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Post by fredzl4dh on Nov 10, 2015 9:33:47 GMT
A new paper out from Bjorn Lomborg onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.12295/full#gpol12295-sec-0011This article investigates the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030, using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even optimistically assuming that promised emission cuts are maintained throughout the century, the impacts are generally small. The impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) is a reduction in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100. The full US promise for the COP21 climate conference in Paris, its so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will reduce temperature rise by 0.031°C. The EU 20-20 policy has an impact of 0.026°C, the EU INDC 0.053°C, and China INDC 0.048°C. All climate policies by the US, China, the EU and the rest of the world, implemented from the early 2000s to 2030 and sustained through the century will likely reduce global temperature rise about 0.17°C in 2100. These impact estimates are robust to different calibrations of climate sensitivity, carbon cycling and different climate scenarios. Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades. |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 10, 2015 10:05:20 GMT
So smooth ... so monotonically unresponsive ... so errorbarless! The climate scientist's view of a digital Kansas, headed west.
The heat goes on.
However, the model name is entertaining ... MAGICC.
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Post by duwayne on Nov 10, 2015 15:06:31 GMT
A new paper out from Bjorn Lomborg onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.12295/full#gpol12295-sec-0011This article investigates the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030, using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even optimistically assuming that promised emission cuts are maintained throughout the century, the impacts are generally small. The impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) is a reduction in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100. The full US promise for the COP21 climate conference in Paris, its so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will reduce temperature rise by 0.031°C. The EU 20-20 policy has an impact of 0.026°C, the EU INDC 0.053°C, and China INDC 0.048°C. All climate policies by the US, China, the EU and the rest of the world, implemented from the early 2000s to 2030 and sustained through the century will likely reduce global temperature rise about 0.17°C in 2100. These impact estimates are robust to different calibrations of climate sensitivity, carbon cycling and different climate scenarios. Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades. Fredz14dh, I got more useful information out of your paragraph above than I have from all the other news put together about the COP21. |
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Post by douglavers on Nov 19, 2015 21:03:58 GMT
Ten days out, there is not much reliability in weather projections. However looking at what currently exists, it appears that France will be very wet/snowy/cold on 30th November. Probably won't matter much to the delegates. cowering in wonderfully warm hotels and conference venues!
POTUS might also have a little trouble leaving Washington as the freeze level will almost be on the Gulf Coast.
The gods must be laughing again.
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Post by acidohm on Nov 19, 2015 21:51:09 GMT
2 weeks makes a big difference, it's gone from record high nov temps in wales to under average generally very quickly...
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 19, 2015 23:05:21 GMT
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Post by fredzl4dh on Nov 20, 2015 8:55:17 GMT
Ten days out, there is not much reliability in weather projections. However looking at what currently exists, it appears that France will be very wet/snowy/cold on 30th November. Probably won't matter much to the delegates. cowering in wonderfully warm hotels and conference venues! POTUS might also have a little trouble leaving Washington as the freeze level will almost be on the Gulf Coast. The gods must be laughing again. It's called the gore effect. |
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 21, 2015 14:41:47 GMT
www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimatesOn Friday, the UNEP Emissions Gap Report joined a series of studies released over the past few weeks assessing how much countries’ recent climate change announcements, or intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), contribute to combating warming. Collectively, the studies make it clear that the INDCs make a substantial contribution to bending the global emissions trajectory below our current path. However, the studies also show that without additional action, the INDCs are insufficient to limit warming to below 2°C and avoid some of the worst climate impacts. The details of the Paris Agreement are, therefore, very important to help achieve an additional bending of the emissions trajectory before 2020, to support the implementation of the INDCs and to ensure greater ambition after 2030.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 21, 2015 16:51:06 GMT
www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimatesOn Friday, the UNEP Emissions Gap Report joined a series of studies released over the past few weeks assessing how much countries’ recent climate change announcements, or intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), contribute to combating warming. Collectively, the studies make it clear that the INDCs make a substantial contribution to bending the global emissions trajectory below our current path. However, the studies also show that without additional action, the INDCs are insufficient to limit warming to below 2°C and avoid some of the worst climate impacts. The details of the Paris Agreement are, therefore, very important to help achieve an additional bending of the emissions trajectory before 2020, to support the implementation of the INDCs and to ensure greater ambition after 2030. I doubt that they 'showed their working' in the way Bjorn Lomborg did. Even using the IPCC's own model, if all the COP21 demands were met the change by 2001 would be immeasurably small. This is a complete fraud as so many people stand to make huge amounts of money from taxing energy and several shadowy figures stand to get an insurmountable world power base - which is why all the politicians are ' convinced' (cough) of 'dangerous climate change' and the need to deindustialize their countries. Unfortunately, they are proving wildly successful in this and India and China thank them for it. |
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Post by magellan on Dec 13, 2015 7:24:11 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 13, 2015 16:14:12 GMT
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Post by magellan on Dec 13, 2015 19:25:55 GMT
Isn't he everyone's buddy? Honest, objective, non-partisan and very knowledgeable on the subject. sarc/off Obama will simply say he has the moral duty to bypass Congress and usurp the Constitution once again with an illegal Executive Order. The pen and phone will be very busy driving an already tanking economy into the ground for good.  |
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 13, 2015 20:08:48 GMT
Magellan: Yes, with all due respect, our economy is tanking. A lot of folks don't know it yet, but the early stages are extremely clear.
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Post by flearider on Dec 13, 2015 20:29:24 GMT
you know .. you yanks normally get rid of the loony prez with your gun control .. lol
what happened this time ?
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 13, 2015 20:51:56 GMT
you know .. you yanks normally get rid of the loony prez with your gun control .. lol what happened this time ? I won't touch that one with a 30-06 |
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