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Post by icefisher on Jun 28, 2015 16:54:23 GMT
Proof of the pudding almost upon us. As the ENSO models move into summer and a level of skill what are we seeing. We are seeing the short term element of the model breaking consistency with the predictions made by the longer term elements of the past few weeks as the short term elements are clearly now pointing downwards. Its make or break time.
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Post by graywolf on Jun 30, 2015 9:02:41 GMT
Well we are into the WWB and it's a doozy! With MJO playing ball it looks like we will be seeing a reload of the KW ..... this thing is turning big!
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Post by Ratty on Jun 30, 2015 10:37:39 GMT
Well we are into the WWB and it's a doozy! With MJO playing ball it looks like we will be seeing a reload of the KW ..... this thing is turning big! Can you be more specific, GW?
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Post by acidohm on Jun 30, 2015 15:37:03 GMT
What a difference 6 months makes
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 30, 2015 19:04:16 GMT
I know GW sses a Super El Nino. I will stick to my observations all along that I still don't see an El Nino. Might wish for one but that doesn't make any difference.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jun 30, 2015 23:13:05 GMT
I know GW sses a Super El Nino. I will stick to my observations all along that I still don't see an El Nino. Might wish for one but that doesn't make any difference. fis.com/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp?l=e&id=77557&ndb=1Hope springs eternal for Mr. Wolf and his apocalyptic Super El Nino, Mr. Sig. Meanwhile, the anchovies are saying, "not so fast."
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Post by Ratty on Jun 30, 2015 23:54:44 GMT
Well we are into the WWB and it's a doozy! With MJO playing ball it looks like we will be seeing a reload of the KW ..... this thing is turning big! Can you be more specific, GW? Could you please elaborate please GW? What 'thing' is 'turning big'? Just curious.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 1, 2015 2:27:08 GMT
Can you be more specific, GW? Could you please elaborate please GW? What 'thing' is 'turning big'? Just curious. Sure you want to know?
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Post by douglavers on Jul 1, 2015 8:27:42 GMT
The SOI has been heavily negative for two weeks.
Normally this would indicate EL Nino conditions for Oz, but there still seems to be enough rain around.
Together with the anchovy comment, I wonder if a newly positive PDO and newly formed AMO [to use lots of letters] have derailed many of the climate models. i.e tuned for a different setup.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 1, 2015 13:27:42 GMT
Could you please elaborate please GW? What 'thing' is 'turning big'? Just curious. Sure you want to know? I haven't had an answer to any of the questions I have put to GW yet .... maybe two years now so I'm not allocating any time to my responses.
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Post by walnut on Jul 1, 2015 13:45:03 GMT
The Propaganda Minister does not work to serve you Ratty. Its all about volume. And your questions might be a burden.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jul 1, 2015 15:45:06 GMT
Well we are into the WWB and it's a doozy! With MJO playing ball it looks like we will be seeing a reload of the KW ..... this thing is turning big! Can you be more specific, GW? Sorry Ratty, I thing GW is still spent from his joygasm that the up-coming El Niño is looking bigger for a couple of reasons. 1. The SOI is staying solidly in El Niño territory now and has recently been moving lower. (Low SOI supports El Niño) 2. The current warm phase Kelvin wave is about to surface much farther East than the last few have made it. This will probably make SSTs look more like a traditional El Niño rather than and Modiki. These two things combined seem likely to create conditions where the Westerlies relax. (Stop blowing) If this happens, we will probably see a significan El Niño. I think that is what he meant. Maybe when he gets cleaned up he can tell us... ;->
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Post by acidohm on Jul 6, 2015 21:00:55 GMT
NOAA released April/May/June Oceanic Niño Index at 0.9 on the new ERSSTv4 data set...
Only '83 '87 and '92 were higher in value at this point of the year.....'83 and '92 were similar in that these events were already a year old at that stage and were fizzling out. '87 had values above 0.5 threshold since previous August/september/october and was a peak event at 1.6, lasted through the winter of '87 '88 to die off in spring '88
This event on the new data set needs another month of above threshold oni figures to be an el nino. So far it is a very un typical event in records going back to 1950.
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Post by douglavers on Jul 7, 2015 3:50:47 GMT
SOI just turned positive again, after big negatives for the past two weeks.
Incidentally, we are still getting plenty of rain in SE Australia.
Does'nt "feel" like EL Nino.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 7, 2015 4:39:20 GMT
Still lacks that atmospheric hookup
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