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Post by graywolf on Jan 13, 2017 10:00:00 GMT
With the sun already on the rise we do not have long left to 'hold on' with our protective shield? I'm not as concerned about cold as I am over potential flooding and the low , currently forming at the southern tip of Greenland , would have brought us such issues had we not a strong high deflecting it north? Of course, as noted elsewhere, this deflection brings its own set of problems so the low looks to be quite a viscous event over our side of the Arctic further limiting ice growth/thickening so laying in problems for later in the year with very low ice levels already looking dialled in?
As for the west Siberian Snow fields? Flash flooding, further permafrost degradation,sediment out wash into the Arctic basin look to be the end result of that WACCy manifestation. The insulation , from October, of the surface layer of the permafrost will mean a more rapid start of biological degradation this spring. With current year on year CO2 levels staying over 3ppm permafrost/northern soils are wiping out all of our efforts to restrict CO2 growth.
Does anybody know what happens to low solar Atlantic blocking over spring/summer? I do hope it does not just drift north with the Jet as the sun rises aver higher?
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Post by Ratty on Jan 13, 2017 11:55:22 GMT
I hear there has been a hockey stick found in Colorado?
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 13, 2017 12:54:42 GMT
Joe BAstardi just 'tweeted' that the Pacific Basin is much cooler than last year, this will result in a cooler 2017 globally.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 13, 2017 14:32:11 GMT
I hear there has been a hockey stick found in Colorado? Was it buried under all that snow??? Poor bastard. Looks like a moonshot to me.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 13, 2017 14:43:17 GMT
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Post by slh1234 on Jan 13, 2017 18:02:30 GMT
With the sun already on the rise we do not have long left to 'hold on' with our protective shield? I'm not as concerned about cold as I am over potential flooding and the low , currently forming at the southern tip of Greenland , would have brought us such issues had we not a strong high deflecting it north? Of course, as noted elsewhere, this deflection brings its own set of problems so the low looks to be quite a viscous event over our side of the Arctic further limiting ice growth/thickening so laying in problems for later in the year with very low ice levels already looking dialled in? As for the west Siberian Snow fields? Flash flooding, further permafrost degradation,sediment out wash into the Arctic basin look to be the end result of that WACCy manifestation. The insulation , from October, of the surface layer of the permafrost will mean a more rapid start of biological degradation this spring. With current year on year CO2 levels staying over 3ppm permafrost/northern soils are wiping out all of our efforts to restrict CO2 growth. Does anybody know what happens to low solar Atlantic blocking over spring/summer? I do hope it does not just drift north with the Jet as the sun rises aver higher? You must live a miserable life. Maybe stop looking at the world as such a dark and miserable place, get out of the basement and away from the computer screen, and find something to ENJOY instead of something to worry about. To use an expression my grandmother used to use when I was a child, "You cry before you're even hurt." There's a bright, enjoyable world out here. Come on out and find it.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 13, 2017 19:08:15 GMT
With the sun already on the rise we do not have long left to 'hold on' with our protective shield? I'm not as concerned about cold as I am over potential flooding and the low , currently forming at the southern tip of Greenland , would have brought us such issues had we not a strong high deflecting it north? Of course, as noted elsewhere, this deflection brings its own set of problems so the low looks to be quite a viscous event over our side of the Arctic further limiting ice growth/thickening so laying in problems for later in the year with very low ice levels already looking dialled in? As for the west Siberian Snow fields? Flash flooding, further permafrost degradation,sediment out wash into the Arctic basin look to be the end result of that WACCy manifestation. The insulation , from October, of the surface layer of the permafrost will mean a more rapid start of biological degradation this spring. With current year on year CO2 levels staying over 3ppm permafrost/northern soils are wiping out all of our efforts to restrict CO2 growth. Does anybody know what happens to low solar Atlantic blocking over spring/summer? I do hope it does not just drift north with the Jet as the sun rises aver higher? www.clim-past.net/7/543/2011/cp-7-543-2011.pdfData from this study shows that the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) shows similar trends by season with greater variability in winter (Chart 1). Charts 2 and 3 show that the GBI is inversely related to the NAO, as pointed out in the paper. Summer NAO trends have been downward since 1950 and largely negative since 2002 (Chart 2). The GBI has been heavily positive since 2006, perhaps accounting for those cooler summers in the UK since about then. Nothing in these data suggest that this will change for 2017. GBI data are only available to May of 2015 from this paper, but the inverse relationship with the NAO makes it possible to guesstimate what the GBI is doing. Chart 4 shows other CET climate variables. For the 2006-2016 period, clouds and precipitation are up and temperature is down. Anyone got a source for GBI data?
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Post by Ratty on Jan 13, 2017 22:38:21 GMT
I hear there has been a hockey stick found in Colorado? Was it buried under all that snow??? Poor bastard. Looks like a moonshot to me.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 14, 2017 0:43:04 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jan 14, 2017 10:21:46 GMT
Thx Mboy...I'll have a look later just 'snowed' under with work at the mo! I'm also trying to re find a site that would give you historic synoptic charts if you input a date, I really should organise this stuff better
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Post by graywolf on Jan 14, 2017 13:20:47 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 14, 2017 15:27:12 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 14, 2017 15:50:01 GMT
Really, what does one expect to happen anyways? It was Friday night in Sydney? Hot times? I must be getting to dog gone old. I remember warm temps, cold temps, and temps in between. A record here or there, cold or hot, doesn't mean a dog gone thing. We just had what Graywolf considers a super duper El Nino. It didn't couple with the atmosphere, as others have in the past. It didn't even drive temperatures worldwide to new highs. All well within statistical norms. Compared to previous interglacial periods, we are still COLD!! The only one close is MIS-11, and that one lasted approx 44,000 years. Graywolf: Tell me WHY MIS-11 lasted 44,000 years? The orbital parameters are very similar during each interglacial. What are we missing in this one? Why isn't it a whole lot warmer? CO2 is a radiative gas, no question about that. Is it the "climate control knob"? NOT if you look at previous periods in earth's history. The planet is greening. That is a whole lot better than the planet getting whiter as the result of large ice sheets covering major areas of North America. Which would you prefer? Myself, I much prefer the "greening planet".
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 14, 2017 16:01:14 GMT
With the sun already on the rise we do not have long left to 'hold on' with our protective shield? I'm not as concerned about cold as I am over potential flooding and the low , currently forming at the southern tip of Greenland , would have brought us such issues had we not a strong high deflecting it north? Of course, as noted elsewhere, this deflection brings its own set of problems so the low looks to be quite a viscous event over our side of the Arctic further limiting ice growth/thickening so laying in problems for later in the year with very low ice levels already looking dialled in? As for the west Siberian Snow fields? Flash flooding, further permafrost degradation,sediment out wash into the Arctic basin look to be the end result of that WACCy manifestation. The insulation , from October, of the surface layer of the permafrost will mean a more rapid start of biological degradation this spring. With current year on year CO2 levels staying over 3ppm permafrost/northern soils are wiping out all of our efforts to restrict CO2 growth. Does anybody know what happens to low solar Atlantic blocking over spring/summer? I do hope it does not just drift north with the Jet as the sun rises aver higher? www.clim-past.net/7/543/2011/cp-7-543-2011.pdfData from this study shows that the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) shows similar trends by season with greater variability in winter (Chart 1). Charts 2 and 3 show that the GBI is inversely related to the NAO, as pointed out in the paper. Summer NAO trends have been downward since 1950 and largely negative since 2002 (Chart 2). The GBI has been heavily positive since 2006, perhaps accounting for those cooler summers in the UK since about then. Nothing in these data suggest that this will change for 2017. GBI data are only available to May of 2015 from this paper, but the inverse relationship with the NAO makes it possible to guesstimate what the GBI is doing. Chart 4 shows other CET climate variables. For the 2006-2016 period, clouds and precipitation are up and temperature is down. Anyone got a source for GBI data? I pay much more attention to the Greenland high during the spring/summer period, as it affects what happens in my little neck of the woods/prairie. The rise in the index, as of late, has resulted in a much wetter pattern for the upper prairie area, central North America. How it all ties in to the Rosby waves etc I have ideas. The graph is of great interest Missouriboy. I will have to visit with my friend, who is the state climatologist. I have so dog gone much to learn!!! Not enough time to learn enough. One thing I have learned, with 97% confidence, is climatologists don't have a clue most of the time to what is ACTUALLY happening today. And they somehow believe that they can tell you what will happen in 20-50 years. They must be drinking realllllly good stuff!
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 14, 2017 16:10:40 GMT
There is a pretty interesting video from Adapt2030 over on youtube about how the AMO, PDO and solar cycles effect agricultural prices and commodities. I found it very informative and it certainly gives you something to think about as we get closer to the solar minimum. It is one thing to do research on the climate funded with other peoples money but it is an entire different ballgame when you put hard earned cash into the market based on data, research and good old fashioned common sense. Over the years I have found no better filter from politics, bias and personal agendas than putting money where your mouth is. Check it out you may find it interesting, especially if your livelihood is directly effected by the weather/climate. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHgOS-iWEFs&t=994s
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