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Post by acidohm on Apr 16, 2016 19:41:55 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 17, 2016 3:43:49 GMT
Good find Acid. So ... did you get your southerly flows this last summer? we observed a highly significant increase in southerly weather types during boreal summer months in association with El Niño, of 2.6±0.8 days/month (p=1.9×10−4). Lagged analysis over a ±5 year period shows the signal to be centred on the year of peak signal
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Post by acidohm on Apr 17, 2016 4:59:33 GMT
Last summer we were predominantly north of the jetstream which tracked over north France much of the time it seemed.
It was cool last year with 2 weeks of heat in June when....guess what...We broke a temp record (at Heathrow airport ******)
The stream I guess was starting to go v meridional, later we were south of the stream, in december, very mild and the arctic melted.
So mostly no, but it was an odd year (as is this year so far, snowed yesterday brrrrr)
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Post by Ratty on Apr 17, 2016 8:21:10 GMT
Last summer we were predominantly north of the jetstream which tracked over north France much of the time it seemed. It was cool last year with 2 weeks of heat in June when....guess what...We broke a temp record (at Heathrow airport ******) The stream I guess was starting to go v meridional, later we were south of the stream, in december, very mild and the arctic melted. So mostly no, but it was an odd year (as is this year so far, snowed yesterday brrrrr) EVERY year is an odd year Acid.
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dresi
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 120
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Post by dresi on Apr 17, 2016 9:16:42 GMT
I know UK was cold but mainland Europe sure had nonstop southerly flow last summer. It was ridiculously warm and dry.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 17, 2016 11:40:50 GMT
I know UK was cold but mainland Europe sure had nonstop southerly flow last summer. It was ridiculously warm and dry. I know what you mean Dresi, I have family in Croatia who baked last year...it seems a little like cool air pooled south, concentrating the heat south of that??
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 17, 2016 11:51:28 GMT
Last summer we were predominantly north of the jetstream which tracked over north France much of the time it seemed. It was cool last year with 2 weeks of heat in June when....guess what...We broke a temp record (at Heathrow airport ******) The stream I guess was starting to go v meridional, later we were south of the stream, in december, very mild and the arctic melted. So mostly no, but it was an odd year (as is this year so far, snowed yesterday brrrrr) The Heathrow airport record which occurred on one reading from their automated weather reporting station. The reading apparently took place just after the landing of a large aircraft (I believe an Airbus 380) that used a lot of reverse thrust then turned off the runway using all 4 engines with the jet eflux pointed toward the weather reporting station. There was a long discussion of the occurrence, in WUWT if I remember correctly.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 17, 2016 13:42:07 GMT
Last summer we were predominantly north of the jetstream which tracked over north France much of the time it seemed. It was cool last year with 2 weeks of heat in June when....guess what...We broke a temp record (at Heathrow airport ******) The stream I guess was starting to go v meridional, later we were south of the stream, in december, very mild and the arctic melted. So mostly no, but it was an odd year (as is this year so far, snowed yesterday brrrrr) The Heathrow airport record which occurred on one reading from their automated weather reporting station. The reading apparently took place just after the landing of a large aircraft (I believe an Airbus 380) that used a lot of reverse thrust then turned off the runway using all 4 engines with the jet eflux pointed toward the weather reporting station. There was a long discussion of the occurrence, in WUWT if I remember correctly. Yep....hence *******
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 19, 2016 22:09:10 GMT
Interesting graph referenced on WUWT from the climate 'scientists' least favorite Russian - Abdussmatov Seems to agree with Theo's forecast. It was made 3 years ago.
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Post by douglavers on Apr 20, 2016 6:46:23 GMT
Did Abdussmatov put out a planetary average temp forecast at the same time?
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 20, 2016 12:08:37 GMT
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Post by duwayne on May 19, 2016 18:18:36 GMT
There have been several predictions by fellow board members here that global temperatures are going to fall sharply below normal later this year and through next year as a Super La Nina follows on the heels of a Super El Nino. If you believe really cold temperatures lie ahead, here’s a way you might put that knowledge to profitable use. Corn yields are highly dependent on weather and late spring frosts and early fall frosts can wreak havoc. Cold sweather and abnormal rainfall patterns are a big problem. Low corn yields mean high corn prices. This chart shows the variation in corn prices in cents per bushel over the past 100 years. The link below gives a closer look at the corn futures prices over the past 10 years. futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/MIs $8 dollar per bushel for corn in 2017, the level reached in 2012, a reasonable possibility with the coming cold weather? Corn planting this spring in the US is going very well and the early growth is better than average and the prices are falling today. The current corn cash price is around $3.88 per bushel. Futures prices are very low reflecting an expectation of excellent yields this year and next. The December 2017 futures price is currently around $4.05 per bushel which is on the low end of the recent 10-year history. If you were to believe that poor weather will drive corn yields down significantly and drive corn prices up to say the $8.00+ per bushel experienced in 2012 sometime between now and December 2017, you could buy December 2017 futures now and reap a big profit. Of course you could well lose substantial money if the good weather continues and record yields follow. To reduce your downside risk you could buy an option on December 2017 futures and limit your loss exposure to a small number while giving you the opportunity to capture a return on your investment of 30 times. The cost of an option to buy 1 December 2017 corn futures contract (5000 bushels) at $6.00 per bushel is currently quoted at 6.5 cents per bushel or $325 for the 5,000 bushel contract. If December 2017 corn goes to $8.00 per bushel between now and December 2017, your option would be worth over $2.00 per bushel (the difference between the $6 option price and the $8 market price) times 5,000 bushels per contract or $10,000, a nice tidy 3000% return on your $325 investment along with a lot of bragging rights. This investment is actually very easy to make after you go through the "paperwork" of opening an account. Note that I am not recommending anything here. But I am interested to see how confident you are of global cooling and even if you don't choose to risk any money on your prediction, what, exactly, is your prediction with respect to the amount of cooling in the corn belt?
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Post by nonentropic on May 19, 2016 19:19:42 GMT
very substantial cooling would potentially reverse the ethanol program if food started to ramp up and the AGW fear fell away. That could reduce the price lift.
Sig knows the sensitivity in the US market to a 10% fall in volumes.
The view is that this will be a warm season (Joe B. and others) with a wet start, in NZ that would be good for corn/grain as they are deep rooted relative to grass. Next year is the cruncher if the predictions were to be the outcome.
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Post by Ratty on May 19, 2016 22:59:29 GMT
Duwayne, I've taken your advice. Where will I be able to find you in December 2017?
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Post by sigurdur on May 20, 2016 3:30:29 GMT
There were some that thought it might rain a lot during Argentina soybean harvest. 11.00 November 16 calls were a nickel. They closed at 0.53 today.
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