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Post by slh1234 on Aug 19, 2014 22:07:17 GMT
My guess is the ice is going to dip down quite a bit before we get a refreeze and the refreeze will not be particularly early, partly I am being influenced by the fact it was so bloody hot here in Finland most of this summer, other than an unusually cold June. I was also back in New Zealand last year when there was an unusually hot and dry summer. At this point in time i do not see anything to upset recent trends even though rising sea ice in Antarctica is standing out very very strongly, as is almost no change in global sea ice since around 1979. I'm actually a bit relieved to hear someone report a warmer than average summer/year. My anecdotes have all been either from original home (Oklahoma), last few places I've lived (Shanghai, Washington State, California), and California seemed to be the one place where it was warm. In the area where I currently am, we had snow on the beach this last winter in Busan - not unprecedented, but certainly not something that happens every year. Tokyo had a 120 year record snowstorm. The summer has never really gotten going in Korea. It's had a few warm days, but the summer rainy season didn't really produce as much rain as people thought it should, then right as it should have been winding down, it has started really raining. We're winding down August now, it's overcast and raining yet again this morning, with high temps supposed to be in the mid 20s. The only time I've turned on the A/C was when the typhoons came through (and that was because we couldn't keep the windows open because of high winds. My daughter in California has told me how the early part of the summer was hot there, but I looked at her forecast today, and they're not hot today, either (I will withhold the exact location if you don't mind). Shanghai was HOT last summer. But looking at their forecast today, they don't have a day forecast over 28 degrees. If I read the charts right, that puts their high temperatures about 8 degrees C below the normal highs this time of year. I know I just use my observations as I get around, and I know that can give a distorted view, but I've been very skeptical when people object to people in the US's observations as "That's just the US. We're talking about global" because despite being from the US, I don't think I have a true US-centric view, and where I have been, I have not observed a hot summer. But still, I keep hearing about how hot the summer is supposed to be compared with normal. I'm glad to hear that it is true for at least one place.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 20, 2014 6:02:51 GMT
My guess is the ice is going to dip down quite a bit before we get a refreeze and the refreeze will not be particularly early, partly I am being influenced by the fact it was so bloody hot here in Finland most of this summer, other than an unusually cold June. I was also back in New Zealand last year when there was an unusually hot and dry summer. At this point in time i do not see anything to upset recent trends even though rising sea ice in Antarctica is standing out very very strongly, as is almost no change in global sea ice since around 1979. I'm actually a bit relieved to hear someone report a warmer than average summer/year. My anecdotes have all been either from original home (Oklahoma), last few places I've lived (Shanghai, Washington State, California), and California seemed to be the one place where it was warm. In the area where I currently am, we had snow on the beach this last winter in Busan - not unprecedented, but certainly not something that happens every year. Tokyo had a 120 year record snowstorm. The summer has never really gotten going in Korea. It's had a few warm days, but the summer rainy season didn't really produce as much rain as people thought it should, then right as it should have been winding down, it has started really raining. We're winding down August now, it's overcast and raining yet again this morning, with high temps supposed to be in the mid 20s. The only time I've turned on the A/C was when the typhoons came through (and that was because we couldn't keep the windows open because of high winds. My daughter in California has told me how the early part of the summer was hot there, but I looked at her forecast today, and they're not hot today, either (I will withhold the exact location if you don't mind). Shanghai was HOT last summer. But looking at their forecast today, they don't have a day forecast over 28 degrees. If I read the charts right, that puts their high temperatures about 8 degrees C below the normal highs this time of year. I know I just use my observations as I get around, and I know that can give a distorted view, but I've been very skeptical when people object to people in the US's observations as "That's just the US. We're talking about global" because despite being from the US, I don't think I have a true US-centric view, and where I have been, I have not observed a hot summer. But still, I keep hearing about how hot the summer is supposed to be compared with normal. I'm glad to hear that it is true for at least one place. For the last week it has got much colder, possibly we might have a heater on by the end of the week, but i imagine it will be warmer again in a week or so. We have had persistant warmer summers here and persistant milder winters for decades. Since I came here about 2006 I have not experienced a cold wet summer. However we have had had a very unusually cold set of winters since I came here and since 2009 we are getting large amounts of snow with the 1960's Helsinki records more or less broken about two/three years ago. Even one winter where it was plus degrees almost into February we still had a massive amount of snow once it got colder. Generally speaking the weather here is highly influenced by the Gulfstream. North Dakota for example gets much much colder even though it is much much further south, so I dont see how Finnish temperatures are only something happening in isolation to the rest of the hemisphere.
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Post by hrizzo on Aug 20, 2014 7:56:06 GMT
You should try Playa Las Américas, Tenerife South: Warm and low humidity all year round.
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Post by cuttydyer on Aug 20, 2014 8:24:07 GMT
You should try Playa Las Américas, Tenerife South: Warm and low humidity all year round. I holidayed there as boy 30 years ago, bet it's seen a few changes. Here on Dartmoor (Devon, UK) it was a brisk 6°C this morning, now 9°C and raining.
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Post by hrizzo on Aug 20, 2014 14:59:12 GMT
I holidayed there as boy 30 years ago, bet it's seen a few changes. Here on Dartmoor (Devon, UK) it was a brisk 6°C this morning, now 9°C and raining. The record low in Tenerife were shivering 9.4ºC at 02:15 in the morning on January 29th, 1950, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, north of the island. The south is always warmer and dryer. Just the perfect place to live, those "islands of the eternal spring".
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Post by Andrew on Aug 20, 2014 16:54:29 GMT
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Post by Andrew on Aug 20, 2014 17:19:10 GMT
The ice has broken up quite a bit and could be passable in a few days............. iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page3.xhtmlMango is on the far left side of Franklin strait at 71.12N W98 which is around the edge of K and B www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=OS8154Mango is however currently significantly backtracking and has come back south about 20 miles and evidently has not found a way thru. According to Catryns blog, no ship including the icebreakers has passed thru the NWP so far. Link failed The link seems to show different pages or not work. Best find the page from CIS Eastern arctic page Prince Regent Boothia 20th of August
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 20, 2014 17:52:16 GMT
Code: They had better break through pretty soon. The Northern Settlements in Canada rely on ice breakers to break through and allow the resupply of the towns/settlements.
IF not by ship, then supplies have to be moved overland which is very hard to do as there are no roads per se in that part of Canada.
What most folks don't know is that Canadian Ice Breakers have made the journeys for years. Once in a great while, the ice is just too thick etc. As I said, when that happens, things are not rosy bright for the Northern Settlements.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 20, 2014 19:20:37 GMT
The only Canadian icebreaker around seems to be Terry Fox and it is not 'helicopter capable' which must be an interesting thought when you are 'stuck' in the middle of the NWP like Mango is currently. Mango overwintered in the Arctic frozen in at Argo Bay west of Tuk but thats different to being in an open sea potentially jammed between very large floes which CIS reports as being 500M to 2000M in diameter.
Edit. 8 hours later and Mango is much further North on the western side of Franklin strait at N71.36 W97.3 and has managed a steady 6kts for the last 3 hours.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 20, 2014 21:24:38 GMT
Andrew: We both live in northern climate areas. You are warmer than I am. The idiots that try to traverse the NW Passage in sail boats must think they are in the tropics.
And for sure, they have not experienced what -30 to -50C will do to the human body, and how very fast it does it.
I would take 120F any day of the week verses -30 to -50C if I was trying to survive.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 21, 2014 2:40:22 GMT
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 21, 2014 6:52:13 GMT
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Post by Andrew on Aug 21, 2014 7:25:15 GMT
empiricusembarks.wordpress.com/author/empiricusembarks/Empiricus is in Gjoa with Altan Girl. Manquier aka Mango is about 60 miles from bellot strait, at N71.37 W96.50 which is slightly south of west of Bellot Strait on the Far West side of the Franklin Strait. Looking at todays CIS chart, Mango can either exit today thru Bellot strait or still find an unobstructed route North to Resolute. www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=542306E5-1And in breaking news "the Maud Returns home" project tugboat that is towing a boat recovery platform for Maud is now just heading south from Lancaster sound towards bellot strait. www.maudreturnshome.no/project/ Update: Mango is about 70-80 miles North West of Bellot Strait on the far West side of Franklin Strait, and has been further north mid channel but is now coming back south and to the west due to the impassable ice shown on Aug 23 and 24 ice chart Novara is at Fort Ross Bellot Strait, according to Doug Pohl The Maud tug is half way down Prince Regent inlet Empiricus is moving very slowly north and very likely will turn back in a few days before getting into serious ice conditions because the crew have other committments where the current plan is to be near an airport by September 15th. Catryn is at the western entrance of Prince regent inlet on the way to Bellot Strait and several other boats are in that area Artic Tern (Randall Reeves) is nearing Bellot Strait and has Delorme satellite which enables almost real time monitoring of their position. Empiricus has the same system. Arctic Tern has for now turned back because of 7/10ths and is waiting further North share.delorme.com/randallreeves#share.delorme.com/empiricusembarks#
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 25, 2014 7:15:27 GMT
Sea Ice MetricThe Metric for this year's poll has dropped lower over the past few weeks. The 4.0 barrier is certainly under threat
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Post by cuttydyer on Aug 25, 2014 12:50:12 GMT
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