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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2015 21:14:29 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 27, 2015 3:43:03 GMT
Missouriboy: Dr. Osborne got so pissed that he started Meridian Weather. I see him at farm forums now, and always wait to talk to him till after, as one time when I was asking questions, I could tell most eyes glazed over in the room, but he was really on a roll. He tried all sorts of angles, but he is a known skeptic in academic circles......so...his applications got no where. He never denies that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but he will argue till he his blue in the face that current GCM's produce much of merit. But then, he is an Atmospheric Scientist why a Physics PhD. Oh well......good luck when you talk to your state meteorologist. I bet he will be able to aid you. Sig - I found my state climatologist, at least his office, seems he's out for awhile...perhaps conversing with a climatologist in a warmer part of the world? Pat Guinan is his name. I'm attaching a final (is anything?) version of the annual temp and precip chart for you. I did notice something I had missed earlier. On the leading edge of the current warm AMO phase starting in 1996 is what looks like a mirror image (in terms of placement and extent) of the drought on the leading edge of the 1930-64 AMO warm phase. It is in exactly the same location and has the same temporal width. Precipitation, however, only dropped back to normal versus 85 percent of normal ... and the temperatures were lower. Seems like too much of a coincidence to actually be one. The 30s drought was also on the rising flank of a series of increasingly powerful solar cycles while we are now on the declining flank of a series of progressively weaker solar cycles. Any indication that the PDO has any effect on the midwest? I note that it too was in a coincident warm phase during the 30s.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 27, 2015 4:53:28 GMT
Missouriboy: Dr. Osborne got so pissed that he started Meridian Weather. I see him at farm forums now, and always wait to talk to him till after, as one time when I was asking questions, I could tell most eyes glazed over in the room, but he was really on a roll. He tried all sorts of angles, but he is a known skeptic in academic circles......so...his applications got no where. He never denies that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but he will argue till he his blue in the face that current GCM's produce much of merit. But then, he is an Atmospheric Scientist why a Physics PhD. Oh well......good luck when you talk to your state meteorologist. I bet he will be able to aid you. Sig - I found my state climatologist, at least his office, seems he's out for awhile...perhaps conversing with a climatologist in a warmer part of the world? Pat Guinan is his name. I'm attaching a final (is anything?) version of the annual temp and precip chart for you. I did notice something I had missed earlier. On the leading edge of the current warm AMO phase starting in 1996 is what looks like a mirror image (in terms of placement and extent) of the drought on the leading edge of the 1930-64 AMO warm phase. It is in exactly the same location and has the same temporal width. Precipitation, however, only dropped back to normal versus 85 percent of normal ... and the temperatures were lower. Seems like too much of a coincidence to actually be one. The 30s drought was also on the rising flank of a series of increasingly powerful solar cycles while we are now on the declining flank of a series of progressively weaker solar cycles. Any indication that the PDO has any effect on the midwest? I note that it too was in a coincident warm phase during the 30s. View AttachmentMissouriboy: Great work! I am going to look closely at what you posted tomorrow or over the weekend, as I am too tired tonight to do what you have done justice. I tried to find the paper talking about the hydrological cycle in the central corridor of the US. I wanted to compare it to your precip etc. I get a 404 code when I hit the link I saved. I might have to call NDSU, as the paper originated there if memory serves me. This is practical information!!! And what climate scientists SHOULD be looking at.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 27, 2015 22:06:50 GMT
Missouriboy: Dr. Osborne got so pissed that he started Meridian Weather. I see him at farm forums now, and always wait to talk to him till after, as one time when I was asking questions, I could tell most eyes glazed over in the room, but he was really on a roll. He tried all sorts of angles, but he is a known skeptic in academic circles......so...his applications got no where. He never denies that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but he will argue till he his blue in the face that current GCM's produce much of merit. But then, he is an Atmospheric Scientist why a Physics PhD. Oh well......good luck when you talk to your state meteorologist. I bet he will be able to aid you. Sig - I found my state climatologist, at least his office, seems he's out for awhile...perhaps conversing with a climatologist in a warmer part of the world? Pat Guinan is his name. I'm attaching a final (is anything?) version of the annual temp and precip chart for you. I did notice something I had missed earlier. On the leading edge of the current warm AMO phase starting in 1996 is what looks like a mirror image (in terms of placement and extent) of the drought on the leading edge of the 1930-64 AMO warm phase. It is in exactly the same location and has the same temporal width. Precipitation, however, only dropped back to normal versus 85 percent of normal ... and the temperatures were lower. Seems like too much of a coincidence to actually be one. The 30s drought was also on the rising flank of a series of increasingly powerful solar cycles while we are now on the declining flank of a series of progressively weaker solar cycles. Any indication that the PDO has any effect on the midwest? I note that it too was in a coincident warm phase during the 30s. View Attachmentmissouriboy: Can you eek out a cycle in precip? you have the data. The 3 year average is good for comparing to other items, but a stand alone annual average precip?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2015 1:50:24 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 28, 2015 6:02:02 GMT
Sig - I found my state climatologist, at least his office, seems he's out for awhile...perhaps conversing with a climatologist in a warmer part of the world? Pat Guinan is his name. I'm attaching a final (is anything?) version of the annual temp and precip chart for you. I did notice something I had missed earlier. On the leading edge of the current warm AMO phase starting in 1996 is what looks like a mirror image (in terms of placement and extent) of the drought on the leading edge of the 1930-64 AMO warm phase. It is in exactly the same location and has the same temporal width. Precipitation, however, only dropped back to normal versus 85 percent of normal ... and the temperatures were lower. Seems like too much of a coincidence to actually be one. The 30s drought was also on the rising flank of a series of increasingly powerful solar cycles while we are now on the declining flank of a series of progressively weaker solar cycles. Any indication that the PDO has any effect on the midwest? I note that it too was in a coincident warm phase during the 30s. missouriboy: Can you eek out a cycle in precip? you have the data. The 3 year average is good for comparing to other items, but a stand alone annual average precip? Sure sig! How would you like it? I can create more graphs or I could try to attach a spreadsheet or get you the raw numbers if you'd like.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2015 7:01:16 GMT
Do a graph of annual precip using 1915-1970 as the mean value. Will show two things. Deviation from average on a full pdo cycle and tell u what effect that may have.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2015 7:03:00 GMT
I don't know dates of the full AMO cycle. Top to top or bottom to bottom would be the time frame for that mean.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2015 7:18:20 GMT
OK. From your earlier data those are the dates of the AMO cycle.
Now I will have to recheck PDO.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2015 7:24:31 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2015 7:26:18 GMT
The PDO is about 5 years out of phase with the AMO. Close enough tho as the early PDO phase is gueestamites.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2015 7:28:06 GMT
I need to get my hands on that 180 year study on precip cycles in Central USA.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2015 16:09:21 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2015 16:11:20 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 28, 2015 16:12:08 GMT
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