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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2014 18:03:36 GMT
I have to agree with Trenbeth on this one. Also, El Nino and La Nina are new to climate science just like the PDO is new.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 12, 2014 20:45:19 GMT
Looks like both MJO and two Cyclones aiding the progression of the KW by this time next week? If we see another couple of favourable Cyclones before April is out then a Super looks properly on the cards.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2014 21:41:53 GMT
Looks like both MJO and two Cyclones aiding the progression of the KW by this time next week? If we see another couple of favourable Cyclones before April is out then a Super looks properly on the cards. I hope so, I most certainly hope so. We need to get temps up to liveable levels, at least for a short while. The earth was doing so sooooooooo much better during the Holocene Optimum. We can't get there fast enough!
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2014 22:04:53 GMT
Graywolf: Looked at the Cyclones, etc...looked at sea temps from last year verses this year.
And.......I still don't see much of an El Nino coming.
But I hope what you are seeing is correct.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2014 22:22:25 GMT
In case some folks don't know what Graywolf and I are talking about, this short video gives on a basic understanding. wn.com/kelvin_wave
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Post by icefisher on Mar 13, 2014 0:06:58 GMT
Well lets put it this way. . . .if by the end of the year have not already had 5 consecutive overlapping three month seasons of El Nino level anomalies, nature will have induced an unprecedented break in El Nino activity.
The current record break between El Ninos stands at 50 months.
Officially we are currently at 44 months and for all intents and purposes there is very little chance we will not reach at least 46 months as we are already half way through the 46th overlapping 3 month season with a rather strong negative value still holding. (-.4)
So if by Jun/Jul/Aug the ONI three month average is still below the El Nino threshold, a record break in El Nino activity will have occurred.
Further even if by Jun/Jul/Aug the ONI three month average exceeds the El Nino threshold, it will still have to be maintained for 5 overlapping seaons to prevent an unprecedented break.
Looking at the IRI/CPC plume of ENSO prediction models there are only a few models predicting no record will be set.
The consensus position of the models is a record will be set.
That seems rather significant climate wise in itself. Any CAGW advocates care to try to tackle an explanation for that?
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2014 1:12:20 GMT
Good points Icefisher.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2014 1:14:09 GMT
But......along with those points, El Nino and La Nina were not recognized for such a long time that the actual record is short. There are a lot of reanalysis reconstructions, but I always take them for what they are worth.
Kinda like the PDO. IF it hadn't been for salmon, the AGW crowd would prob still be denying that cycle.
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Post by icefisher on Mar 13, 2014 3:04:05 GMT
But......along with those points, El Nino and La Nina were not recognized for such a long time that the actual record is short. There are a lot of reanalysis reconstructions, but I always take them for what they are worth. Kinda like the PDO. IF it hadn't been for salmon, the AGW crowd would prob still be denying that cycle. Using the word "unprecedented" is rather like. . . .uh. . . .a warmist! I have to admit. And most still do either deny the PDO or merely ignore it. To recognize it would be like dominoes, first they would have an explanation for the early 20th century warming and would then have no basis for denying it contributed greatly to the latter half 20th century warming. Decadal cycles are anathema to warmists. The entire case for unprecedented warming rests on a decadal rise in temperature starting in 1980 through 1997. Ben Santer's IPCC papers fingerprinting humans as the cause of warming have been the centerpiece science supporting IPCC conclusions regarding attribution, with Santer sitting in has head author. Its why Santer said cooling must stop for 17 years to be significant, its why now that that milestone has passed he as not again raised the bar. There is clear more at work than the PDO in our climate change but its hard to have any assurance that at least half of the warming attributed to humans by Santer's and the IPCC (actually maybe no difference on this topic between the two) is not attributable to natural causes.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2014 4:46:51 GMT
The cuurent warming is well within expectations. In fact, there should be a full 1.0C left in this sucker. Much above 1.0c then we have something to talk about.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2014 20:24:32 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2014 20:24:49 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2014 20:27:05 GMT
The world is watching...... Will this be a bust? Or will this downward trend in the SOI confirm that an El Nino might really show up this year? Does the decline in H2O vapor play a part in the response of the climate to actually drive an El Nino? So many questions and no answers....aggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2014 22:50:25 GMT
iri.columbia.edu/news/february-2014-climate-briefing-kelvin-waves-signal-potential-el-nino/The central and eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing borderline La Niña conditions, but many models are forecasting an El Niño to develop this (northern hemisphere) summer. Although scientists still don’t know the exact mechanism behind the Pacific’s transition from one state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to another, both statistical and dynamical models are predicting about a 45% chance for El Niño conditions six months from now.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2014 22:59:24 GMT
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