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Post by sigurdur on Apr 15, 2014 12:06:38 GMT
Lets get to an El Nino first.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 15, 2014 12:50:39 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 15, 2014 12:55:03 GMT
blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/04/anthony-watts-is-confused-about-enso.htmlI see Wattsy is a tad twitched? I'll go all southern state Baptist on yer and say " Do unto others "........ or maybe "what goes around comes around........" Branded by his own misuse of a super Nino spike in 98' he now fears that science will do the same to show rapid warming over the period of the alledged 'hiatus' with some wag picking a low point since 98' and joining it to the temp spike to come ( the pathetic 2010, 9 month, Nino broke 98's record temps so what will this beastie do???)and saying " look at the rate of increase"..... As it is if Nino provides 18 months of influence then we have both 2014 and 15' setting new global temp records? Graywolf: I always find your posts interesting, however, the link you provided isn't in this case. Gosh feller, do some basic trend lines. We warmed faster in the 1900-1950 time period than we did in the 1950-2000 time period. Are we NOT close to an MIS-11 orbit? Are we at least within the temp boundaries of the Holocene? This worrying about a short term trend is unbelievable. CO2 looks to be actually COOLING us off, rather than warming us up. And I will say again, the ocean appears to be eating this potential El Nino and not even burping. A repeat of 2012?
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Post by icefisher on Apr 15, 2014 14:36:15 GMT
blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/04/anthony-watts-is-confused-about-enso.htmlI see Wattsy is a tad twitched? I'll go all southern state Baptist on yer and say " Do unto others "........ or maybe "what goes around comes around........" Branded by his own misuse of a super Nino spike in 98' he now fears that science will do the same to show rapid warming over the period of the alledged 'hiatus' with some wag picking a low point since 98' and joining it to the temp spike to come ( the pathetic 2010, 9 month, Nino broke 98's record temps so what will this beastie do???)and saying " look at the rate of increase"..... As it is if Nino provides 18 months of influence then we have both 2014 and 15' setting new global temp records? Records are made to be broken Graywolf. Nothing unusual about that. The 1998 El Nino peak was only one year so it has basically very little effect on the temperature anomaly slope in a 17 year record. In fact, this is why Dr Ben Santer insisted on 17 years as being the minimum period upon which to calculate a warming/cooling slope. Unfortunately, you might be having wet dreams over the idea of 2 consecutive years of record temperatures but it might be a good idea of getting one first to demonstrate that global heat content is still sufficient to break records. Such a demonstration would clearly allow for Sigurdur to breathe a bit easier. Nobody has clue one as to what is happening on the bottom of the ocean if the missing heat is gathering there or if its cooling like an SOB from massive amounts of supercooled brines pouring to the bottom of the ocean as a result of greater ice fluctuation leaving "hot ice" at the surface. We might have to go back to 1945, pre-ENSO, to see what a "super" La Nina looks like. On the 72 year astrometeorologist scale that should be "due" in 2017. The Enso oscillation may cause that to vary some but with 2017 looking like a good candidate for the beginning of a plunge to solar minimum it might be good to go on a super La Nina. But again when we are completely ignorant of global heat content conditions there may be no way of avoiding being blindsided.
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anse
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 62
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Post by anse on Apr 15, 2014 19:33:50 GMT
Posted by Astromet on May 8 and 9, 2013 (thread "EL NINO/LA NINA 2012-2013"):
"Again, according to my long-range ENSO climate outlook, there will not be another true El Nino or La Nina for many years. We won't see the next ENSO until 2021-2022."
"We have awhile before the next real ENSO, and that one will feature a major La Nina. It will turn very cold by 2020, and into 2021-2022 before we see some easing of that ENSO."
Depending on the definition of what a true El Niño or La Niña is, it´s however looking like this prediction is becoming more and more likely, having in mind what is going on at the moment.
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Post by icefisher on Apr 15, 2014 22:05:38 GMT
Posted by Astromet on May 8 and 9, 2013 (thread "EL NINO/LA NINA 2012-2013"): "Again, according to my long-range ENSO climate outlook, there will not be another true El Nino or La Nina for many years. We won't see the next ENSO until 2021-2022." "We have awhile before the next real ENSO, and that one will feature a major La Nina. It will turn very cold by 2020, and into 2021-2022 before we see some easing of that ENSO." Depending on the definition of what a true El Niño or La Niña is, it´s however looking like this prediction is becoming more and more likely, having in mind what is going on at the moment. Thats a pretty bold prediction! Going beyond 2020 would call for a major record breaking event, essentially shattering all the ENSO hiatus gaps for both cold and warm ENSO phases. I probably misrepresented Astromet's 72 year cycle as beginning in 1945, but I suspect there must have been a La Nina in that year given the big drop in temperature of the instrument record. Of course if this El Nino does not develop and score El Nino conditions by JJA we will have a record setting event. We had a water push this winter, here in Socal, like an El Nino but its since faded and we are at pretty seasonable water temperatures right now.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 16, 2014 0:39:24 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 16, 2014 1:38:38 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 16, 2014 14:12:31 GMT
The plume of cooler water off the coast of South America appears to be weakening.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 16, 2014 23:35:31 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 17, 2014 21:08:22 GMT
30 day SOI almost flat even now. Come on.....fall you dang thing!!!!!! The timing of this is all screwed up. Flat out just screwed up. Looks more and more like the wad will be blown before its time. Now, we have purple on the west coast of South America. Where in the hell is all this cold water coming from? ? Looks like the oceans didn't get Hansen's memo that they are suppose to boil.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 17, 2014 21:39:50 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Apr 17, 2014 22:14:58 GMT
The Cliff Mass blog is spot on.
This is not evolving anything like 1997-8 El Nino. More like 2004-5 or 2009-10, except there is colder water in Nino 1+2 on the south American west coast.
Whats happening now is the cold portion of the Kelvin wave is underway and it will take 2 to 4 months for that to pass. It will be probably July before we have a good idea of what is going to happen as exemplified in the Cliff Mass graphs on modeling skill for ENSO.
The hot water that has everybody in a tizzy is a condition necessary for a super event but not a condition sufficient. The big La Nina of 1999-2001 was attributed to a reaction to the super El Nino of 1997-98. Its reasonable to assume that the warm water we are currently seeing is mostly a response to the double La Nina of 2010-11 and 2011-12 followed by a couple years of relatively cold neutral conditions with no relief that without much more cooling would have provided a quadruple peak La Nina.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 18, 2014 2:17:32 GMT
Know what I am finding interesting?
The blogosphere is full of "Super El Nino" forecasts. The hype is unbelievable actually.
I hope we get rewarded with at least a "normal" El Nino.
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Post by graywolf on Apr 18, 2014 10:22:36 GMT
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