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Post by sigurdur on Apr 24, 2014 13:25:53 GMT
Forecast skill at this time of year is very poor. Lots of folks hoping for a El Nino for differing reasons. My reason is for the benefit to Ag, others want the global temp to increase. Funny tho, how those who are worrying about a global temp increase are cheering for a El Nino so that it warms up again. Wasn't the memo warming is bad?
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Apr 24, 2014 18:27:20 GMT
4rth hottest March on record??? I missed that little gem, when did that happen? Now I did hear that Temperature ADJUSTMENTS were the highest on record, but wow, up is down, warm is cold and lies will set you free, or something like that. I wonder if anyone notices that one of the "Warmest Marches Evah" was not warm where they live. My question is, if the kelvin wave is so big and warm, and the trade winds are favorable for the formation of an El Nino why does it look to me like this one is in the early stages of failure to launch? The SOI is not looking good... To have a significant El Nino, the heat has to make it to Nino region 1, or the trade winds go back to doing what always do when things settle down in three months, blow West. (An El Nino Modoki We get an El Nino Modoki and a severe winter for the Eastern U.S.... again. P.S. Oh and if March was soooo hot, why is there more ice then ever?
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Apr 24, 2014 18:28:17 GMT
4rth hottest March on record??? I missed that little gem, when did that happen? Now I did hear that Temperature ADJUSTMENTS were the highest on record, but wow, up is down, warm is cold and lies will set you free, or something like that. I wonder if anyone notices that one of the "Warmest Marches Evah" was not warm where they live. My question is, if the kelvin wave is so big and warm, and the trade winds are favorable for the formation of an El Nino why does it look to me like this one is in the early stages of failure to launch? The SOI is not looking good... To have a significant El Nino, the heat has to make it to Nino region 1, or the trade winds go back to doing what always do when things settle down in three months, blow West. (An El Nino Modoki.) We get an El Nino Modoki and a severe winter for the Eastern U.S.... again. P.S. Oh and if March was soooo hot, why is there more ice then ever?
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birder
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 223
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Post by birder on Apr 25, 2014 21:03:59 GMT
It says that in the UK there will be no noticeable change, big deal.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 26, 2014 18:13:31 GMT
The noticeable change in the UK may be the price of food dropping.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 27, 2014 1:58:55 GMT
I don't think so Sig, I think the price of food will go up. Unless this El Nino year is different than the majority of past El Nino years, AG production in the US screams upward. Warmer temps and timely rains, in fact the potential for a bit too much rain, in the heart of the crop growing areas is the rule. The year following, there is a potential for drought, but it is only a 35% chance. Australia usually dries out, but so far this year that hasn't happened. Brazil, Argentina are about done harvesting another record crop. World stocks just seem to keep increasing. The grain markets in the USA, which is the worlds bell weather of price, have declined 25-40% in the past year because of burdensome supplies. Hence, why I think Birdie may eat cheap.
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Post by graywolf on Apr 27, 2014 11:51:12 GMT
I do enjoy the N.I.M.B.Y. take on global climate! We get it over here when we have a chilly winter or late cold snap ( like March 2013)..... it certainly highlights a posters mindset!
The KW is mow surfacing every faster off Peru, quashing the cold anoms there, and it looks likely that we have another tropical storm brewing just in time to add into the MJO?
As for the SOI.... if folk look at the surface pressure plot they'll note a localised low pressure area near to Darwin which has skewed figures over the past few days ( popping up low positive numbers)... you just have to be careful with the index when you have localised forcings of the numbers!
With the increase in SST's off Peru the past three Days I'd expect to see the El nino begin to appear.....sadly we still need the walker hadly cells to come on board and that looks to be a number of weeks away yet?
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 27, 2014 15:54:23 GMT
Thanks Gray wolf. That is why I say the timing is screwed up.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 27, 2014 18:23:04 GMT
Code: During the last one, record production in the USA of all crops.
But yes, too much of anything can be a bad thing.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 27, 2014 18:24:56 GMT
A warm Kelvin wave is usually followed by a cold Kelvin wave, in regards to ocean Kelvin waves.
What I am finding troublesome, is, will the cool Kelvin overcome the current warm Kelvin?
I want an El Nino so badly that I can taste it, as the normal course of events would be adding to the worlds long term food supply.
Of course, selfish reasons as well. I would have a good crop to boot.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 28, 2014 6:09:22 GMT
I don't wish that type of river on anyone. Not even the nuts in California.
But it is an event with some periodicity, which is being totally ignored.
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Post by icefisher on Apr 28, 2014 6:33:38 GMT
Pretty hard to match up a flood event that occurred in 1861-2 to ENSO where records have only been in existence since 1950. Its also pretty hard to talk about megadamages from such a storm in 2014. California since 1862 has spent a few billion dollars on water storage facilities and flood control most in the last half century. It would take a helluva alot rain just to fill the reservoirs. Worrying about too much of a good thing is probably about as remote from anybody's concerns around here as it could get. We have so many dry lakes in southern California that got dried up because of diverting water down pipes and aquaducts it would almost take a biblical flood to just fill those up. Witness that big damaging floods in California is pretty much missing during all the recorded super El Ninos. We certainly could have a damaging flood but its pretty hard to see enough rain to substantially damage California agriculture, so many naturally dry areas would benefit so hugely from excess rainfall stored in the reservoirs that any damage from a major storm would be more than compensated for. You have to keep in mind that the climate in California insulates agriculture from disaster. Unlike North Dakota with their short growing season any crop that gets hurt in a flood will just be replanted in our year round growing season. In recent decades water rationing has prevented year round growing. You drive through the central valley and you will see a lot of political signs that basically say give this land some water and we will grow food and those signs have been up for a lot of years. We currently have a drought but before the drought a lot of water was being reallocated back to nature at the expense of previously expanded agriculture so in effect we have been experiencing a political water drought here for decades. The recent La Ninas have just been making the drought deeper.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 28, 2014 6:41:56 GMT
Icefisher: Even with the dams etc, the normal 100-200 year flood would cause huge problems. You folks build houses on the sides of hills, and the hills don't defy gravity.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 28, 2014 14:56:26 GMT
Code: I am glad that you did speak up about the price of food. To me, it is always an important item for everyone.
I very much enjoy our interactions, you help me think, as do most on this board.
And to me, that is an excellent thing.
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Post by icefisher on Apr 28, 2014 15:55:47 GMT
Icefisher: Even with the dams etc, the normal 100-200 year flood would cause huge problems. You folks build houses on the sides of hills, and the hills don't defy gravity. Even that is not a huge issue. We have a few areas susceptible to mudslides but the mountains on the west coast tend to not have much mud on them. They are young as far as mountains go so they tend to be rocky. Some areas are susceptible to slippage and that is as likely to occur from septic tanks and extended periods of non-flooding precipitation as much as from flooding. Finally I did not say a major flood would not cause major problems. What I said was a lot of rain and flooding would, if the precipitation makes it to the mountains (and the scenario of "an atmospheric river" of water vapor extending thousands of miles certainly would) would almost certainly have net beneficial effects to agriculture. That said it is not intended to be a measure of the costs of lives and homes from flood waters that jump their channels. Thats immeasurable. But it was my perception this thread was about the cost of food. If California has rain I expect the net effect will exert downward pressure on food prices and that is rain at any known scale. Clearly the rain of 1861-2 exerted upward pressure on food prices but I think/believe that is something only of the past. That of course is a "net" figure over the course of a period of time say a 3 year smoothed average. A big rainstorm could have some temporary effects on food prices but as the benefits of full containment reservoirs were realized it would in my view almost certainly turn positive. California has water projects at a level unknown to I think the rest of the nation and probably the world. In fact, I recall making a post I think last year to you about the Missouri river drainage considering some water projects being something that would be beneficial to North Dakota agriculture and could aid your state in weathering La Nina. While I am not sure of which century, seems most likely to become the "new normal". But I sort of doubt its going to help with glaciation. . . .something I am sure you worry about as much as us coastal inhabitants worry about rising sea level. Yeah it might happen but its a remote and likely very distant threat. But do not take any of the above as any kind of suggestion that we not work towards the prevention of floods as major rainstorms like anywhere is going to take a toll on human lives. Our system of water projects is not perfect and there are certainly some major holes in it, particularly to coastal communities which remain susceptible to gully washers. The water projects are focused on upstream containment, so that serves to provide protection from the major and extensive flood events but does not help for high levels of precipitation near the point where it falls. For the larger compounded extended flood event where heavy local rain combines with huge amounts of mountain runoff I see almost daily that the commitment to continue to build, maintain, and improve water projects, something that continues with as much zeal as ever to this day to prevent that water from reaching the sea (except of course a robust battle over enough reaching the sea to support anadromous fish.)
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