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Post by sigurdur on May 16, 2015 13:04:46 GMT
It is looking more and more like this potential El Nino will be a very mild one, if it actually blooms.
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Post by acidohm on May 16, 2015 20:18:03 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on May 16, 2015 21:08:52 GMT
Aw shucks, that Miles guy is watching what I watch.....LOL. Hence when I say, I am having a hard time seeing much of an El Nino this year. I am HOPING I am wrong.
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Post by acidohm on May 17, 2015 21:22:47 GMT
Aw shucks, that Miles guy is watching what I watch.....LOL. Hence when I say, I am having a hard time seeing much of an El Nino this year. I am HOPING I am wrong. Well.....i guess if you go hunting around validating info you gain on forums, your gonna get the same source every now and again!! This ssta animation from 1997 might give weight to the current scenario being good for el nino.....is that a warm blob in the NP coast of the US?? www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/elnino/anatomy/images/sst_animated.gif
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Post by douglavers on May 18, 2015 5:49:51 GMT
In Melbourne, we had about 40mm of rain last week.
Another big front about to arrive - cold and wet again.
This is NOT El Nino weather.
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Post by sigurdur on May 18, 2015 13:32:46 GMT
In Melbourne, we had about 40mm of rain last week. Another big front about to arrive - cold and wet again. This is NOT El Nino weather. There are a lot of factors not favoring a full blown ElNino. When u have an anchovy harvest 30% larger than 2014 happening this points to deeper waters being cool. And u need those waters to be warm for an El Nino to happen.
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Post by nonentropic on May 18, 2015 18:10:01 GMT
Melbourne will be in drought soon and will be pleased to have had the rain. Yeh right!
I must admit it does have a bit of a 2014 look about it.
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Post by sigurdur on May 18, 2015 23:07:46 GMT
Had an interesting and informative visit today with Daryl Richardson. He noted that this El Nino appears to be only in area 3.4. The hookup to the atmosphere is different when it is such a "local" event.
I still can't see a "BIG" event, rather a localized event seems in order.
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Post by nautonnier on May 19, 2015 13:40:49 GMT
Had an interesting and informative visit today with Daryl Richardson. He noted that this El Nino appears to be only in area 3.4. The hookup to the atmosphere is different when it is such a "local" event. I still can't see a "BIG" event, rather a localized event seems in order. But the event - whatever it turns out to be - is in precisely the right place to get the pattern matching models all over-excited.
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Post by nautonnier on May 23, 2015 0:41:06 GMT
Well I don't know about anyone else but the winds in the Pacific especially the South Easterlies along the Humboldt current do not seem to be doing what would be expected for an El Nino year. The metrics for SST may be causing the excitement but someone forgot to tell the anchovies.
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Post by acidohm on May 23, 2015 7:54:58 GMT
Is this nullschool image showing a reversal of the trade winds? Maybe just a burst as seen recently rather then full blown conditions.....
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Post by acidohm on May 23, 2015 8:11:30 GMT
A quote from BBC about what will happen in the UK if El Nino prevails... "The consequences of El Nino are much less clear for Europe and the UK, although they can lead to British winters that are dry with heavy snowfall." Isn't that an oxymoron?? or is it just a moron?? "I'm sorry California, EL Nino will produce a drought for you...apart from when it rains, which will be most if the time" www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32815460In fact the more i look at it, this article is an absolute sensationalist load of bulls**t, check out the graphic of the earth showing sst, it is centered over the atlantic yet we are told it demonstrates how the red areas of the pacific show its unusually warm, it is NOT an anomoly map!!!
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Post by missouriboy on May 23, 2015 15:12:30 GMT
A quote from BBC about what will happen in the UK if El Nino prevails... "The consequences of El Nino are much less clear for Europe and the UK, although they can lead to British winters that are dry with heavy snowfall." Isn't that an oxymoron?? or is it just a moron?? "I'm sorry California, EL Nino will produce a drought for you...apart from when it rains, which will be most if the time" www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32815460In fact the more i look at it, this article is an absolute sensationalist load of bulls**t, check out the graphic of the earth showing sst, it is centered over the atlantic yet we are told it demonstrates how the red areas of the pacific show its unusually warm, it is NOT an anomoly map!!! I think these guys (ladies) just write from a script. Don't know that they would know an 'anomaly' from an 'anchovy'. But don't tell them they have some anomalous anchovies out there ... that'all really confuse them. No tellin what might appear! "The sun so hot I froze to death". I never knew that Stephan Foster had a degree in climatology!
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Post by glennkoks on May 26, 2015 1:37:25 GMT
More bad news for Texas. The constant train of storms have caused more flooding and loss of life. The first picture is kind of ironic. The dam breaking was in Bastrop, TX which was ravaged by a wildfire in 2011 during the worst part of the "perma-drought" that was supposed to be the new norm with the added atmospheric CO2. The Second was in Wimberly, TX in the hill country which is a popular vacation spot for those floating down the placid river in tubes. Last night Wimberly got hit with about 10 inches of rain in 3 hours causing the river to rise 26 ft. in just hours. 12 people are confirmed dead and more missing. More rain is expected this week... Attachments:
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Post by sigurdur on May 26, 2015 4:23:08 GMT
Sorry to hear about the.loss.of life. Texas is much like ND. A state of extremes.
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