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Post by tobyglyn on Jun 2, 2015 1:21:57 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Jun 6, 2015 10:25:28 GMT
Should may come in as elevated as march/april the current event will be as strong as 97/98. it has been sat in the top 10% of the highest percentile for over two months now and temps across the regions are , unlike last year , now on the rise again. Astro's 'no Nino' mantra don't seem to work?
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Post by tobyglyn on Jun 6, 2015 12:11:50 GMT
Should may come in as elevated as march/april the current event will be as strong as 97/98. it has been sat in the top 10% of the highest percentile for over two months now and temps across the regions are , unlike last year , now on the rise again. Astro's 'no Nino' mantra don't seem to work? So, we're doomed?
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Post by AstroMet on Jun 6, 2015 12:40:20 GMT
Should may come in as elevated as march/april the current event will be as strong as 97/98. it has been sat in the top 10% of the highest percentile for over two months now and temps across the regions are , unlike last year , now on the rise again. Astro's 'no Nino' mantra don't seem to work? Every year you do this Graywolf, except in true ENSO years which 2014 and this solar year are not.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 6, 2015 12:49:14 GMT
Correct me if im wrong, however as El Nino was classified as a weather event before we could measure kelvin waves and sst etc, is it not the aspects felt by these people, ie weather, which defines the El Nino, not the events which may be required to cause one.
We are looking at causes, but so far no effect.....
how many times in the past this possible situation may have occured, no one will ever know, but our observations are limited. I do think its too early to call it, but so far it ain't el nino....
p.s. how are the anchovies doing???
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Post by fredzl4dh on Jun 6, 2015 13:06:42 GMT
New Zealand news tonight were asking ski field operator how it was looking this year, he said they were much better than normal for the time of year. The interviewer then asked him about the Australian ski fields as they had heard that they were opening a lot earlier this year because of a big increase in snow on their fields he said the Aussi trade may be a bit down because of this but not to much of a worry. It has been very wet down the bottom of the south island for the last 2 months April 165mm May 160mm and Dunedin had 127mm in 24 hrs 3 days ago.
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Post by graywolf on Jun 6, 2015 16:19:39 GMT
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html#discussion"The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile." "Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+5/-7) in this season, and excluding cases with declining April-May values compared to earlier in the year gives us six 'analogues' to ponder: 1957, 1987, 1993, 1997, 2002, and 2014 (all but 2014 are included in the MEI comparison figure of this section). Except for 2002-03, peak values of the remaining four events reached the strong threshold and maintained it from three months (1993) to 13 months (1997-98). None of the comparison figure cases dropped back to ENSO-neutral rankings before the end of the calendar year. Thus, if it were not for last year's unusual evolution, it would be safe to state that El Niño conditions are virtually guaranteed through 2015. Nevertheless, the odds for a substantial El Niño during the next six months appear better than since at least 2009."
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 6, 2015 17:54:50 GMT
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html#discussion"The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile." "Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+5/-7) in this season, and excluding cases with declining April-May values compared to earlier in the year gives us six 'analogues' to ponder: 1957, 1987, 1993, 1997, 2002, and 2014 (all but 2014 are included in the MEI comparison figure of this section). Except for 2002-03, peak values of the remaining four events reached the strong threshold and maintained it from three months (1993) to 13 months (1997-98). None of the comparison figure cases dropped back to ENSO-neutral rankings before the end of the calendar year. Thus, if it were not for last year's unusual evolution, it would be safe to state that El Niño conditions are virtually guaranteed through 2015. Nevertheless, the odds for a substantial El Niño during the next six months appear better than since at least 2009." Thanks
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Post by douglavers on Jun 18, 2015 1:29:21 GMT
www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/[The SOI has turned comfortably positive. Not good for those hoping for a strong El Nino. BTW, Central and Eastern Australia have just received a fair amount of rain. Alice Springs even "enjoyed" a rather spectacular hail storm, unusual at this time of year. Again, not typical El Nino weather. I still remember the 9 months of 1982, when I first came to Melbourne, when it just did not rain. The place nearly ran out of water. ] That is what I posted a few days ago elsewhere. The SOI is now slightly negative, but there is still much rain around in Eastern Australia. I repeat, not typical El Nino!
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 18, 2015 4:13:29 GMT
Actually, the atmospheric hookup still hasn't happened. Maybe it will but time is now against it happening.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 21, 2015 7:25:04 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jun 21, 2015 7:29:21 GMT
Actually, the atmospheric hookup still hasn't happened. Maybe it will but time is now against it happening. I agree Sig....also the monthly anomalies...although persistent are very weak, in fact there's not much weaker in the record to compare it too. Take '97 for example... (from memory) went from something like +0.5 to +2.3 in 4-5 months.....The same time period in this instance has produced nothing above +0.7...not impressive....
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Post by graywolf on Jun 21, 2015 11:58:57 GMT
This is an out of place nino ( seeing as it is named after the Christ child due to its Chrimbo appearance ) so I'm not surprised that through the height of northern summer the trades try and do what they do but these constant WWB's interludes are allowing all regions to keep warm and even increase their temps. The Next major WWB is progged to turn up over the coming days further shoving warm waters out of the warm pool and back east. By the time we should be seeing the Atmosphere fully link up ( normally autumn) we will already have a strong Nino in place and so where do we go from there?
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jun 21, 2015 14:18:08 GMT
This is an out of place nino ( seeing as it is named after the Christ child due to its Chrimbo appearance ) so I'm not surprised that through the height of northern summer the trades try and do what they do but these constant WWB's interludes are allowing all regions to keep warm and even increase their temps. The Next major WWB is progged to turn up over the coming days further shoving warm waters out of the warm pool and back east. By the time we should be seeing the Atmosphere fully link up ( normally autumn) we will already have a strong Nino in place and so where do we go from there? The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt, sea level increases by 3 meters, and billions of humans drown in the boiling sea. Should be cause for great celebration by you and your buddy Paul Ehrlich, Mr. Wolf.
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Post by icefisher on Jun 21, 2015 18:00:55 GMT
This is an out of place nino ( seeing as it is named after the Christ child due to its Chrimbo appearance ) so I'm not surprised that through the height of northern summer the trades try and do what they do but these constant WWB's interludes are allowing all regions to keep warm and even increase their temps. The Next major WWB is progged to turn up over the coming days further shoving warm waters out of the warm pool and back east. By the time we should be seeing the Atmosphere fully link up ( normally autumn) we will already have a strong Nino in place and so where do we go from there? Probably to a La Nina.
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