Natural variation

[fredzl4dh]

Interesting new paper out.
"It has long been thought that human influences already affected the tropopause. However, it seems that natural variability is still the dominating factor," said Dr. Wuke Wang from GEOMAR, lead author of the study.

thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2016/07/28/tropopause-cooling-a-part-of-natural-decadal-cycle/

[sigurdur]

"Only if we can clearly distinguish natural variability from anthropogenic influences, we can make reliable forecasts for the future development of our climate," Prof. Matthes concluded.

His statement hit the nail squarely on the head. Climate models are useful to compare runs with past climate conditions. To use as a forecast tool, with a reliability of over 50% has not been demonstrated to date.

Thanks Fred.