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Post by Ratty on Aug 17, 2014 4:57:09 GMT
I have summarized the list of NW passage transits below Decade Sailing Motor Ice ****** Ships.. Ships Breakers 1950-59 0...... 0..... 4 1960-69 0...... 2..... 6 1970-79 3...... 4..... 3 1980-89 4...... 7..... 10 1990-99 4...... 16.... 19 2000-04 13..... 7..... 10 2005-09 22..... 8..... 5 2010-13 30..... 9..... 1 Looking at the number of sailing ships taking the trip since 2000 you can see why there were so many hopeful contenders this year Artic temperatures since 1900 are shown below I have also added the AMO index from 1900 - 2014 It has started its downward trend. If history repeats itself we should see Artic temperatures start to fall Good match. BTW, please have a look at your personal messages.
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 18, 2014 7:23:49 GMT
Those of us who thought they would not succeed should resist the temptation to say "I told you so" I couldn't even attempt what they were trying to do. It must be a very sad time for all on board.
Our stop at Beechey Island was tinged with sadness, not only because of the tragic events of all those years ago, but also by the decision to abandon our attempt to transit the Northwest Passage this summer. With the ice situation showing little improvement, even if a late transit may become possible, we could face the prospect of being unable to reach the Pacific before the seas started to ice up again. In such an eventuality the only solution would be to overwinter somewhere in Arctic Canada or Alaska, something that I was not prepared to do. It was therefore decided to turn around and sail back to Europe while the weather conditions in the Northern Atlantic are still favourable for our 2700 miles passage home.
The first response to my decision came from my son Ivan. I quote his words here, as they reflect exactly my own feelings:
“Seeing as there seems to be a 50/50 chance that the Northwest Passage won’t open this year, it may be for the best to turn back. This is something my cycling has taught me about being audacious: it’s better to have tried and possibly failed than not to try at all!”
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Post by Andrew on Aug 18, 2014 7:34:15 GMT
Those of us who thought they would not succeed should resist the temptation to say "I told you so" I couldn't even attempt what they were trying to do. It must be a very sad time for all on board. Our stop at Beechey Island was tinged with sadness, not only because of the tragic events of all those years ago, but also by the decision to abandon our attempt to transit the Northwest Passage this summer. With the ice situation showing little improvement, even if a late transit may become possible, we could face the prospect of being unable to reach the Pacific before the seas started to ice up again. In such an eventuality the only solution would be to overwinter somewhere in Arctic Canada or Alaska, something that I was not prepared to do. It was therefore decided to turn around and sail back to Europe while the weather conditions in the Northern Atlantic are still favourable for our 2700 miles passage home. The first response to my decision came from my son Ivan. I quote his words here, as they reflect exactly my own feelings: “Seeing as there seems to be a 50/50 chance that the Northwest Passage won’t open this year, it may be for the best to turn back. This is something my cycling has taught me about being audacious: it’s better to have tried and possibly failed than not to try at all!” It seems however they had a very good chance of getting into Resolute and then down to Bellot Strait. These are historic places worth going to having come so far. Even Gjoa Haven is a possibility given their constraints of not wanting to overwinter in the Arctic. They are failing before trying
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 18, 2014 7:38:51 GMT
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Post by Andrew on Aug 18, 2014 8:15:03 GMT
Novara is still heading towards the northwest passage and has arrived at pond inlet Built for the job: www.sy-novara.com/#!the-boat/cw6e
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Post by Andrew on Aug 18, 2014 22:06:01 GMT
Surprisingly Mango is making good progress towards Bellot strait and could be there in a few days time at the current rate lemanguier.typepad.fr/Edit: They could be at Bellot strait by the time I wake up and it is already late here.......
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 18, 2014 22:15:38 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 19, 2014 0:22:01 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Aug 19, 2014 1:23:19 GMT
Now I know what "going right" means .... is there an "UP" there too?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 19, 2014 1:31:00 GMT
Ratty: The total low ice shouldn't be in as of yet, but it may just stay in the near range until the actual freeze up starts.
One thing for sure, it is NOT going to be a low ice year in the Arctic.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 19, 2014 7:02:17 GMT
Ratty: The total low ice shouldn't be in as of yet, but it may just stay in the near range until the actual freeze up starts. One thing for sure, it is NOT going to be a low ice year in the Arctic. My guess is the ice is going to dip down quite a bit before we get a refreeze and the refreeze will not be particularly early, partly I am being influenced by the fact it was so bloody hot here in Finland most of this summer, other than an unusually cold June. I was also back in New Zealand last year when there was an unusually hot and dry summer. At this point in time i do not see anything to upset recent trends even though rising sea ice in Antarctica is standing out very very strongly, as is almost no change in global sea ice since around 1979. By the way have you seen this yet? en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2938Mango are now almost in Franklin strait just 60nm from bellot strait. Novara are heading for Arctic Bay
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Post by cuttydyer on Aug 19, 2014 9:14:31 GMT
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 19, 2014 13:59:32 GMT
Looks like temperature has dropped below freezing
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 19, 2014 20:38:30 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 19, 2014 20:40:36 GMT
Looks like temperature has dropped below freezing The far southern areas of ice should continue to melt, above 80N, freezing is here now. Another summer gone. What I find most amazing is, as I get older and older, time moves faster and faster. And it isn't because I have slowed down a bit, cause I really haven't. All I know is 2 hrs with the grandkids isn't nearly enough...
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