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Post by duwayne on May 2, 2014 15:27:16 GMT
Icefisher says that the warming off Peru is not caused by positive or warm upwelling and I agree. Here's an animation (if it works) of the recent warming of the waters (not the just the surface water) in the equatorial Pacific which shows the higher temperature anomalies progressing from west to east. If the animation doesn't work, try going directly to the link here. If the animation still doesn't work, bookmark the link www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xy/movie.h300.gif and try it later.
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Post by sigurdur on May 2, 2014 15:56:04 GMT
Yes and no, in my opinion. There is a constant upwelling off the coast of Peru/Ecuador. When the ocean sloshes back east, it carries the heat pushed to the west via the Trades. The depth of the warmth is known to be in excess of 300 meters. The mixing of the warmer water with the colder deeper upwelling allows the heat to be expressed. The volume of the abnormally warm water overcomes the cooler temps, creating the El Nino effect. To me, it is combination of surface, plus subsurface heat. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peru_Current
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Post by sigurdur on May 5, 2014 12:56:15 GMT
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Post by flearider on May 5, 2014 23:32:31 GMT
Icefisher says that the warming off Peru is not caused by positive or warm upwelling and I agree. Here's an animation (if it works) of the recent warming of the waters (not the just the surface water) in the equatorial Pacific which shows the higher temperature anomalies progressing from west to east. If the animation doesn't work, try going directly to the link here. If the animation still doesn't work, bookmark the link www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xy/movie.h300.gif and try it later. is that the water warming or is that warm water rushing back in where cold has been ? there was a big cold rush on over the summer s/h pushing warm water out .. what I'm trying to say is this warm will mix with what cold is left and dissipate .. does this still mean it's an el nino ? I'm also thinking this will again happen next yr but no recovery as the Antarctic will prob hit another all time high for ice surface area .maybe 20k ice area ..and again the melt will push even more cold over to the n/h ..
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Post by sigurdur on May 6, 2014 1:01:58 GMT
flearider: The water is sloshing back East, overcoming the effect of the Humbolt current.
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Post by glennkoks on May 6, 2014 1:05:01 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on May 6, 2014 1:51:34 GMT
Even tho a serious lack, in Texas history this would not be exceptional.
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Post by sigurdur on May 6, 2014 1:52:44 GMT
Looks to me like we are learning a lot during this hiatus
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Post by flearider on May 6, 2014 2:01:53 GMT
flearider: The water is sloshing back East, overcoming the effect of the Humbolt current. but it's not overcoming it .. if you look all that heat from asia/austrailia comes across and gets gobbled up by the cold another week there wont be any left .. or am I missing something ? for an el nino the heat has to stay ?
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Post by sigurdur on May 6, 2014 2:57:34 GMT
flearider: The water is sloshing back East, overcoming the effect of the Humbolt current. but it's not overcoming it .. if you look all that heat from asia/austrailia comes across and gets gobbled up by the cold another week there wont be any left .. or am I missing something ? for an el nino the heat has to stay ? Now you understand why I said the timing is all screwed up.
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Post by douglavers on May 6, 2014 11:01:32 GMT
Melbourne & South_Eastern Australia are cold & wet. It does not feel in the least bit like an El Nino.
When I first came to Australia in 81/2, it basically did not rain for 8 months in Melbourne & surrounds. The town nearly ran out of water.
Having said that, the SOI just went very negative.[Apparently conducive to El Nino].
However, I have the awful feeling that there are no good precedents in the 19/20/21 Centuries for what the sun is now doing. We may be forecasting in unknown territory.
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Post by nautonnier on May 6, 2014 13:28:57 GMT
Doug, I think that you may be right. One of the drivers of the El Nino is lack of cloud leading to significant ocean warming in the equatorial water with light if anything westerly winds. But if the Sun UV and other frequencies that penetrate into the ocean to warm it are not as strong then some of the fuel for the El Nino is missing. With chaotic systems only a small change in variables can lead to a totally different result. I do note that there are large numbers of climate scientists waving betting slips and cheering the putative El Nino on... We shall see.
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Post by glennkoks on May 7, 2014 3:32:43 GMT
Even tho a serious lack, in Texas history this would not be exceptional. I talked to an old rancher today and asked him just that. How does this drought compare to the one in the mid 1950's or even Dust Bowl era? He said not as exceptional but this one now in it's eighth year and has been longer in duration. Looking at reservoir and lake levels going into the driest part of the year we could hit uncharted territory as far as severity goes by September when relief usually comes from the tropics. It's only May 6th and cracks in the ground look like they would in a dry August in the Houston area.
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Post by sigurdur on May 7, 2014 4:07:13 GMT
Even tho a serious lack, in Texas history this would not be exceptional. I talked to an old rancher today and asked him just that. How does this drought compare to the one in the mid 1950's or even Dust Bowl era? He said not as exceptional but this one now in it's eighth year and has been longer in duration. Looking at reservoir and lake levels going into the driest part of the year we could hit uncharted territory as far as severity goes by September when relief usually comes from the tropics. It's only May 6th and cracks in the ground look like they would in a dry August in the Houston area. When I was looking at hydrological cycles in ND, I read some information about Texas as well. Texas seems to be at the bottom tip of a central corridor pattern. It seems the pattern also oscillates as the result of solar signals. The present southern central corridor drought may last another 20-30 years if it is mimicking the 1700's time frame. I don't remember the specifics but if you do a Google scholar search you could probably find more information. During the Maunder Minn if my memory is correct there was almost a century of drought.
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Post by neilhamp on May 7, 2014 6:42:10 GMT
ENSO Wrap-up in Australia www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ seems increasingly confident of pending El Nino The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, with large warm anomalies in the ocean sub-surface (5-day values up to +6 °C) and increasingly warm sea surface temperatures. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level. For El Niño to be established and maintained, coupling needs to occur between the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean, evident by further and persistent weakening of the trade winds and a consistent increase in cloudiness near the Date Line. These atmospheric characteristics of El Niño are forecast to become evident over the coming months. They even provide a tracker www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/tracker/
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