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Post by nautonnier on Feb 5, 2019 11:24:52 GMT
"In September of each year in 1979-2014, the sea-ice extent was remarkably negatively correlated to the heat flux (sensible heat flux + latent heat flux), and the heat flux was considerably positively correlated to the atmospheric temperature at 2 m above sea level. This result demonstrates that a reduction of Arctic sea ice will lead to changes in heat flux, thereby warming the atmosphere and increasing the temperature of the atmospheric boundary layer over the Arctic. In addition, this impact is long-lasting."How can a heat flux into the atmosphere be 'long lasting' What they appear to be saying is that the air above liquid water get sensible heat from conduction and more evaporation leading to latent heat stored by the water vapor (ice can sublimate directly into dry air). Fine but that is hardly 'long lasting' by December the water is frozen again. Also any heat in the atmosphere will be rapidly radiated to space. Am I missing something?
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 5, 2019 12:18:58 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 5, 2019 14:46:02 GMT
"In September of each year in 1979-2014, the sea-ice extent was remarkably negatively correlated to the heat flux (sensible heat flux + latent heat flux), and the heat flux was considerably positively correlated to the atmospheric temperature at 2 m above sea level. This result demonstrates that a reduction of Arctic sea ice will lead to changes in heat flux, thereby warming the atmosphere and increasing the temperature of the atmospheric boundary layer over the Arctic. In addition, this impact is long-lasting."How can a heat flux into the atmosphere be 'long lasting' What they appear to be saying is that the air above liquid water get sensible heat from conduction and more evaporation leading to latent heat stored by the water vapor (ice can sublimate directly into dry air). Fine but that is hardly 'long lasting' by December the water is frozen again. Also any heat in the atmosphere will be rapidly radiated to space. Am I missing something? Nope
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Post by walnut on Feb 5, 2019 16:27:46 GMT
I once had an old copy of "The Arabian Nights". I read about half of it.. It's not our culture but I think it was high quality literature. Good stories.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 5, 2019 21:40:46 GMT
And their new single ... Running From MBS.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 6, 2019 14:01:29 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 6, 2019 20:13:34 GMT
Seems to me that some of these chaps have been "acting" all along.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 7, 2019 11:44:11 GMT
"Met Office try to hide forecast fail Paul Matthews 17 hours ago The Met Office have today issued their latest piece of warmest propaganda, Forecast suggests Earth’s warmest period on record. It includes this graph, showing observations (black), forecast (blue) and previous forecasts (red).The climate scientists quoted seem to be in denial of the recent cooling shown in their own graph, claiming that the Earth’s average global temperature has ‘remained close’ to the 2015 peak.
But notice that in the graph there is a gap from 2015-2019, with no previous forecast shown there. Why would that be? Is it because the Met Office didn’t make any forecasts for that period?"Read the answer to this puzzle (Mike's Nature Trick'?) here:: cliscep.com/2019/02/06/met-office-try-to-hide-forecast-fail/amp/
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Post by duwayne on Feb 7, 2019 17:16:18 GMT
The Met Office decadel forecasts have continually over-predicted global warming and they have continued to try to cover up their failures. They always claim that they now have improved models and then when the models don’t work they just ignore that fact and put forth another new model. Back in 2013, their cover-up of a forecast gone bad resulted in a flurry of complaints and comments. If you don't already know, you will never guess who originally exposed the Met Office deceit. In the Guardian article linked below scroll down to the section titled “Welcome to the Eco Audit” (near the end of the article) and the first sentence in the second paragraph will reveal the “Eagle-eyed blogger” (as he was called in another article published at that time) who caught the Met Office attempting to cover up their failed decadel model prediction. www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2013/jan/09/global-warming-met-office-paused
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 7, 2019 20:34:27 GMT
t.co/m39eUbR0I8I just got off the phone with Dr. Judah Cohen. I wanted to discuss his research into what he thinks the AGW influence is on the Polar Vortex. I established he hasn't look at the solar phase at all. I was disappointed. I asked him about teasing a link out of normal variability. He said it was hard. Well, duh.........LOL. Informed him that during a Chinook, we can have a 70F temperature rise in a few hours. (Not sure he believed me, but if NOAA data is worth anything, he should be able to find this). Very cordial fellow. He did sent me a copy of the link I posted. I told him springs were getting later and later here, falls slightly longer before freezing temps. I haven't read the paper yet.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 7, 2019 20:44:42 GMT
The Met Office decadel forecasts have continually over-predicted global warming and they have continued to try to cover up their failures. They always claim that they now have improved models and then when the models don’t work they just ignore that fact and put forth another new model. Back in 2013, their cover-up of a forecast gone bad resulted in a flurry of complaints and comments. If you don't already know, you will never guess who originally exposed the Met Office deceit. In the Guardian article linked below scroll down to the section titled “Welcome to the Eco Audit” (near the end of the article) and the first sentence in the second paragraph will reveal the “Eagle-eyed blogger” (as he was called in another article published at that time) who caught the Met Office attempting to cover up their failed decadel model prediction. www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2013/jan/09/global-warming-met-office-pausedOne would think that at some point, the Met Office would realize that CO2 is not nearly as powerful as the assumptions they make.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 7, 2019 21:09:46 GMT
The Met Office decadel forecasts have continually over-predicted global warming and they have continued to try to cover up their failures. They always claim that they now have improved models and then when the models don’t work they just ignore that fact and put forth another new model. Back in 2013, their cover-up of a forecast gone bad resulted in a flurry of complaints and comments. If you don't already know, you will never guess who originally exposed the Met Office deceit. In the Guardian article linked below scroll down to the section titled “Welcome to the Eco Audit” (near the end of the article) and the first sentence in the second paragraph will reveal the “Eagle-eyed blogger” (as he was called in another article published at that time) who caught the Met Office attempting to cover up their failed decadel model prediction. www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2013/jan/09/global-warming-met-office-pausedOne would think that at some point, the Met Office would realize that CO2 is not nearly as powerful as the assumptions they make. Can you imagine the walk back that would take? The humiliation would be incredible. There are two sayings that are relevant: > "After you have convinced people that you fervently believe your cause to be more important than telling the truth, you've lost the power to convince them of anything else." [Megan McArdle] > “I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.” [Leo Tolstoy] So it will be extremely difficult for these climate 'scientists' to accept that they were wrong.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 7, 2019 22:09:23 GMT
One would think that at some point, the Met Office would realize that CO2 is not nearly as powerful as the assumptions they make. Can you imagine the walk back that would take? The humiliation would be incredible. There are two sayings that are relevant: > "After you have convinced people that you fervently believe your cause to be more important than telling the truth, you've lost the power to convince them of anything else." [Megan McArdle] > “I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.” [Leo Tolstoy] So it will be extremely difficult for these climate 'scientists' to accept that they were wrong. Perhaps the crowds with the pitch forks and long memories can help them out a bit. "In the end it was very lonely in the bunker". Leo knew his vermin.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 8, 2019 3:54:16 GMT
Can you imagine the walk back that would take? The humiliation would be incredible. There are two sayings that are relevant: > "After you have convinced people that you fervently believe your cause to be more important than telling the truth, you've lost the power to convince them of anything else." [Megan McArdle] > “I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.” [Leo Tolstoy] So it will be extremely difficult for these climate 'scientists' to accept that they were wrong. Perhaps the crowds with the pitch forks and long memories can help them out a bit. "In the end it was very lonely in the bunker". Leo knew his vermin. Those with the long memories with be too arthritic to partake in the pitchforking by then. A hair trigger on a Ruger may be preferable.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 8, 2019 5:52:22 GMT
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