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Post by sigurdur on Mar 4, 2014 15:56:52 GMT
graywolf: I want an El Nino, but I still don't see one actually happening this year.
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Post by icefisher on Mar 4, 2014 17:46:07 GMT
Weekly update showing the warm pool, at depth, spreading east and the cyclone to the north of the equator driving weaterlies around the international date line. PDO region still showing the 'warm horse shoe' of PDO+ve ( and also throughout the seasonal forecast runs) so maybe even a PDO flip over the coming months ? Any more eqatorial cyclones in the run up to April looks likely to seal the nino deal? Its perfectly normal for the PDO index to slide over to the other side briefly in the middle of major cycles. That can be seen clearly in this chart. It would certainly be interesting if you actually had a methodology to estimate when it might slide over and stay there; but the fact is nobody is going to know it has done that for quite a few years after it happens. The only thing we have though is the fact its usual for an El Nino to show up occasionally even during the negative PDO and we here are all wondering when that might happen.
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Post by pidgey on Mar 4, 2014 18:12:36 GMT
If I were going to take a stab at answering this one, I'd be checking out the GLAAM's recent track record, but they've screwed up the presentation of the data a bit. I'm a'hopin' it'll come back to normal soon, but you just never know with those clowns. If the data doesn't support their projections... they kinda' like to mess it up for everybody, but that might be a tad tinfoil.
Pidgey
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 4, 2014 19:12:31 GMT
The world is still at the apex of a step change in temperature rise. It is well within the Holocene parameters, well below early Holocene parameters. Funny how it works, but I got used to a slightly warmer climate where I live. The reminder of a cooler climate this winter verses even a slightly warmer climate at this latitude makes life much more bearable.
I don't get to concerned about the "extreme" weather meme. It just doesn't wash, but makes great headlines and talking points. During warming phases the weather is not as variable as during cooling phases. That butterball thing I posted about past climate should be required reading for everyone, but few will actually take the time to read it.
If a new visitor has come to the board, it is on one of the pages somewhere.
Back to EL NINO, I have my fingers crossed that it will actually happen. A La Nina is good for me and is good for the world as Ag production rises, as a rule, during one of them.
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Post by karlox on Mar 5, 2014 7:50:36 GMT
The world is still at the apex of a step change in temperature rise. It is well within the Holocene parameters, well below early Holocene parameters. Funny how it works, but I got used to a slightly warmer climate where I live. The reminder of a cooler climate this winter verses even a slightly warmer climate at this latitude makes life much more bearable. I don't get to concerned about the "extreme" weather meme. It just doesn't wash, but makes great headlines and talking points. During warming phases the weather is not as variable as during cooling phases. That butterball thing I posted about past climate should be required reading for everyone, but few will actually take the time to read it. If a new visitor has come to the board, it is on one of the pages somewhere. Back to La Nina, I have my fingers crossed that it will actually happen. A La Nina is good for me and is good for the world as Ag production rises, as a rule, during one of them. Sigur, La Niña? (cold-negative phase?). I´d thought you preferred the opposite -EL NIÑO- but probably got it wrong...
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 5, 2014 8:21:51 GMT
The world is still at the apex of a step change in temperature rise. It is well within the Holocene parameters, well below early Holocene parameters. Funny how it works, but I got used to a slightly warmer climate where I live. The reminder of a cooler climate this winter verses even a slightly warmer climate at this latitude makes life much more bearable. I don't get to concerned about the "extreme" weather meme. It just doesn't wash, but makes great headlines and talking points. During warming phases the weather is not as variable as during cooling phases. That butterball thing I posted about past climate should be required reading for everyone, but few will actually take the time to read it. If a new visitor has come to the board, it is on one of the pages somewhere. Back to La Nina, I have my fingers crossed that it will actually happen. A La Nina is good for me and is good for the world as Ag production rises, as a rule, during one of them. Sigur, La Niña? (cold-negative phase?). I´d thought you preferred the opposite -EL NIÑO- but probably got it wrong... Thank you. It is now corrected.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 6, 2014 21:42:58 GMT
www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtmlSouthern Oscillation Index The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Dar
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 7, 2014 6:06:45 GMT
Tokyo agrees: . ENSO neutral conditions continued in the equatorial Pacific. . It is likely that ENSO neutral conditions will continue to the northern spring. In summer, there are equal chances for continuation of ENSO neutral conditions or development of El Niño conditions. Link: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.htmlIf it happens, I believe it's going to be weak.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 8, 2014 10:40:14 GMT
Why are folk wasting their time reporting on the subsiding Kelvin wave across Nino 2 and 1? This feature has travelled from nino 3 over the past months and is a 'dead' feature.
Folk need watch the current up-welling of warm as it travels to the east (IMHO)
Current cyclone activity is also feeding into the 'westerly bursts' pushing the wave further east each day. When it breaks surface folk will see Nino warmth suddenly appear at the surface. Had they watched the progression of the wave they'd have been expecting it!
If folk look to 97's 'Super' they'd note the super typhoon that helped the formation by streaming warmth east through April of that year.
With the wave already travelling I'd advise keeping a weather eye on cyclonic activity either side of the equator.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 8, 2014 18:35:26 GMT
I am still hoping for a Nino, but still can't see it happening.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 10, 2014 3:41:10 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Mar 11, 2014 20:57:44 GMT
B.O.M. are now going for Nino in the austral winter and MJO looks likely to be giving the Kelvin wave a good old kick from march 17th thru 24th. Is anyone still doubting the upcoming Nino?
The other thing of note is the spacings of the Kelvin waves with the next due to reinforce nino in autumn and the one after that set to drive it '~Super' in Jan 2015......
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2014 0:09:47 GMT
B.O.M. are now going for Nino in the austral winter and MJO looks likely to be giving the Kelvin wave a good old kick from march 17th thru 24th. Is anyone still doubting the upcoming Nino? The other thing of note is the spacings of the Kelvin waves with the next due to reinforce nino in autumn and the one after that set to drive it '~Super' in Jan 2015...... I am still having a hard time seeing it actually developing. If it does looks to be a minor one. again. ,I am hoping one develops.
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Post by icefisher on Mar 12, 2014 4:23:49 GMT
B.O.M. are now going for Nino in the austral winter and MJO looks likely to be giving the Kelvin wave a good old kick from march 17th thru 24th. Is anyone still doubting the upcoming Nino? The other thing of note is the spacings of the Kelvin waves with the next due to reinforce nino in autumn and the one after that set to drive it '~Super' in Jan 2015...... I am still having a hard time seeing it actually developing. If it does looks to be a minor one. again. ,I am hoping one develops. NWS appears to have taken down the archives for subsurface temp departures in the equatorial pacific so its hard to look at what is developing in relationship to past events. My recollection is the major El Ninos develop not out at 150w but next to the Peru coast in Regions 1 and 2. The major Modaki El Ninos tend to be further out from the coast as this Kelvin wave develops behind the subsurface warmth moving across the Pacific. Also current SSTs look more like March 1999 and March 2007 a few months before the big La Nina events than March 1997 or March 2009 a few months before the last two major El Nino events. www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.htmlGraywolf's Nino prognostication sounds a lot like one of his paleocrystic ice doom prognostications.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2014 5:49:33 GMT
On this one I hope he is correct. I may be missing something that he is seeing, which I hope I am.
But what I am observing is not pointing to a positive outcome.
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