mm last week.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 13, 2014 23:25:49 GMT
Glad that you are getting moisture Doug. Not so glad that the signs, in regards to this El Nino, are weakening.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 15, 2014 0:21:52 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Apr 15, 2014 1:15:37 GMT
Interesting but IRI did not update its models this month. I was looking forward to the model update that is provided each month. The only model updated on the enso status report is the NOAA CPC model. It is showing some weakening in their latest forecast, but its normal for this model to vary like that.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 15, 2014 1:50:07 GMT
Interesting but IRI did not update its models this month. I was looking forward to the model update that is provided each month. The only model updated on the enso status report is the NOAA CPC model. It is showing some weakening in their latest forecast, but its normal for this model to vary like that. I think the model variations are nothing to worry about, as the predictive ability of the current models is not very good. Observations, and looking at ENSO since the PDO switch, look to me a better predictor than the current models, which were developed during the warm phase of the PDO. And for all who doubt? Yes, fish show the warm and cold phase of the PDO. My friend at the NWS sent me a link to the buoy output of the Pacific. I lost the links, he is going to resend the e-mail that contained a bunch of links/information areas. What I found of interest in the above link is the talk of the cold plume yet surging of South America. I wish I knew more about the currents, and the source of the cold plume. Yes, I know there is a current from the south, but that is a surface current? I have not been able to find the depth, which to me is more important than a surface current. But once again, observations show that there is something going on, that that current can overcome the Kelvin wave (water) and looks strong enough, with enough cooler water, to absorb the Kelvin Wave and not hardly blink. One question I have, do ocean currents also noticeably change when the PDO is in a negative phase? What effect does the Atlantic have on the western SA current? The Magellan straight....etc..etc. I look, but I can't find anything credible. Hard to believe that some smart feller/woman isn't looking at this as well. But I can't find anything that indicates this.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 15, 2014 1:52:45 GMT
One thing that we know for sure. The odds of an El Nino happening increase each year that one Doesn't happen. Is this the year? Looks like it, but as I said, this thing is looking weaker all the time.
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Post by icefisher on Apr 15, 2014 5:44:49 GMT
Interesting but IRI did not update its models this month. I was looking forward to the model update that is provided each month. The only model updated on the enso status report is the NOAA CPC model. It is showing some weakening in their latest forecast, but its normal for this model to vary like that. I think the model variations are nothing to worry about, as the predictive ability of the current models is not very good. Observations, and looking at ENSO since the PDO switch, look to me a better predictor than the current models, which were developed during the warm phase of the PDO. And for all who doubt? Yes, fish show the warm and cold phase of the PDO. My friend at the NWS sent me a link to the buoy output of the Pacific. I lost the links, he is going to resend the e-mail that contained a bunch of links/information areas. What I found of interest in the above link is the talk of the cold plume yet surging of South America. I wish I knew more about the currents, and the source of the cold plume. Yes, I know there is a current from the south, but that is a surface current? I have not been able to find the depth, which to me is more important than a surface current. But once again, observations show that there is something going on, that that current can overcome the Kelvin wave (water) and looks strong enough, with enough cooler water, to absorb the Kelvin Wave and not hardly blink. One question I have, do ocean currents also noticeably change when the PDO is in a negative phase? What effect does the Atlantic have on the western SA current? The Magellan straight....etc..etc. I look, but I can't find anything credible. Hard to believe that some smart feller/woman isn't looking at this as well. But I can't find anything that indicates this. I agree Sigurdur, the focus on CAGW for the past 3 decades and the claims that natural variation is no longer a factor puts the entire world at risk. Dr Akasofu has been trying to make the point for a long time that to understand CAGW we first need to understand natural variation. Instead we get a bunch of fraudsters trying to sweep natural variation under the carpet. My favorite theory for the alternating cold/warm PDO events have the deep thermohaline currents and global ice fluctuations, particularly the Arctic minimum and the Antarctic maximum, which occur simultaneously and are the two extremes that are not constrained by land masses. The other extremes, the Arctic maximum and the Antarctic minimum are dramatically curtailed in fluctuation that probably provides for the seasonal nature of the annual ENSO pattern. If there were no constraints on the Arctic maximum and Antarctic minimum, ENSO could also get started in the winter. Ultimately I see some correlation for this idea and nothing contrary. This year is yet another good example of that effect. An Arctic minimum ice rebound (still below average) coupled with an Antarctic record amount of ice should have encouraged an El Nino condition. However, the oceans may have been cooling for a number of years so the upwellings may be unusually cool but we don't see sea temp numbers below the mixing zone. The overall PDO is in cold phase because of lower global ice since about 2003 allowing for the oceans to cool but we don't have ocean bottom temperature data to confirm or rule it out. There may be some ARGO floats in the upwelling zones where while they are not sampling ocean bottom water they would be sampling ocean bottom water being pulled to the surface. That might be some interesting data but maybe those are the ones being tossed out as suspected "leakers". I figure underlying ice/current changes, solar change sets true climatic change. The ice may fluctuate harmonically to cycles in the sun like waves in a pool. But all that is just a wild guess. We don't know what the mixing rates for the ocean are (one study suggested it would take more than a thousand years of gathering the kind of data we are gathering to learn something) and without ocean mixing information and a full temperature profile we are going to be left guessing for a long time. Research on thermohaline currents is almost non-existent. Even the deep Argo effort only samples less than the top half of the ocean. We know little beyond hypothesis about the thermohaline currents. The matter is extremely data poor.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 15, 2014 7:11:45 GMT
Icefisher: I agree with your assessment. There is so much we don't know about the oceans. They are the real driver of our climate, and they are driven by our sun.
Paleo data is helpful, but plate tectonics as well as fault movements render them only somewhat useful.
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Post by graywolf on Apr 15, 2014 8:22:13 GMT
blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/04/anthony-watts-is-confused-about-enso.htmlI see Wattsy is a tad twitched? I'll go all southern state Baptist on yer and say " Do unto others "........ or maybe "what goes around comes around........" Branded by his own misuse of a super Nino spike in 98' he now fears that science will do the same to show rapid warming over the period of the alledged 'hiatus' with some wag picking a low point since 98' and joining it to the temp spike to come ( the pathetic 2010, 9 month, Nino broke 98's record temps so what will this beastie do???)and saying " look at the rate of increase"..... As it is if Nino provides 18 months of influence then we have both 2014 and 15' setting new global temp records?
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Apr 15, 2014 12:05:27 GMT
blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/04/anthony-watts-is-confused-about-enso.htmlI see Wattsy is a tad twitched? I'll go all southern state Baptist on yer and say " Do unto others "........ or maybe "what goes around comes around........" Branded by his own misuse of a super Nino spike in 98' he now fears that science will do the same to show rapid warming over the period of the alledged 'hiatus' with some wag picking a low point since 98' and joining it to the temp spike to come ( the pathetic 2010, 9 month, Nino broke 98's record temps so what will this beastie do???)and saying " look at the rate of increase"..... As it is if Nino provides 18 months of influence then we have both 2014 and 15' setting new global temp records? Hi Graywolf, You should probably check your link out, it now begins with... "Update - see below for how it's sometimes me who makes a fool of myself!" Dude, are you and your fellow Warmie's EVER going to wake up and smell what you are shoveling? Or Projection much? If the sort of drivel I read at HotWhopper is where you get your information, I pity you.
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