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Post by slh1234 on Jul 10, 2014 13:23:47 GMT
Typhoon Neoguri paid us a little visit yesterday and last night. I don't know what kind of influence the Nino cycle really has on Pacific typhoons or cyclones, but since Typhoons/hurricanes/cyclones are so often mentioned by the warming folks, I take an interest. Actually, I also LOVE storms (being someone who grew up in Tornado alley where they have the most spectacular thunderstorms ... storms the likes of which I have never seen anywhere else). We didn't get the full force of Neoguri in Busan, but we got enough of it (especially with the surge) to be impressive . I have a view of the sea from my condo, and also, since I live on the 53rd floor of a 66 story building that sits on a point overlooking the sea, I wasn't sure what it would feel like when those high winds hit us. At this point, I'll have to say that any sway in the building can't be seen on pictures suspended along the walls, on glasses of liquid sitting on the desk, or anything else I can see, and it certainly isn't perceptible inside the house. But back to that sea view ... when I lived in this part of the world before, I didn't have that kind of view, but I did get a couple of chances to see the sea from about a mile away as a couple of typhoons blew in. On this one, we didn't get the full force of the typhoon, but we got one heckuva storm surge, and I was in perfect position to see it ... so perfect, in fact, that I left he house to go get closer. I took lots of pictures with my phone camera, too (didn't want to risk my good camera), and managed to walk on some of the slightly sheltered from the wind walks along the seashore where I was sure to get wet, but had good enough handholds to not really be in danger of being blown away or washed away. There were some spots where I wouldn't go, but from the spots I thought were relatively safe, I got to be part of one heckuva good surge with absolutely AWESOME waves crashing the rocky shores ... I remember some time back someone posted a storm tracker picture from one of the hurricanes that hit the US that showed the difference in sea temperature before and after the hurrican passed by, and it illustrated how much heat a storm like that lifted out of the upper levels of the ocean. I haven't been able to find such imagery of Neoguri, but I'd love to see it if someone knows where to find it. Meanwhile, does the Nino cycle have any effect on the Typhoons/Cyclones in the Pacific?
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 10, 2014 18:07:05 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jul 10, 2014 22:25:55 GMT
slh1234, how about a few pictures?
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Post by slh1234 on Jul 11, 2014 13:28:52 GMT
slh1234, how about a few pictures? Sure. Here are a few I snapped. First one I took is because I have never seen the waves breaking this far out. Unfortunately, there is nothing in this picture to give you perspective, but the waves breaking here were HUGE. There was another place even farther out with waves breaking even higher, but as I said, I didn't want to risk my good camera, and my phone camera just couldn't reach out far enough and bring the farther one in. All I can do is estimate on this one, and I would estimate the waves were regularly about 10' high as they broke here, with the occasional wave about 20' high in this area: In some places, the waves were crashing over the seawall high enough with enough force I didn't want to risk going there. I don't mind getting wet, but some things are just stupid . That picture was taken from a safe spot behind the seawall in front of our condo. The next is a series following one wave as it crashes the rocks. The picture is taken while I stand on Haeundae beach. The tide is several feet higher than normal as the waves are almost reaching the steps on the beach. Normally, at high tide, the highest waves don't reach past the third pine tree you can see on the wall on the right. In the "V" shaped groove in the rocks on the right, the little dark spot is the top of the statue of the "Little Mermaid of Haeundae," and I'll show that from a different angle in a moment. For convenience, her name is Princess Hwang Ok, so I'll call her that in the future. For perspective on this particular wave, look at the wall on the right, and find the man in the red shirt. He's standing just where the wall meets the rock as the walkway continues up the hillside. The wave sweeps over Princess Hwang Ok's head: And crashes over the top of the rocks: From there, I walked up the walkway you can see in the pictures above to get another angle on Princess Hwang Ok. Unfortunately, the waves aren't always cooperative, and I was caught looking back and forth between two spots with impressive waves ... and I didn't catch another wave of the magnitude of the one above that completely washed over Princess Hwang Ok's head. Still the wave I caught clearly from here was pretty impressive. I don't know for sure how tall this statue is, but she is quite a bit larger than a person: As one wave goes out: And as one came in ... as you can see, the one I caught isn't nearly as large as the one I caught from the beach that completely swept over her head. On a little farther along the walkway, I caught a good wave or two hitting the shore. For perspective on these rocks and this wave, look on the right and find the people on the walkway. one is wearing a white shirt. Notice also that those people are closer to me than the rocks and the wave are in the first two. And as the wave crashes over the rock, the water runs off the rock, and you can see the next wave about to hit behind those same rocks ... and notice that wave hasn't broken yet ... and is still well behind that rock, and STILL, look how it compares to the people on the walkway on the right that are much closer to me. I took over 300 pictures on my cell phone while I was out there. I took a couple of videos, too, but the wind was high enough, and my arms were unbraced when I tried the videos, so the videos are so shaky, I couldn't make them what I thought was watchable. I was trying to catch some things like where that first wave was breaking because the perspective comes through better on video than on a still picture ... and I don't have to take 30 pictures to catch one wave at the right place and then have it turn out blurry . But that is a few of the pictures I was able to catch (relatively) clearly from the walk around the area where I live as Typhoon Neoguri was passing close by. BTW, a little bit of trivia I learned ... several species of crabs, and several other species of small sea creatures come out of the rocks and manmade "jacks" and take shelter on the landward side of the seawall during a storm like this. Looking at what was happening on the seaward side, I can't say I blame them . If a person wanted, they probably could have picked up buckets of crabs along the seawall during the time I was in that area.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 11, 2014 23:13:49 GMT
Thanks slh1234; I know the problem with getting the shutter open at "just the right time" .... almost every time I try to take animal pictures, they turn their rear ends to me. I did get a good one of a headless sheep though ....
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 12, 2014 0:46:04 GMT
Reminds me of Guam slh. Normally tranquil, but when storms were near by, the waves would get huge. Being in the Marrianas Trench, a lot of water was moving when it found that little mountain top and had to go around.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 14, 2014 19:30:07 GMT
The gauntlet is down! NOAA ENSO watch through its outside academic controller IRI/CPC at Columbia University has only shown ENSO predictive skill through the spring predictability barrier of less than a month. However its now mid July into the zone where NOAA and/or IRI claims statistically strong success in predicting ENSO over their 9 month long predictability window. What is notable is despite many ENSO science specialists in Peru and Australia expressing doubts about the predicted upcoming El Nino, IRI/CPC and NOAA have maintained strong resolve, actually upping the odds of an El Nino for this summer by a few percentage points. The odds by winter remained at the 78% level. Interestingly though La Nina gained a few points also while neutral became less likely. LOL! So it appears IRI/CPC is betting on volatility and our local astrologist is going for neutral. Bottom line is now NOAA has some skin in the game. Previous to now they acknowledged their futility in longterm predictions of ENSO but now they are into the region where they think they have some skill. Of course Lisa Goddard who is the Director IRI isn't into ocean oscillations, she holds to the theory of CAGW and thus ENSO is a product of continuing warming with ever increasing odds of El Ninos as touted by her fellow adjunct professor at Columbia University James E Hansen. We have the past 6 years increasingly been seeing IRI/CPC and thus NOAA predictions fail on the spike of a cool northeastern Pacific ocean that has been dominating (in a climate length context, noting the northeastern Pacific is currently warm). While this phenomena in the Pacific was actually first identified by NOAA scientists it understandably has not been universally adopted since it runs against the alarmist message and it might be a bit difficult for Columbia University to actually start physically looking at ocean currents in the Pacific since they are situated on the wrong coast. If indeed its a multidecadal oscillation (whatever the source, astrological or not) that determines the frequency of El Nino, El Ninos should not again become frequent (in climate terms) until at least 2040 or so as they were not frequent and powerful previously (noting the record only goes back to 1950) until about 1982. Of course it could be longer, especially if as some space scientists favor that we may be entering a Maunder-like minimum. I am liking more and more the astrological explanation. First being an ocean guy I am very familiar with tides. Tides rise and fall like a modulated sine wave. The wave is modulated by two primary influences the sun and the moon. Its expected that at the top of a wave you have a relatively flat period, which is exactly what we have been going through climate wise for the past 17 years or so. If the period of this wave is roughly as demonstrated historically the world temperature record, namely about 66 years for a full cycle, we should be near to the time that it begins cooling rapidly. Astromet has suggested a longer period which is completely consistent with a modulated sine wave. The periods between waves above with the tides can vary considerably. I never calculated it but I would guess a 30% time variant (about 1 hour out of 6 in two directions). I could be off on that percentage by a good bit but I do see large time differences between two phases of a tide that normally take about 6 hours. (note: in the chart the first dark blue phase is about 6 1/2 hours long and the following phase is about 5 1/2 hours) While the rotation of the earth and the orbit of the moon do not change a lot, the tides that result do because of ever changing zeniths and nadirs in relative position between the sun and the moon. Stuff I am sure Astromet is familiar with in his calculations. Therefore the discrepancy between the historical temperature record and Astromet does not bother me in the least but I would call it almost certainly a usual situation. I don't know how he arrived at 72 years or if that is simply the current cycle or an average I am not sure; but would be interested in hearing some details on that. We live in interesting times. Now for a 100 years the direction of the sun and CO2 have been in the same direction. In late 2006 I read an article about unusual changes in the sun and that the stage appeared to being set for the first time in a longtime for a fundamental change in direction the primary alternate theory of climate change. Fact is as much as some want to suppress the evidence the planet appears to be right on track with the alternate theory much to the chagrin of the power brokers of the theory that is rapidly derailing. natural variation appears well poised to deflate the alarmist balloons. It may take a bit longer to recognize the source, unless of course in ten years we find ourselves with no sunspots or a bond event occurs.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 15, 2014 0:38:15 GMT
The sea surface temp around Alaska/Siberia is warmer than normal. And that warmth is far enough north to be exiting the barn. I won't say both doors are open, but one is open and the other about 1/2 way open.
We are losing heat FAST.
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Post by hrizzo on Jul 15, 2014 7:52:02 GMT
Thanks slh1234; I know the problem with getting the shutter open at "just the right time" .... almost every time I try to take animal pictures, they turn their rear ends to me. I did get a good one of a headless sheep though .... A trick from an old photographer (when machines were mechanical) is to press the button when the movement begins (like when a smile is beginning to form), not when it is fully formed. The problem with electronic machines is that they have a slower response, so you must press the button even a fraction of a second before. In principle, never take the photo when everything is "perfect"; you will never get it.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 15, 2014 16:30:05 GMT
A very large school of anchovies off San Diego, as the fish like cool water, I found this interesting. "Millions of anchovies amass off La Jolla" A huge school of anchovy amassed near Scripps Pier in La Jolla Tuesday and few graduate students snorkeling in ocean got a unique underwater view. Students from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego used a GoPro camera to capture video of the anchovy school off the coast of San Diego. “Multimillions” of the finger-sized fishes prized on pizzas and in animal feed — also called Northern anchovy — created a dark-blue band in shallow waters just off the coast when first spotted Monday. Scripps scientists say they haven’t seen such an aggregation in more than 30 years, but were unclear why the large school moved into shallow waters off the coast. simple answer! 50 years ago this phenomena was routine. probably all the scientists the media talked to were in diapers then. we have by my reckoning a lot more of this in store.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 15, 2014 18:06:12 GMT
Just a little more evidence that nature has cycles. The PDO flips, the Pacific cools, the anchovies return in numbers not seen since . . . the last cold PDO. I guess it could be coincidence. It is amusing that it causes surprise.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 16, 2014 0:04:03 GMT
The summer forecast is driven by the outside models.
The fact is IRI/CPC has only called 3 of the last 9 ENSO events in July! They made the wrong call on 6 of them! The only two El Ninos they got it were both showing spring warming. The two El Ninos they missed, one was showing warming and the other was showing neutral variation. They only called one La Nina correctly and the spring record showed cooling. The 4 La Ninas they missed 2 were showing spring warming and 2 spring cooling.
I have no idea how they can claim skill out of that record. Must be they are using academic statistics.
Fact is IRI/CPC has only been in this game for 12 years and they got their first attempt correct in 2002 before the oceans peaked its temperature in 2003. Since then they are 3 of 8 events. Spring warming has failed to produce an El Nino 4 out of 6 times while producing 2 La Ninas (main sign of the cold ocean oscillation?) Its been especially bad in recent years as the sun has made a run to a weak maximum.
The index has not been in El Nino territory on a weekly basis since May. We are now half way through the JJA season with no sign of cooling below the EL Nino threshold and hardly a sign of a turn around beyond a slight warming in ENSO region 4 indicative of normal kelvin wave activity.
If this El Nino does not develop its going to be very difficult for the modelers to explain why. I tend to think thats why they are holding to their guns in the face of adversity and many ENSO scientists not tied to IRI are jumping ship.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2014 0:06:21 GMT
This El Nino is already done. The monsoons have returned to India.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 16, 2014 2:26:27 GMT
This El Nino is already done. The monsoons have returned to India. If El Nino is really "done". One has to give a credit to Astromet who was very adamant that this was not going amount to much... At a time when most were talking "super nino"
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2014 2:46:57 GMT
This El Nino is already done. The monsoons have returned to India. If El Nino is really "done". One has to give a credit to Astromet who was very adamant that this was not going amount to much... At a time when most were talking "super nino" There is yet no atmospheric coupling, which normally happens. The coupling actually drives the formation of a beginning El Nino. Didn't happen this year. Aussie is getting rain, Monsoons are happening. The big K wave earlier didn't contain enough energy to tip the balance. We may still have a very very minor one, but it will be in name only. Time running out for this year.
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