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Post by Ratty on Feb 16, 2018 0:11:44 GMT
It was reading a totally illogical response to a blog post comparing water vapor and Carbon dioxide that started my research into 'anthropogenic global warming'. The illogical post that claimed that as water vapor's life in the atmosphere was short it had less effect than carbon dioxide.... and it was by none other than Professor Michael Mann He would know.
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Post by douglavers on Feb 16, 2018 2:37:39 GMT
This is what I sent to some friends:
I attach one of the best [simplified] rebuttals of CAGW I have seen.[[article shown above]]
BTW, a Professor Valentina Zharkova has produced a new model of solar activity which she and her colleagues have back-tested extensively.
Apparently, the model has superbly replicated past observed solar behaviour.
That is the good news.
The bad news is that her model predicts that solar activity is going to remain extremely quiet for several decades.
We are about to discover what impact that might have on planetary climate.
A grand geophysical experiment is now in progress, with the whole human race as observers.
I think that within three years, an outcome will be starting to appear. I am not sure the human race is going to enjoy the experience
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 16, 2018 4:47:10 GMT
This is what I sent to some friends: I attach one of the best [simplified] rebuttals of CAGW I have seen.[[article shown above]] BTW, a Professor Valentina Zharkova has produced a new model of solar activity which she and her colleagues have back-tested extensively. Apparently, the model has superbly replicated past observed solar behaviour. That is the good news. The bad news is that her model predicts that solar activity is going to remain extremely quiet for several decades. We are about to discover what impact that might have on planetary climate. A grand geophysical experiment is now in progress, with the whole human race as observers. I think that within three years, an outcome will be starting to appear. I am not sure the human race is going to enjoy the experience Assuming her model is correct but our own Dr. L Svalgaard says it is not. Even Dr Svalgaard seems to agree that SC25 will be another small one, at or slightly larger than SC24. Every previous example that we have of two sequencial low cycles seems to have resulted in serious northern hemisphere temperature reductions. The dip of the 1960s-70s was only one low cycle, and it took a while for the oceans to warm back up after that. I think that oceanic de-heating has maintained the temp bubble since 1990. ARGO shows sub-surface (100-300m) water temps declining at a steady rate since 2004 for the northern oceans. The Indian Ocean peaked in 2015 and has been falling like a rock since. The SSTs we see as warmth is heat leaving the oceans. I think the lift will soon (guess a year) be out of the sails. If the oceans cool, the land cannot significantly heat from year to year. And so begins a shift to a lower-energy climate regime and all that entails. Or so I am persuaded ... for better or worse. Hope I'm wrong.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 19, 2018 15:30:29 GMT
t.co/eDTRjYM2KxContinental United States Hurricane Landfall 1 Frequency and Associated Damage: 2 Observations and Future Risks 3 4 Philip J. Klotzbach* 5 Department of Atmospheric Science 6 Colorado State University 7 Fort Collins CO 80523 8 9 Steven G. Bowen 10 Aon Benfield 11 Chicago IL 60601 12 13 Roger Pielke Jr. 14 University of Colorado 15 Boulder CO 80309 16 17 Michael Bell 18 Department of Atmospheric Science 19 Colorado State University 20 Fort Collins CO 80523 21 22 Submitted to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 23 Date:
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 19, 2018 15:45:46 GMT
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076463/fullWe present a novel approach to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of regional cooling across the eastern U.S. (commonly called the U.S. warming hole), by defining a spatially explicit boundary around the region of most persistent cooling. The warming hole emerges after a regime shift in 1958 where annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures decreased by 0.46°C and 0.83°C respectively. The annual warming hole consists of two distinct seasonal modes, one located in the southeastern U.S. during winter and spring and the other in the midwestern U.S. during summer and autumn. A correlation analysis indicates that the seasonal modes also vary in causation. Winter temperatures in the warming hole are significantly correlated with the Meridional Circulation Index (MCI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the variability of ocean-atmosphere circulation modes is insufficient to explain the summer temperature patterns of the warming hole.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 19, 2018 16:14:32 GMT
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076463/fullWe present a novel approach to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of regional cooling across the eastern U.S. (commonly called the U.S. warming hole), by defining a spatially explicit boundary around the region of most persistent cooling. The warming hole emerges after a regime shift in 1958 where annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures decreased by 0.46°C and 0.83°C respectively. The annual warming hole consists of two distinct seasonal modes, one located in the southeastern U.S. during winter and spring and the other in the midwestern U.S. during summer and autumn. A correlation analysis indicates that the seasonal modes also vary in causation. Winter temperatures in the warming hole are significantly correlated with the Meridional Circulation Index (MCI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the variability of ocean-atmosphere circulation modes is insufficient to explain the summer temperature patterns of the warming hole. Can't see the whole article ... but did they really use just an annual Tmax and Tmin to describe an area whose temperature variance is dramatic?
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 19, 2018 17:16:57 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Feb 19, 2018 22:13:45 GMT
We make up for it:
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 21, 2018 19:03:05 GMT
Does this sound familiar? "Despite thousands of scientists, decades of work and billions of dollars spent, this hypothesis still hasn't been supported by any good evidence."Perhaps this thread should be called 'The State of Science' especially where any money is involved.... No this one is not climate 'science' it is health and nutrition, but the field suffers from almost identical problems including its own Michael Mann equivalent - Ancel Keys www.healthline.com/nutrition/saturated-fat-good-or-bad
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 22, 2018 0:26:59 GMT
Ya need a longer straw Ratty. You're lookin a little dry.
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Post by douglavers on Feb 22, 2018 4:17:31 GMT
Ratty
Can I gently point out that Broome in the semi-arid area according to your map, has had 1.5 metres of rain in two months.
This breaks their record for a whole calendar year.[ie another 10 months to go].
I have the uncomfortable feeling that our global weather paradigm has changed. Too many records are being broken
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Post by Ratty on Feb 22, 2018 5:50:25 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Feb 22, 2018 7:44:19 GMT
What!!!! That is not an Abstract I would inflict on an English student!
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 22, 2018 12:46:18 GMT
Strange - almost all other studies and observations show that where you have vegetation it is cooler due to 'evapo-transpiration' - methinks they have a sign wrong in their model.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 24, 2018 16:07:03 GMT
science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6378/900 Basak et al. present measurements of neodymium isotopes that clearly show that the deepwater column of the glacial southern South Pacific was stratified, just as would be necessary for the accumulation of old, carbon-rich water. Their data also show that North Atlantic processes were not the dominant control on Southern Ocean water-mass structure during that interval, as has been thought.
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