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Post by walnut on Jan 3, 2018 0:19:00 GMT
I thought Monbiot and the Guardian more or less gave up on global warming ----> climate change.
They are such a silly website.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 3, 2018 5:00:41 GMT
I wouldn't bank on that Nautonnier! Each year - BY DEFINITION - must be the hottest ever recorded. May the Forcings be With you !!
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Post by graywolf on Jan 3, 2018 12:16:52 GMT
I've been advising folk here , since i joined, that we would see the naturals flip to augment warming whilst the human 'draw downs' of global temp moderated.
In 2014 the Pacific 'naturals flipped' and we began on this current rapid warmup. It is currently warming at a faster rate than we saw in the 80's/90's but in the past we had a higher albedo across the north so reflected plenty of energy back into space. We also had the worst of the Asian dimming to intercept incoming energy prior to our climate system seeing it.
In the 80's/90's we did not have Greenland entering the rapid melt phase as Jacobhavn was not in its ice cliff failure phase with year round calving. On West Antarctica, back in the 80's/90's, PIG and thwaites were safe and not just about to fall off their supporting ridges prior to retreating inland under ice cliff failure forcings. In the 80's/90's we had a stable Stratosphere not bothered by eruptions into its layer by oversize storms, we had a QBO that could be relied upon and a polar vortex that rarely saw leakage of cold to the south ( until the late 90's when we saw our first extreme outbreaks occurring?). In the 80's/90's California has a fire season that ran from May to October. So as we step up into this renewed warming pulse we will see things forced into being that were still 'safe' through the last phase of rapid global warming. Yamal did not take an early winter lake effect dump this Autumn. I wonder if this will prove detrimental to the over 1,000 methane molehills that grew there since 2014?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 3, 2018 13:05:28 GMT
It is always interesting to read your posts Graywolf.
North America hasn't enjoyed the warming that the rest of the world seems to be enjoying.
Seems, because of our position on the planet, we bear the weight of of glaciers. 1st to form and last to leave.
It is amazing tho, that this late in an interglacial event that Greenland has not melted much more. Also that the WP of Antarctica is still intact.
That clearly shows how cold this interglacial period has been.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 3, 2018 13:10:36 GMT
I've been advising folk here , since i joined, that we would see the naturals flip to augment warming whilst the human 'draw downs' of global temp moderated. In 2014 the Pacific 'naturals flipped' and we began on this current rapid warmup. It is currently warming at a faster rate than we saw in the 80's/90's but in the past we had a higher albedo across the north so reflected plenty of energy back into space. We also had the worst of the Asian dimming to intercept incoming energy prior to our climate system seeing it. In the 80's/90's we did not have Greenland entering the rapid melt phase as Jacobhavn was not in its ice cliff failure phase with year round calving. On West Antarctica, back in the 80's/90's, PIG and thwaites were safe and not just about to fall off their supporting ridges prior to retreating inland under ice cliff failure forcings. In the 80's/90's we had a stable Stratosphere not bothered by eruptions into its layer by oversize storms, we had a QBO that could be relied upon and a polar vortex that rarely saw leakage of cold to the south ( until the late 90's when we saw our first extreme outbreaks occurring?).In the 80's/90's California has a fire season that ran from May to October. So as we step up into this renewed warming pulse we will see things forced into being that were still 'safe' through the last phase of rapid global warming. Yamal did not take an early winter lake effect dump this Autumn. I wonder if this will prove detrimental to the over 1,000 methane molehills that grew there since 2014? Not trying to be difficult ... BUT perhaps you could give us a scientific explanation (simple please) for what exactly caused the extreme polar outbreaks that set so many records back in the 1880s-90s and 1960s-70s? Most of our recorded "big ones" in the American Mid-West occurred in those periods, which are coincident with the last two major funks in our big red ball. What caused those vortex breakdowns? AND the less-well documented similar events we see even further back?
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Post by graywolf on Jan 3, 2018 15:16:20 GMT
Can we start with the fact that in 1972 global temps were running 0.9c lower than today? and in the 1880's/90's we were at the end of the 1,000 yrs of northern cooling so I'd guess all those snaps of old glaciers/snow patches/ice sheets that no longer exist played their role in micro climates of the regions ( ask the caribou that used to plan their migrations to pass over snow patches so as to escape the mozzies....now they just get bled alive by them) and , of course, as you deniers like to tell us records where aparse and questionable peior to 1980... Weakness in the PV was a cyclical event that has solar forcing at its base ( as we know well in the NW europe) but we did not see 'off centre' vortex throughout both high and low solar nor the total destruction of the vortex over the Basin itself as it relocates into lower lats? Have you seen the december anoms across the basin for 2017 ? Sea ice was also a component that helped the vortex with deep cold over the central Arctic leading to a permanent HP system. And , of course, no moisture across the basin and the thermal impacts/thickness tweaks it brings. All of a nothing really, we are now dialed into this resurgent warming and 2018 will see another top 3 finish and be yet another year to pass 1998 even though Enso is NADA...
I'd go and look through Jen Francis' works as she has complete records back into the late 70's and she will help guide you to the changes in the northern hemisphere's circulation if you are unable to see them currently?
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 3, 2018 15:20:01 GMT
Can we start with the fact that in 1972 global temps were running 0.9c lower than today? and in the 1880's/90's we were at the end of the 1,000 yrs of northern cooling so I'd guess all those snaps of old glaciers/snow patches/ice sheets that no longer exist played their role in micro climates of the regions ( ask the caribou that used to plan their migrations to pass over snow patches so as to escape the mozzies....now they just get bled alive by them) and , of course, as you deniers like to tell us records where aparse and questionable peior to 1980... Weakness in the PV was a cyclical event that has solar forcing at its base ( as we know well in the NW europe) but we did not see 'off centre' vortex throughout both high and low solar nor the total destruction of the vortex over the Basin itself as it relocates into lower lats? Have you seen the december anoms across the basin for 2017 ? Sea ice was also a component that helped the vortex with deep cold over the central Arctic leading to a permanent HP system. And , of course, no moisture across the basin and the thermal impacts/thickness tweaks it brings. All of a nothing really, we are now dialed into this resurgent warming and 2018 will see another top 3 finish and be yet another year to pass 1998 even though Enso is NADA... I'd go and look through Jen Francis' works as she has complete records back into the late 70's and she will help guide you to the changes in the northern hemisphere's circulation if you are unable to see them currently? Yep remember the 1970's and the concern about the coming ice-age. It's amazing what you can prove choosing points on sine waves and drawing straight 'trend' lines through them. Try going back to the Holocene optimum 8000 years ago; it puts all this ripple watching in perspective. Oh and there was no peak CO2 for the Holocene optimum.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 3, 2018 16:29:30 GMT
Can we start with the fact that in 1972 global temps were running 0.9c lower than today? and in the 1880's/90's we were at the end of the 1,000 yrs of northern cooling so I'd guess all those snaps of old glaciers/snow patches/ice sheets that no longer exist played their role in micro climates of the regions ( ask the caribou that used to plan their migrations to pass over snow patches so as to escape the mozzies....now they just get bled alive by them) and , of course, as you deniers like to tell us records where aparse and questionable peior to 1980... Weakness in the PV was a cyclical event that has solar forcing at its base ( as we know well in the NW europe) but we did not see 'off centre' vortex throughout both high and low solar nor the total destruction of the vortex over the Basin itself as it relocates into lower lats? Have you seen the december anoms across the basin for 2017 ? Sea ice was also a component that helped the vortex with deep cold over the central Arctic leading to a permanent HP system. And , of course, no moisture across the basin and the thermal impacts/thickness tweaks it brings. All of a nothing really, we are now dialed into this resurgent warming and 2018 will see another top 3 finish and be yet another year to pass 1998 even though Enso is NADA... I'd go and look through Jen Francis' works as she has complete records back into the late 70's and she will help guide you to the changes in the northern hemisphere's circulation if you are unable to see them currently? With respect Graywolf: The Polar Vortex wandered south LONG before 1970. My family has lived in the area I live now for 150 years. Believe me, in ND, we KNOW the Polar Vortex as it comes to visit annually. This just ISN'T something NEW!
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Post by acidohm on Jan 3, 2018 18:57:30 GMT
Can we start with the fact that in 1972 global temps were running 0.9c lower than today? and in the 1880's/90's we were at the end of the 1,000 yrs of northern cooling so I'd guess all those snaps of old glaciers/snow patches/ice sheets that no longer exist played their role in micro climates of the regions ( ask the caribou that used to plan their migrations to pass over snow patches so as to escape the mozzies....now they just get bled alive by them) and , of course, as you deniers like to tell us records where aparse and questionable peior to 1980... Weakness in the PV was a cyclical event that has solar forcing at its base ( as we know well in the NW europe) but we did not see 'off centre' vortex throughout both high and low solar nor the total destruction of the vortex over the Basin itself as it relocates into lower lats? Have you seen the december anoms across the basin for 2017 ? Sea ice was also a component that helped the vortex with deep cold over the central Arctic leading to a permanent HP system. And , of course, no moisture across the basin and the thermal impacts/thickness tweaks it brings. All of a nothing really, we are now dialed into this resurgent warming and 2018 will see another top 3 finish and be yet another year to pass 1998 even though Enso is NADA... I'd go and look through Jen Francis' works as she has complete records back into the late 70's and she will help guide you to the changes in the northern hemisphere's circulation if you are unable to see them currently? How come the Vikings buried their dead in what is now Greenland 'permafrost???
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 3, 2018 22:03:22 GMT
Because it was a lot warmer back when Vikings died on Greenland Acidohm.
Some think the MWP wasn't worldwide. Well, it shows up in Europe, Russia, China, South America, North America.
Heck, even Australia and Antarctica!
It was a heck of a glorious time.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 3, 2018 22:21:57 GMT
Because it was a lot warmer back when Vikings died on Greenland Acidohm. Some think the MWP wasn't worldwide. Well, it shows up in Europe, Russia, China, South America, North America. Heck, even Australia and Antarctica! It was a heck of a glorious time. We named our boy cat Floki after the Viking who discovered Iceland. He didn't discover Greenland, but he certainly kickstarted the push!
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 3, 2018 22:25:55 GMT
I suppose I should change my avatar from the Icelandic Licker goblin. 😁
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Post by Ratty on Jan 3, 2018 22:29:56 GMT
I suppose I should change my avatar from the Icelandic Licker goblin. 😁 How about .... Too far South?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 3, 2018 23:31:17 GMT
Naw, I will pass. Too close of a resemblance.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 4, 2018 13:42:10 GMT
I suppose I should change my avatar from the Icelandic Licker goblin. 😁 How about .... Too far South? No wonder Antarctic vortexes never go that far north. You cousins need one of them guarding the Midlands.
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